Preparations for war on Iran - World - Al-Ahram Weekly
The US has been moving men and equipment within striking distance of the Middle East, apparently in preparation for an attack on Iran
Two weeks ago, six strategic B-2 stealth bombers considered the most powerful in their category from the 509th Wing at the Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri in the US flew to the US Diego Garcia Base in the Indian Ocean.
509th Wing pilots participated in Operation Allied Force in 1999 that attacked the former Yugoslavia with six bombers and Operation Odyssey Dawn in Libya that used three bombers in 2011. The presence of six bombers in the Indian Ocean at a distance of 3,795 km from Iran is thus a decisive move by the US administration, effectively dictating terms to an opponent while aiming a pistol at their head.
Last week, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran with 'bombing the likes of which they have never seen before' if Tehran refuses to destroy its nuclear programme and cease supporting proxy militias in the Middle East. He repeated in an interview with the US network NBC News that 'if they don't make a deal, there will be bombing.'
The next day, Iranian adviser Ali Larijani said in a television interview that 'if America or Israel bomb Iran under the nuclear pretext, Iran will be compelled to move towards producing an atomic bomb.'
This week, the country's leader Ayatollah Khamenei said during his speech on Eid Al-Fitr that 'everyone should know that our stances remain unchanged. The animosity of the US and the Zionist regime is the same as it has always been.'
'If there are any vicious acts [from the US or Israel], we aren't so sure that it will happen and we don't believe it's likely that it will come from the outside, but if it does happen, they will definitely receive a strong counterblow,' he said.
The distance limits Iran's options should it want to neutralise the threat in Diego Garcia. Its Khorramshahr missiles can barely reach the island under optimal conditions, and Iran's long-range suicide drones like the Shahed-136 may also struggle to do so, unless a ship capable of launching ballistic missiles such as the Shahid Mahdavi is deployed.
This ship is capable of launching Kheibar-Shekan missiles, which have a range of up to 1,450 km. The United States is well aware of these risks, and it has deployed Arleigh Burke-class destroyers for air defence around the island, alongside the presence of P8A anti-submarine aircraft.
In the wake of the threat from the US, Iran has abandoned the Houthis in Yemen, its strongest remaining militia in the Middle East.
A senior Iranian official told the UK Daily Telegraph newspaper that 'Iran has ordered military personnel to leave Yemen.' The move is aimed to avoid direct confrontation with the US and to scale back its network of regional proxies to focus on direct threats from the US instead.
Tehran's primary concern, the official said, was 'Trump and how to deal with him.' 'Every meeting is dominated by discussions about him, and none of the regional groups we previously supported are being discussed.'
While the Iranians are focusing on Trump's intentions towards Iran, US B-2 bombers are striking the Houthis in the most intense air campaign seen over the past decade at a cost nearing one billion dollars.
A US defence official told the US network CNN that 'they've taken out some sites, but that hasn't affected the Houthis' ability to continue shooting at ships in the Red Sea or shooting down US drones. Meanwhile, we are burning through munitions, fuel, and deployment time.'
One source said the Pentagon will likely need to request supplemental funding from the US Congress to continue the operation, but that it may not receive it. The offensive has already been criticised on both sides of the aisle in Congress, and even Vice- President J D Vance said he thought the operation was 'a mistake' in a Signal chat published by the US magazine The Atlantic last week.
The chat was in a closed group on the app that included officials such as US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth. Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor of The Atlantic, was added to the group by mistake. Hegseth shared details of the US strikes on the Houthis with precision and enthusiasm
This is considered to have been a grave mistake and a gamble with the success of the operation and the safety of its crews. The timing of US Navy planes over the targets, commonly referred to as 'play time,' was disclosed, for example, allowing enemy air defences to prepare ambushes.
The launch time of the planes was shared, signalling the most vulnerable period for attacking the associated carrier group. The vulnerability arises because its defences cannot engage drones and missiles without risking shooting down US planes as well, something that occurred last December.
The Houthis are continuing to attack US naval vessels, though these attacks usually end in failure, similar to their operations targeting Israel, whether with missiles or drones.
The US has adapted and organised its defences in a way that ensures the disruption of any offensive efforts by the Houthis. The latter are using rugged mountainous areas in Yemen to hide, staying away from the danger of airstrikes. This means the Houthis cannot be defeated through US airstrikes alone, but this must be done in conjunction with a ground operation.
The US is also sending more equipment and units to the Middle East. The open-source intelligence site OSINT says that 85 flights by heavy military transport aircraft belonging to the US Air Force, specifically, the C-17 and C-5 Galaxy, have arrived in the Middle East.
They have been accompanied by tactical military transport aircraft of the C-130J type, as well as approximately 10 aerial refuelling aircraft, including the KC-46 and KC-135. This week, the second THAAD air-defence battery arrived in Israel along with two additional Patriot missile batteries to support the country's air defences in case the Iranians decide to respond to any US/Israeli strikes.
The first month of Trump's deadline for Iran before attacking it has ended, and this has been made obvious through his statements and the extent of the US forces currently deployed in the Middle East.
The strategy is based on the idea of 'sword and shield' – in other words, not a deterrent force for adversaries but rather a force to compel the Iranian side into serious negotiations to dismantle its nuclear programme. The latter is also the pretext that Israel has been clinging to in its efforts at destroying it. It was also one of the main topics that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed with his meeting with Trump this week, alongside the Turkish project in Syria.
If a decision to attack Iran is indeed made, the only missing element will be the arrival of the second aircraft carrier group, the Carl Vinson, which crossed the Malacca Strait near the Philippines earlier this week and will arrive in the Gulf within three weeks.
All these preparations are groundwork for a campaign for which the Israeli Air Force has trained for many years, with the B-2 bombers delivering 30,000-pound GBU-57 bombs. Meanwhile, the Iranians are striving to bolster their air defences by deploying more early-warning radar along their borders in a desperate attempt to stop the destructive storm heading their way.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 10 April, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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