After Canada, the anti-Trump backlash moves to Australia
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A few months ago, it seemed a dead certainty that Pierre Poilievre would be Canada's next prime minister. His Conservatives had a double-digit lead in the polls over the incumbent Liberals and Poilievre channeled the mounting frustrations of an electorate fatigued by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decade-long tenure. But by Tuesday morning, Poilievre's hopes for national victory were dashed, and also, perhaps, his political future: Not only had the Conservatives failed to win Monday's national election, but their leader looked set to lose his own parliamentary seat.
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Hamilton Spectator
3 hours ago
- Hamilton Spectator
‘No buyers' remorse' for voters as Doug Ford's Tories enjoy big poll lead
Premier Doug Ford's third-term Progressive Conservatives are enjoying an extended honeymoon with voters, a new public-opinion survey suggests. In the first major Ontario political poll since Ford's Tories were re-elected in the snap Feb. 27 provincial election, Abacus Data found the governing party well ahead of its rivals. The PCs were at 49 per cent to 28 per cent for Bonnie Crombie's Liberals, 14 per cent for Marit Stiles' New Democrats and five per cent for Mike Schreiner's Greens. Ford defied the odds Thursday becoming the first premier to win three consecutive majority 'We're seeing the highest vote share for the Tories we've measured since we've been tracking and we see Ford's personal numbers better than they've been since we've really been tracking,' said Abacus president David Coletto. 'At least right now, there's no buyer's remorse in re-electing the PCs,' said Coletto. In the February election, the Tories received 43 per cent of the popular vote to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 18.6 per cent for the New Democrats and 4.8 per cent for the Greens. Abacus surveyed 1,000 Ontarians from June 2 through last Thursday using online panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. While opt-in polls cannot be assigned a margin of error, for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have one of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. That means the poll was conducted during the first ministers meeting in Saskatoon — where Ford played a prominent role with Prime Minister Mark Carney — and as the Tories were ramming through their controversial Bill 5 designed to fast-track mining and infrastructure projects. Prime Minister hints at prioritizing energy infrastructure — such as pipelines — after first While the premier received mostly positive press for working with Carney to counter U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war against Canada, Queen's Park has been roiled by protests against the Protect Ontario By Unleashing Our Economy Act . First Nation leaders have warned there will be 'fierce resistance' if long-standing treaty rights are overridden by the law passed last week. 'Bill 5 has generated, at least from my vantage point, no ... negative implications for the popularity of this government at least right now,' said Coletto, warning that could change. 'There's a lesson for those opponents of it — that they're going to have to do far more to get the public engaged, to be opposed to this at a time when people are really focused on just getting things done.' Indeed, Ford's current standing appears largely due to his vocal stance against Trump's tariffs and a willingness to work with Carney's re-elected federal Liberals. 'There is this moment where Ontarians, like the rest of the country, are rallying around their political leader. I don't think people are overly optimistic, but I do think they get a sense that their political leaders are working together ... working with a common purpose,' said Coletto. 'We have a common goal or enemy, or however you want to frame it,' he said, pointing to the existential threat to Canada that Trump poses. The pollster said Carney's popularity is 'definitely benefiting the Liberal brand in Ontario,' which is encouraging news for Crombie's provincial Grits. But 'the collapse of the federal NDP has put downward pressure on the Ontario NDP' that's hurting Stiles' party. 'They're at the lowest we've measured them at in our tracking — 14 per cent,' said Coletto. In terms of personal popularity, Ford was at 44 per cent positive, 33 per cent negative for a plus 11 per cent favourability rating with 21 per cent of respondents neutral and two per cent unsure. Stiles was at 28 per cent positive, 25 per cent negative for plus three per cent with 31 per cent neutral and 16 per cent uncertain. Schreiner was at 24 per cent positive and 23 per cent negative for plus one per cent with 34 per cent neutral and 20 per cent unsure. Crombie, the subject of a multimillion-dollar pre-election attack ad blitz from Ford's Tories , was at 31 per cent positive and 33 per cent negative for minus two per cent with 25 per cent neutral and 11 per cent uncertain.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Net migration set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels
Net migration is set to plummet to pre-Brexit levels in the next year, the Government's chief immigration adviser has said. Prof Brian Bell, the chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), claimed that falling job vacancies and an increase on the restrictions for foreign workers and students were likely to push net migration down from its current figure of 430,000 to 200,000 within a year. That would return it to the pre-Brexit net migration average of between 200,000 and 250,000 before Boris Johnson became prime minister and opened up work and student visas. Prof Bell's claim would mean net migration would fall to a quarter of its record peak of 906,000 in the year ending June 2023. However, he warned that it would probably result in staff shortages in hospitality and retail, including chefs, waiters and shopworkers, which will be excluded from the list of highly-skilled or shortage occupations to benefit from overseas recruitment. Sir Keir Starmer's White Paper has proposed that some 180 occupations will no longer be eligible to recruit overseas. Migrants will only be able to obtain a job if the position is graduate-level or above in an attempt to end low-paid migration. 'Foreign workers will be limited to occupations that are crucial for the industrial strategy or for the missions of the Government. Key sectors that will not be eligible therefore are, for example, hospitality,' said Prof Bell. 'So we've seen over the last few years that, for example, chefs, there's quite been quite a lot of visas issued for chefs. That will cease once that sector is removed from eligibility, and it won't be added back in because it's not part of the industrial strategy. 'You would see hospitality suffering. Retail will be unlikely to access it, whereas advanced manufacturing and life sciences will still have access, partly because they're more likely to be graduate jobs anyway and so remain eligible.' Labour's efforts to reduce net migration follows restrictions introduced at the start of last year by the Conservatives to bar foreign workers and students from bringing in their dependants and the introduction of higher salary thresholds for migrants seeking skilled jobs in the UK. Prof Bell said the Tories' measures, combined with a slump in vacancies, would cause net migration to fall further than had been expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility. 'I think it's possible that we'll get down to more like the 200,000 mark,' he said. Official data published on Tuesday showed that the number of available jobs fell by 63,000 between March and May to 736,000 vacancies as companies held back on hiring and replacing workers who left. However, he forecast that as the economy grew net migration would revert to between 250,000 and 300,000. It could fall lower depending on the impact of the White Paper plans to require foreign skilled workers to be graduates, ban the overseas recruitment of foreign care workers and raise English language standards. 'I think we'll revert to about 300,000 although probably a little lower given the White Paper's recent changes which, if enacted, will reduce net migration by perhaps about 80,000 at the average. So somewhere just below 300,000 would seem like a plausible medium-term scenario,' said Prof Bell. His comments came as he launched a report by the MAC which warned that a proposed reduction in family visas aimed at reducing net migration risked breaching human rights law. The MAC said that raising the annual salary threshold required for a Briton to bring their foreign partner or spouse to the UK from its current £29,000 to £38,700 is 'most likely' to conflict with rules ensuring rights to a family life under the European Convention on Human Rights. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Family visa income threshold should be lower, review says
The minimum income threshold for family visas should be relaxed, a government-commissioned review has recommended. A report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has suggested a reduction from the current level of £29,000. It warned against previous proposals to raise the threshold to the same level as for skilled workers - £38,700 a year - saying it could breach the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). The Conservatives said that the UK should leave the ECHR if it "stops us from setting our own visa rules". Article 8 of the ECHR enshrines the right to family life. The threshold is the minimum income a British citizen or settled resident must earn to bring their partner to join them in the UK. If the partner is already in the UK on a valid visa, their income also counts towards the minimum figure. Most applications are made by people not already living in the UK. The MAC suggested a range of possible new thresholds. It said a level between £23,000 to £25,000 would enable families to support themselves. A threshold of between £24,000 to £28,000 meanwhile would put more emphasis on economic wellbeing - both of the families themselves and for taxpayers. It said it did "not understand the rationale" for setting the family visa threshold at the £38,700 level for skilled workers, as the two visas have "completely different objective[s]". A £38,700 level would be the "most likely to conflict with international law and obligations". It is the government's decision whether to accept any of the MAC's recommendations. Prof Brian Bell, chairman of the MAC, said that balancing family life and economic wellbeing was a "real trade-off". "There is a cost to the UK economy and UK taxpayers of having this route, and we should just be honest about that and say there is a trade-off," he said. "But similarly, on the other side, people who say 'we should set it at very high numbers to make sure that we don't lose any money' ignore the massive impact that has on families and the destruction of some relationships and the harm it causes to children." A higher threshold would also have a "negative impact on the family life of a larger number of people", the MAC said. It noted many families with lower incomes still earn enough to support themselves even if they do not make a net positive fiscal impact on the country. It said an adult would need to earn £27,800 to have a neutral impact on the public finances - and £40,400 for a couple to have no impact in the first year a spouse arrived in the UK. The MAC did not recommend a higher threshold for families with children, saying the impacts on family life for them would be "particularly significant". Net migration halved in 2024 to 431,000, ONS says Home Office rows back on family visa salary level How many people come to work and study in the UK? In 2023 the previous Conservative government announced plans to raise the salary threshold to £38,700, as part of plans to cut the level of migration. But they backed down following criticism that this would keep families apart, settling on a £29,000 threshold with plans to gradually increase it later. Labour did not implement those further rises when the party came into government and asked the MAC to review the threshold. The committee said the threshold of £29,000 was already high compared to other high-income countries it had looked at. The MAC said it "was not possible to predict with any confidence" the impact different thresholds would have on the level of net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country. It did suggest lowering the threshold from £29,000 to roughly £24,000 may increase net migration by up to 8,000 people. Net migration in 2024 was an estimated 431,000 people, down almost 50% on the previous year. This followed record high levels in recent years, with the government under political pressure to get numbers down further. The MAC also criticised the Home Office for its data collection, saying insufficient data "greatly hindered" their review. A Home Office spokesperson said the government was considering the review's findings and would respond in due course. Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp said migration figures remain too high and that the government "must urgently re-instate the Conservative plan to further increase the salary threshold". "If the ECHR stops us from setting our own visa rules, from deporting foreign criminals or from putting Britain's interests first, then we should leave the ECHR," he said. The ECHR, which was established in 1950, sets out the rights and freedoms people are entitled to in the 46 signatory countries and is a central part of UK human rights law. Last month, the government said it would bring forward legislation to clarify how aspects of the ECHR should apply in immigration cases.
