What next for Marine Le Pen and the French far right?

Local France

31-03-2025

The long-awaited verdict
was delivered on Monday in a court in Paris
, where far-right leader Marine Le Pen and her eight co-defendants were found guilty of embezzlement, relating to 'fake jobs' created in the European Parliament between 2004 and 2016.
In addition to suspended jail terms and fines, the court handed down a ban on holding public office for the defendants - several of whom are senior figures in Le Pen's Rassemblement National party.
Crucially, Le Pen's five-year ban will take effect immediately - meaning that she cannot stand in an election while she launches appeals against the conviction or the sentence.
So what does all this mean for the French political landscape?
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Politics
At present Le Pen is MP for Hénin-Beaumont, in northern France - the ban on public office does affect that job too, but it seems unlikely that she will be stripped of that job immediately, although legal experts have this morning been divided on the subject. The majority view appears to be that she will be able to hold on to the role until the Conseil Constitutionnel makes its ruling (more on that below).
One of her co-accused, Louis Aliot, is the mayor of the town of Perpignan in southern France - however his ban on holding public office does not take place immediately, so he can hold onto his post if he chooses to appeal.
But all eyes are really on the next presidential election - scheduled for 2027 - in which Le Pen will now be unable to stand.
Appeals
Le Pen has the right to appeal against her conviction or the sentence or both, but the ban on holding public office remains in place while she goes through the appeals process.
She can, however, appeal to the Conseil Constitutionnel about the ban on holding public office, and the choice to make it effective immediately.
In French law, judges have the option to impose such a penalty
avec exécution immediate
- which they have done in Le Pen's case - or
sans exécution immediate
, which means that defendants could hold stay in politics while they launch an appeal.
Since the appeals process can take years, in Le Pen's case this is effectively the difference between being eligible in 2027 or not.
The Conseil Constitutionnel will therefore have to balance the sentence of the courts with the right to freedom of elections, as enshrined in the French constitution, and Le Pen's place in the political landscape.
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Crucially the Conseil is - compared to the courts at least - quick. Their verdicts are usually delivered in months, rather than years, and certainly well before 2027.
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How does the Conseil Constitutionnel work?
Some of Le Pen's co-defendants have already announced that they will appeal. The reaction from Le Pen's party leaders on Monday was that she had been "unjustly condemned".
The 2027 election
If the appeal to the Conseil Constitutionnel fails, the Rassemblement National party will have to consider its options for 2027.
Le Pen had already declared that she intended to be the party's candidate in the elections - she has stood in the past three presidential elections, coming second in 2017 and 2022.
The 2027 election was widely considered to be her best chance yet, due to the fact that Emmanuel Macron cannot stand again (French presidents are limited to two consecutive terms).
If she cannot stand, the most likely candidate would be her 29-year-old deputy Jordan Bardella. Ahead of the parliamentary elections in the summer of 2024, the party had put him up as candidate for prime minister if it won control of the Assemblée nationale.
However, the party failed to gain a majority and Bardella remains a Member of the European Parliament. He was not implicated in the embezzlement trail.
Current polling suggests that he is popular with voters, especially younger voters, but he could struggle with the demands of a presidential election - certainly his own party has always appeared to believe that Le Pen would have the better chance.