Just when Trump thought he was out, Iran pulls him back in
A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber is shown at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, before the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. © Reuters
Richard Heydarian is a senior lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines and author of "The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China and the New Struggle for Global Mastery."
The "12 Day War" between Israel and Iran ended as violently and abruptly as it started. Large flames due to massive aerial bombardments illuminated the night sky in Tehran, while Iran responded with a barrage of missiles that landed in southern Israel in the final hours of the war. Both sides grappled with heavy damage, including to residential areas and critical infrastructure, and unprecedented casualties, including the deaths of hundreds of civilians across Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump played the unexpected roles of mediating and enforcing the eventual ceasefire between the archenemies.
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The Diplomat
an hour ago
- The Diplomat
Trump Touches a Raw Nerve in Delhi
The U.S. president has not only disregarded Indian sensitivities with his recent comments on mediation but is also cozying up to Pakistan. India's relationship with the United States is under strain. On June 18, Trump hosted Pakistani Army Chief Gen Asim Munir for a lunch meeting at the White House. While his courting of Munir was probably aimed at enlisting Pakistan's support for U.S. military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and sealing deals on cryptocurrency and trade in critical minerals, the meeting is likely to have involved discussions and decisions that will impact India. 'There would have been a quid pro quo,' an Indian government official told The Diplomat on condition of anonymity. 'Trump would have agreed to provide Pakistan with new military aid and to boost its military capabilities through the sale of advanced fighter aircraft, among other things. Given Trump's newfound interest in mediation and peace-making, he could have promised Munir that he would push India to accept a settlement of the Kashmir conflict.' Trump's meeting with Munir came days after General Michael Kurilla, commander of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), described Pakistan as a 'phenomenal partner' of the U.S. in countering terrorism and praised its role in the 'arrest and extradition' of Islamic State Khorasan terrorists. Kurilla's high praise of Pakistan's contribution as a counter-terrorism partner marks an important shift in the Trump administration's perception of Pakistan. In 2017, Trump had slammed Pakistan for providing 'safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond.' Although the U.S. had given Pakistan billions of dollars in aid, 'they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting,' he said. The Trump administration's newfound appreciation of Pakistan's value in countering terrorism comes at a time when India has stepped up highlighting Islamabad's role in supporting anti-India terrorism. The U.S. support to India on this matter has disappointed Delhi in recent months. Although the U.S. expressed solidarity with India after the terrorist attack at Pahalgam on April 22, it did not support India's right to self-defense once India's launched military strikes on Pakistan, adopting instead a cautious, even neutral position, calling for a quick end to the military exchanges. Despite India's opposition to third parties intervening in India-Pakistan conflicts, the U.S. reportedly brokered the May 10 ceasefire. Not only did the ceasefire come at a time when the war was going against Pakistan, but also, Trump repeatedly boasted about having mediated the agreement and arm-twisting the two sides with trade deals to end the war. This did not go down well in India. Trump hyphenated or equated India with Pakistan, which Delhi loathes. Besides, he put the Narendra Modi government in an embarrassing spot as India has traditionally opposed third-party mediation in its conflicts with Pakistan. In effect, the U.S. president 'undermined carefully developed political understandings on key issues, especially on Kashmir and Pakistan,' C. Raja Mohan, distinguished fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defence Research, wrote in the Indian Express. Among the 'understandings' that Trump disregarded with his 'loose cannon comments was India's long-standing opposition to third parties playing a role in settling India-Pakistan conflicts,' the government official said. Washington's praise of Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts was particularly offensive to New Delhi as it came less than two months after the Pahalgam attack. Trump's courting of the Pakistani military, which India sees as the patrons of the anti-India terrorist groups, was particularly distasteful. 'Public opinion in India now tends to see the U.S. as an unreliable partner,' Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, told DW. It wasn't supposed to be this way. Trump's re-election as president was welcomed in India. Trump 2.0 was expected to work in India's favor. After all, despite bilateral differences on the Russia-Ukraine war and hiccups on immigration and trade issues, India-U.S. bilateral relations warmed during Trump's first term, benefiting from not only the personal rapport between Trump and Modi but also the strong bipartisan consensus that existed in the U.S. on the importance of India-U.S. cooperation. With Trump back in the White House, India-U.S. relations were expected to deepen, especially since the new Trump team had several officials of Indian origin or said to be closer to India on India-Pakistan issues. However, things have not gone according to that script. Since February, thousands of Indian nationals have been deported back to India for illegally entering the U.S. They were sent back in chains on a 40-hour flight home. Indian foreign ministry officials reportedly objected to their shackling and raised the issue with their American counterparts. But that did not alter the U.S. mistreatment and humiliation of Indian nationals. Then, with regard to the imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' on U.S. trade partners, Trump showed India no leniency. While the 26 percent tariff imposed on India is lower than that on several Asian countries, the U.S. has sealed a deal with China. With little over a week to go for the July 9 deadline, a trade deal with India remains elusive. Should India be worried about the downturn in its relations with the U.S.? Not overly. The U.S. has warmed up to Pakistan and its generals in the past as well, and India has weathered previous crises that emerged from fraying ties with Washington. Besides, the India-U.S. partnership today enjoys bipartisan consensus in the U.S., and draws its resilience and strength from the firm institutional foundation, shared strategic vision, converging interests and structural logic that defines the partnership. U.S. national security documents not only see India as a 'major defense partner' but also as a 'like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, active in and connected to Southeast Asia,' and a 'driving force of the Quad and a net security provider in the region.' The U.S. is no doubt important for India, but so is India to the U.S. In its response to the Trump-Munir meeting, India said last week that it is 'confident' that India's relations with the U.S. would continue to be the 'most consequential partnership of the 21st century.' 'Our partnership with the United States is wide ranging, grounded in shared democratic values and growing strategic convergence,' MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said. This confidence stems from the broad and deep foundation on which the India-U.S. partnership is based. And yet India must not underestimate Trump's capacity to damage bilateral relations in pursuit of his interests. Without responding shrilly to every remark that he makes, India should be proactive in protecting the partnership. While the White House plays a central role in foreign policy making, there are other actors, including the U.S. Congress, business corporations, civil society and the Indian diaspora, whose support India must draw upon. The powerful Indian diaspora is known to have played a key role in swinging U.S. foreign policy decisions in India's favor in the past, as with the India-U.S. civilian nuclear deal. Unfortunately, it has been reduced to playing cheerleaders at Modi-Trump public events in recent years. Instead, India should draw on the diaspora's connections to articulate not the narrow vision of any party or person, but the long-term interests of the country.
The Diplomat
2 hours ago
- The Diplomat
China's Bet on Iran: What Now?
One can imagine the shock at No. 2 Chaoyangmen South Boulevard, Beijing, the home of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, upon hearing the news that in the early hours of June 22 Iranian time, the United States had attacked, in extraordinary fashion, the three key sites of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. It was only four years ago that China inked a $400 billion, 25-yearlong strategic partnership with Iran, focusing on trade, investment, energy, infrastructure, military cooperation, and key for China, a ready and steady source of oil, presumably at preferential pricing. Yet now, China's strategic partner has just seen its nuclear enrichment program – which could lead to a nuclear bomb – attacked. What must be worst for China is that Iran didn't even see the B-2 bombers and their bunker-busting payloads coming. From a Chinese perspective, this is not just a loss of face for Iran, but also a loss of face for China. Beijing does not like to be seen backing a losing hand, much less depending upon it. It was only just over two years ago that China used, and then nominally won, a great deal of political capital when it successfully finalized a rapprochement between long-time foes Iran and Saudi Arabia. China has limited experience in engaging in such high-level international diplomacy, much less with success. However, it turns out that the real meat of the negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia took place over several rounds beginning in 2021 in Iraq and Oman. It was only in the final days of the negotiations, the United States Institute of Peace reported, that China was brought in as the closer, and was magnanimously given the win. As the institute related, 'The two regional rivals have conducted talks in Oman and five rounds in Iraq in the past two years. They could have chosen either country to get to the finish-line, but instead chose China' – shortly after Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia. Notably, China has been all but absent on the diplomatic stage during a true crisis involving Iran. Since the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, China has made several statements criticizing and condemning the U.S. actions, and questioning U.S. credibility going forward. The remarks from China, however, have been predictably boilerplate, lacking in either force or conviction. The Chinese Consulate General in New York put out a statement on June 22 saying that 'China strongly condemns the U.S. attacks on Iran and bombing of nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the IAEA. The actions of the U.S. seriously violate the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter and international law, and have exacerbated tensions in the Middle East.' The statement went on to call for a ceasefire, to keep civilians safe, and the start of dialogue. 'China,' the statement said, 'stands ready to work with the international community to pool efforts together and uphold justice, and work for restoring peace and stability in the Middle East.' Why the boiler-plate language from China? Why the reiteration of the same old tropes? Where, if China is truly Iran's friend and strategic partner, is the outrage? China's foreign policy is still on training wheels. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lacks the real-world experience with and exposure to the rest of the world to be able to successfully read the room or respond to it appropriately – at least at the rapid-fire pace necessitated by a crisis. China's near silence on the dramatic, power map changing events of June 22 expose not only its discomfort with the U.S. strikes, but also its inability to respond quickly with new ideas and leadership of its own. China and Iran find themselves on the same side of certain historical and cultural issues. To the Chinese, even the very idea of monarchy can cause a person to curl one's lip in distaste. China overthrew its monarchy in the early 20th century, and the CCP has been very successful since in teaching its citizens that the evils of emperors, and the greed of imperialists, is what kept China poor and backward for so many centuries. Iran has followed a similar trajectory since Islamist revolutionaries overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. It took decades, but finally, and often one piece at a time, the United States admitted to having collaborated with the United Kingdom to remove Iran's democratically-elected leader, which took place on August 19, 1953. Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh was the victim of a plot to secure Iran's oil for British interests, and that, as Lapham's Quarterly recounted, put him squarely in the cross hairs of 'the world's preeminent postwar powers.' The coup – which didn't work the first time, but did the second – put the Iranian monarchy in the person of the Shah firmly back in power for the next 25 years. But it also made the U.S., and the West in general, a prime target for displays of Iranian nationalism in the post-Shah era. This is another point China and Iran have in common: their rulers both find political capital among their relative domestic audiences in denouncing previous foreign involvement in their countries. The fuel that fires much of both China's and Iran's expressed anger and resentment toward the West in general also forges a bond of shared victimhood that is a common trait among autocratically-led countries. Against that backdrop, it is notable that, as Iran quite literally came under attack by the hated Americans, China sat on the sidelines, only offering some empty words of support. Indeed, Iran's foreign minster hurried to Russia – not China – in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. bombing in a quest for support. Tehran apparently understands all too well Beijing's limitations.
Kyodo News
2 hours ago
- Kyodo News
Kyodo News Digest: June 30, 2025
KYODO NEWS - 6 hours ago - 15:00 | All, Japan, World The following is the latest list of selected news summaries by Kyodo News. ---------- Japan gov't says China's lifting of import ban on seafood "positive" TOKYO - China's removal of its blanket import ban on Japanese seafood implemented in August 2023 is a "positive" move, a government spokesman said Monday. Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki said the government will continue to urge China to remove the remaining ban on fisheries produce from 10 prefectures including Fukushima imposed since the March 2011 nuclear disaster. ---------- Trump shows no willingness to compromise on Japan auto tariffs WASHINGTON - U.S. President Donald Trump made clear in an interview broadcast Sunday that he has no plans to roll back hefty auto tariffs imposed on Japan, despite its strong opposition expressed in now-stalled negotiations. Trump said his administration is ready to unilaterally send letters "starting pretty soon" to Japan and many other trading partners informing them of tariff rates for their exports to the United States. ---------- Japan PM to consider best governing framework after July poll TOKYO - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Sunday he will consider what will be "the most appropriate" framework for his coalition government after a crucial election next month for the House of Councillors where his ruling coalition is seeking to retain its majority. In an interview with Kyodo News, Ishiba called securing a majority of the 248-member upper chamber a "must-attain" goal but said it is not an easy task, at a time when conservative supporters are increasingly looking to alternatives to his Liberal Democratic Party. ---------- Japan's May industrial output up 0.5% on strong production machinery TOKYO - Japan's industrial output in May rose 0.5 percent from the previous month, marking the first increase in two months, lifted in part by metal molds used in vehicle manufacturing and other production machinery, government data showed Monday. The seasonally adjusted index of production at factories and mines stood at 101.8 against the 2020 base of 100, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a preliminary report. It followed a revised 1.1 percent decrease in April. ---------- Dozens sent to hospital near Tokyo after student sprays "insecticide" YOKOHAMA - Dozens of people were taken to a hospital from a high school near Tokyo on Monday after a student exposed them to what he claimed was an "insecticide" spray, police said. None of those affected are thought to be seriously injured, local police in Zama, Kanagawa Prefecture, said. The student at Sagami-Koyokan Senior High School told the police he "jokingly sprayed" the substance, they added. ---------- Harley-Davidson Japan faces fine over excessive sales quotas TOKYO - Japan's antitrust watchdog is set to fine the domestic unit of motorcycle company Harley-Davidson Inc. around 200 million yen ($1.4 million) for imposing excessive sales quotas on dealers in violation of the antimonopoly law, sources close to the matter have said. The Japan Fair Trade Commission will also issue a cease and desist order to Harley-Davidson Japan K.K., based in Tokyo, over pressuring dealers by implying their exclusive sales contracts might not be renewed if they failed to meet the quotas, leading some to buy unsold motorcycles themselves. ---------- China to invite Trump to Sept. military parade marking WWII victory BEIJING - China is planning to invite U.S. President Donald Trump to a military parade scheduled for Sept. 3 in Beijing's Tiananmen Square to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, sources familiar with the matter said Sunday. The United States, meanwhile, has proposed that Chinese President Xi Jinping visit the country during the same month, coinciding with a U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, the sources said. ---------- Sumo: Onosato aims to buck trend, win Nagoya meet in yokozuna debut ANJO, Japan - Newly promoted Onosato said Monday he aims to win the upcoming Nagoya Grand Sumo Tournament as a yokozuna debutant and add his name to the small group of wrestlers to achieve the feat. The 25-year-old star will compete for the first time as a grand champion at the 15-day tournament opening July 13 at the new IG Arena. Video: Mt. Shinmoe eruption in southwestern Japan
