Many upshots of Iran's strike on US forces in Qatar

Asia Times

7 hours ago

On June 23, 2025, Iran launched a volley of missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest US military installation in the region. The strike, reportedly named Operation Basharat al-Fath ('Glad Tidings'), was Iran's direct retaliation for the US President Donald Trump's airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites days earlier.
While most of Iran's 14 missiles were intercepted by US and Qatari air defenses, one landed near the base, there were no casualties but geopolitically, the strike was seismic. While Iran had directly attacked US forces before, most notably in Iraq in 2020 – this is the first time it has struck a US base located inside a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state.
The Al Udeid attack thus marked a bold departure: an overt, calculated warning that the US military presence in the Gulf no longer guarantees insulation for host states. Iranian officials had warned that the American attack on its territory has 'expanded the scope of legitimate targets.'
That threat is now no longer hypothetical, because with Al Udeid, Iran has firmly placed US bases on Arab soil inside its retaliatory framework.
Qatar responded by closing its airspace and within hours, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE followed, shutting down one of the busiest air corridors in the world. Commercial flights were canceled or diverted.
Qatar Airways suffered major disruptions, even Dubai International Airport suspended operations briefly. The economic fallout from just one attack illustrated the fragility of Gulf infrastructure in any direct US-Iran conflict.
Though airspace was reopened later, the region was shaken. Even Gulf states with recent tensions like Bahrain and the UAE quickly expressed solidarity with Qatar. Bahrain called the strike a 'blatant violation of sovereignty,' and the UAE warned of the 'urgent need to de-escalate.'
Iran's strike had not only raised the military stakes but also triggered a rare moment of diplomatic unity born out of shared vulnerability.
For Washington, the missile strike raises urgent questions about deterrence. The US justifies its military footprint in the Gulf as a shield for allies and a check on Iran. Yet Tehran showed it was willing to directly target US assets despite the risk.
Trump had boasted that his strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear infrastructure and warned of 'devastating consequences' if Iran retaliated. Instead, Iran responded in a proportionate but highly symbolic manner, firing the same number of missiles as bombs dropped by the US, avoiding casualties and sparing oil infrastructure.
That calibration mattered. According to Trump himself, Iran had issued advance warning of the strike. This allowed US and Qatari defenses to prepare, yet the fact that one missile still slipped through and that it reached so close to US personnel was enough to shake confidence.
Al Udeid houses not only the US Air Force's Central Command operations but also thousands of American personnel. It has long been a logistical hub for operations in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.
Iran's ability to strike it, even symbolically, reveals the limits of missile defense and the new reality: Tehran can reach even the most fortified American positions.
President Trump dismissed the strike as a 'very weak' response. He emphasized that no Americans or Qataris were harmed. But this rhetoric, aimed at projecting dominance, risks alienating U.S. allies, as, from Qatar's perspective, having 14 missiles rain down on its territory, including one that evaded interception, is anything but trivial.
Trump's framing may suggest to Gulf states that their suffering matters less than American casualties. That could undermine faith in US. protection. Qatar 'reserved the right to respond,' and officials in Doha and beyond are likely recalculating the cost of hosting US forces in a region where American decisions can now provoke direct retaliation.
Iran's strike has obliterated the illusion that Gulf monarchies can host US power while staying neutral. Qatar has long balanced its role as a US partner with a working relationship with Tehran, they share the world's largest gas field, and Doha has hosted Iran-West diplomacy in the past. Oman has played mediator for decades but those strategies are harder to sustain when missiles are flying overhead.
After the strike, Gulf states scrambled diplomatically. The UAE and Bahrain, despite ideological differences with Qatar, issued strong condemnations. These states recognize that if Iran can strike Al Udeid, it can just as easily target US facilities in the UAE or Bahrain. The GCC, fractured in recent years, may find common cause in the crisis.
Iran's boldness reminded them that in the next round of escalation, they too may find themselves on the frontlines.
Trump announced a 'complete and total ceasefire' between Iran and Israel hours after the missile strike. Reports suggest Oman and Qatar quietly facilitated backchannel talks. For now, both Washington and Tehran seem inclined to pause; neither side wants an uncontrollable war, but the damage has been done.
Iran has now established a precedent: US military action on its soil will be answered with direct strikes regardless of whether they land in Iraq or in the Gulf. Al Udeid has become a case study in how deterrence is shifting. Iran doesn't need to destroy a base; it just needs to show that no place is safe.
In the aftermath, US policymakers face hard choices. Fixed installations, such as Al Udeid, are highly vulnerable to precision missile attacks. Dispersion of assets, mobile basing, or stronger regional air defenses are all being debated. But these are not just technical questions; they require political consent from host nations.
After this strike, that consent may no longer be automatic. Gulf leaders must weigh whether hosting US forces increases their security or paints targets on their territory. The equation has changed. Washington may need to provide not just Patriot batteries, but a diplomatic strategy that prevents such flare-ups in the first place.
The June 2025 flare-up among the US, Iran, and Israel may go down as a regional inflection point. It revealed how tightly entangled Gulf states are in global rivalries. Qatar was not a belligerent, yet found itself under fire.
Neutrality collapsed the moment missiles crossed its borders. Going forward, Gulf diplomacy will likely intensify. Doha and Muscat may again try to broker quiet channels between Iran and the West. At the same time, the political cost of confrontation has grown. Allies like Qatar now know if conflict resumes, they may bleed first.
Iran's strike may not have caused physical devastation but it delivered a strategic jolt. It showed that Gulf immunity is no longer guaranteed. In today's Middle East, even hosting US forces comes with risks that can no longer be wished away.