logo
Both Labour and the Tories should be terrified

Both Labour and the Tories should be terrified

New European02-05-2025

Reform are, of course, the night's big winers. By the end of today, it looks likely that gains by the Liberal Democrats and Greens in their target areas will show that it is not just Reform that is benefitting from the decline in the old two-party duopoly – last year's collapse in Conservative support, compounded by this year's haemorrhage of Labour votes.
Last week, previewing yesterday's Runcorn & Helsby by-election, I suggested a political version of the Micawber principle: victory by 50 votes, the result happiness; defeat by 50 votes, result misery. OK, Reform's Sarah Pochin won by just six votes. But the principle holds; and by the same token Labour can celebrate three narrow mayoral victories overnight. However, Labour's vote fell alarmingly in each of the mayoral contests; and early indications from county council contests confirm the pattern. Labour should not seek to comfort itself by claiming 'it could have been worse'.
The table below summarises the main overnight results. It compares the share of votes won by each party yesterday with the results from last year's general election, applying the figures from the relevant constituencies are added together.
As the figures show, Labour suffered double-digit declines everywhere. Their three victories, in North Tyneside, the West of England and Doncaster, were achieved with alarmingly low support: 30, 25 and 33 per cent respectively. These are not kinds of figures that have normally led to victories in the past. Coming from nowhere, Reform won Greater Lincolnshire as well as the Runcorn by-election, and ran Labour close in the other three mayoral contests. It is an astonishing performance, likely to be confirmed by the county council results later today.
What now? In the past, third-party eruptions between general elections have subsided. In the end, for more than a century, the Labour-Conservative domination has returned whenever voters have decided who they want to govern Britain. Maybe the same will happen again. But as well as the long-term social and economic trends chipping away at the old class-based party loyalties, there is a technical reason why we may be witnessing a transformation in our politics.
It's to do with the way our First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) voting system works. It rewards a) large national parties (traditionally Labour and Conservative), b) parties with specific geographical roots (notably the SNP in their good years) and c) minority parties that successfully target particular seats (as the Liberal Democrats did last year). It punishes medium-sized parties with the kind of broad support that amasses millions of votes nationally, but not enough in particular seats to have many MPs. This used to be the curse that afflicted the old Liberal party and more recently the Lib Dems. Last year it was Reform that suffered, winning half a million more votes than the Lib Dems but 67 fewer seats.
When it was just the Lib Dems trying to break the Labour-Tory duopoly, a rough rule of thumb was that they, and their predecessor parties, needed at least 30 per cent to overcome the biases inherent in FPTP. In 1983, the Liberal/SDP Alliance won just 23 seats with 26 per cent of the vote. Labour was narrowly ahead in the national vote, with 28 per cent, but because its support was more concentrated in winnable areas, ended up with 209 seats.
The arithmetic has changed. With the Greens, Lib Dems and Reform all seeking to undermine the old duopoly – and the nationalists in Scotland and Wales – local candidates need fewer votes to be elected. This, indeed, is the common feature of all the overnight results.
What is true locally is true nationally. The tipping point for a party such Reform is no longer 30 per cent. It's probably around 25 per cent. That is where they stand in the polls. Later today the BBC will publish its estimate of the national vote share from the country council elections. I would not be surprised if Reform ends up with at least 25 per cent and possibly more.
The scattering of overnight council results shows Reform winning half the seats that have declared. We have yet to hear from southern counties where Reform is weaker and the Greens and Lib Dems stronger. But, for the moment, Reform no longer suffers from an FPTP penalty. It looks as if their share of county councillors will end up broadly in line with their overall share of votes. And that transformation of the way votes translate into seats really should terrify both Labour and the Conservatives.
Peter Kellner is the founder of YouGov. You can find his Substack here

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse
Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse

South Wales Argus

timean hour ago

  • South Wales Argus

Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse

Plaid Cymru's Adam Price, the first out-gay man in his party to be elected to national office, warned prejudices based on sex, race and sexual orientation have been reinvigorated. He told the Senedd: "It is getting worse by the day, and it really represents an existential crisis for our democracy and our society." Mr Price said: "For our democracy to be effective, it has to be diverse. "Diversity trumps ability. "It's a piece of evidence in social science." The former Plaid Cymru leader called for a focus on representation of trans women and men, a community "under siege," to ensure their voices are heard in the Senedd. Mr Price highlighted harmful comments below news stories involving him in recent weeks. "That certainly won't deter me and I hope it won't deter anyone else," he said. "But we've got to do something about it collectively, haven't we?" Labour's Hannah Blythyn expressed concerns that Wales could go backwards in terms of equality of representation at the next Senedd election. Ms Blythyn told Senedd members: "I very much made an active decision when I had the opportunity to stand in this legislature because of the make-up – that there were more women here, that it was more representative." Jane Hutt, Wales' social justice secretary, acknowledged the rise of abuse, harassment and intimidation towards politicians, candidates and campaigners. She outlined voluntary diversity and inclusion guidance for political parties which aims to ensure democratic bodies are truly representative of all the people of Wales. Ms Hutt said safety costs will be exempt from spending limits for Welsh elections. Conservative Altaf Hussain warned guidance on equal representation risks crossing a dangerous line. He said: "Equality of access cannot come just by bureaucratic diktats or targets." Plaid Cymru's Sioned Williams said progress on underrepresentation of women in politics has slowed, warning the voluntary guidance was published "far too late." "Wales belongs to everyone," she said. "Everyone must have a voice in our nation's future."

Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse
Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse

South Wales Guardian

timean hour ago

  • South Wales Guardian

Senedd called to act on 'existential crisis' of abuse

Plaid Cymru's Adam Price, the first out-gay man in his party to be elected to national office, warned prejudices based on sex, race and sexual orientation have been reinvigorated. He told the Senedd: "It is getting worse by the day, and it really represents an existential crisis for our democracy and our society." Mr Price said: "For our democracy to be effective, it has to be diverse. "Diversity trumps ability. "It's a piece of evidence in social science." The former Plaid Cymru leader called for a focus on representation of trans women and men, a community "under siege," to ensure their voices are heard in the Senedd. Mr Price highlighted harmful comments below news stories involving him in recent weeks. "That certainly won't deter me and I hope it won't deter anyone else," he said. "But we've got to do something about it collectively, haven't we?" Labour's Hannah Blythyn expressed concerns that Wales could go backwards in terms of equality of representation at the next Senedd election. Ms Blythyn told Senedd members: "I very much made an active decision when I had the opportunity to stand in this legislature because of the make-up – that there were more women here, that it was more representative." Jane Hutt, Wales' social justice secretary, acknowledged the rise of abuse, harassment and intimidation towards politicians, candidates and campaigners. She outlined voluntary diversity and inclusion guidance for political parties which aims to ensure democratic bodies are truly representative of all the people of Wales. Ms Hutt said safety costs will be exempt from spending limits for Welsh elections. Conservative Altaf Hussain warned guidance on equal representation risks crossing a dangerous line. He said: "Equality of access cannot come just by bureaucratic diktats or targets." Plaid Cymru's Sioned Williams said progress on underrepresentation of women in politics has slowed, warning the voluntary guidance was published "far too late." "Wales belongs to everyone," she said. "Everyone must have a voice in our nation's future."

Firm linked to bra tycoon Michelle Mone begins court battle over dodgy Covid kit
Firm linked to bra tycoon Michelle Mone begins court battle over dodgy Covid kit

Scottish Sun

time3 hours ago

  • Scottish Sun

Firm linked to bra tycoon Michelle Mone begins court battle over dodgy Covid kit

Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) A FIRM linked to bra tycoon Michelle Mone has begun a court battle to keep £122million it received for dodgy Covid protection kit. UK health chiefs are suing PPE Medpro — which Baroness Mone, 53, and her husband Doug Barrowman, 60, both from Glasgow, had denied for years they were involved with 3 A firm linked to bra tycoon Michelle Mone will appear in court Credit: Corbis 3 The bra tycoon and husband Doug Barrowman Credit: Getty 3 Michelle Mone ahead of the State Opening of Parliament Credit: PA The High Court in London was told 25million surgical gowns had been rejected as unsuitable for the NHS as it was deemed 'non-sterile' with 'invalid technical labelling'. It was later revealed that Baroness Mone had lobbied Tory ministers on behalf of the consortium. Both deny wrongdoing, as do Medpro over gowns supplied in 2020. Paul Stanley KC, for the Department of Health and Social Care, said 'initial contact with the firm came through Baroness Mone' and she remained 'active throughout'. But he added her communications were 'not part of this case', which was 'about compliance'. PPE Medpro won two contracts worth over £200million via the UK Government's 'VIP lane' procurement process. TELLY HOST'S SHOCK By Matt Bendoris BBC host Laura Kuenssberg has revealed the interview that 'sticks' with her the most is when Michelle Mone confessed to being a liar. Scots bra tycoon Mone spent two years fiercely denying through an army of lawyers any involvement with the firm PPE Medro, which had earned over £200million worth of Government contracts to supply face masks and surgical gowns during the Covid pandemic. But in 2023 it was revealed that the Tory life peer and her three adult children had received £29million from the company via her second husband Doug Barrowman. That led to a 'Prince Andrew-style' TV showdown with the politics presenter on her weekly show Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg. Appearing alongside Barrowman, 60, Baroness Mone, 53, made the jaw-dropping confession: 'I can't see what we've done wrong. Lying to the press is not a crime.' Read more HERE It was later revealed Mr Barrowman had received more than £65million in profits from the contracts. And he confirmed he transferred £29million from the firm into a trust benefiting Baroness Mone and her three children. Neither the Tory peer nor her husband are expected to give evidence during the trial. The UK Government is seeking to recover the costs of the contract plus transport and storage expenses. Trial continues. Carol Vorderman reignites feud with ex-pal Michelle Mone in furious rant on This Morning Meanwhile Mone's ex-lawyer has denied telling her to lie about links to a scandal-hit firm. Jonathan Coad insisted the Scots bra tycoon's allegation that he did was 'not true'. Baroness Mone, 53, blamed him for her three-year refusal to confirm her connection to PPE Medpro — given £200million for Covid protection kit and now being probed by cops. Mr Coad, 67, said: 'I did not advise her she should keep her involvement secret. "The suggestion she did so by taking the advice of her lawyers is just not true. "To have Baroness Mone make allegations against me of serious impropriety was potentially very damaging."

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store