How the Edmonton Oilers' deployment versus elites offers some surprises

New York Times

19-03-2025

As Edmonton Oilers coach, Kris Knoblauch has eschewed line matching. His philosophy is to deploy Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as often as possible and let the opposition worry about matchups.
That's a good plan, or has been until recently. Is it still an optimal approach?
McDavid faced elite opposition as a rookie in 2015-16, and that level of competition hasn't let up since. In his first season, he played 39 percent of his five-on-five time against the best, and that number is 35.3 percent this season (most severe opposition on the team among forwards).
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As one might expect, McDavid scorches the soft parade. In the last two seasons, the captain has played 575 minutes against the easiest competition. The Oilers have outscored opponents 51-41 despite an on-ice save percentage of less than .830 in those minutes. That's over 5 goals per 60 when he's playing against lesser players. He could use a save.
What happens when he plays against the best?
If we compare the past two seasons of McDavid's on-ice performance versus elites, some interesting facts emerge:
All numbers via Puck IQ
There's a lot to unpack here.
First, and perhaps most surprising, McDavid's ice time versus elites has increased this season. His overall goal share at five-on-five is down, suggesting a reduction in time against elites (and deploying Draisaitl more in this situation) would be the play here. Such is not the case in 2024-25.
McDavid's DFF percentage (Dangerous Fenwick, it's smart Corsi and directly parallels expected goals) is in the same range year over year. McDavid delivered good results a year ago, and a look under the hood this year suggests his line should be firing on all pistons.
His DFF relative to his fellow Oilers is pristine in both seasons, but stronger in this one. These are the numbers of a hockey giant playing against the league's best.
However, when we reach the actual on-ice results, the story turns.
The gap between seasons in goal percentage is devastating, since the line appears to be doing everything right.
What are the reasons? First, the goaltending is off and that's a known issue. The save percentage indicates it and all goalie metrics year over year confirm it.
Is that all? I think it's fair to suggest the Oilers, as a group, are playing a more responsible defensive game that sees each line being risk-averse. That suppression of creative plays appears to be impacting the No. 1 line severely.
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This may be contributing to the downturn. It's also fair to suggest the No. 1 line's wingers have been in a funk as shooters all year.
In summary, goaltending, more attention to defensive detail, the wingers delivering less and McDavid having fewer opportunities to wheel under the new coaching template are all possible contributors.
What about Draisaitl?
If the top line is being impacted by goaltending, a suppression of its own offence due to being more responsible and downbeat personal seasons offensively, the Draisaitl numbers year over year should be similar. Fair? These are numbers versus elites.
All numbers via Puck IQ
The numbers are not similar.
Draisaitl, like McDavid, is seeing an increase in ice time versus elites this season. Knoblauch doesn't line match in the traditional sense of the word, but he's using his best players for increased minutes against the league's best this year.
Draisaitl has increased his performance level relative to teammates by a stunning margin. This season, he's in the range of McDavid in DFF relative to teammates. The big man is having a career year in this area.
Draisaitl's goal share is 50 percent, superior to the McDavid line this year. That's breaking news.
The key difference is that Draisaitl's line has increased its share just a little, enough to play elite opponents at par. Meanwhile, the McDavid line has fallen off in a material way.
The Knoblauch style has kicked some of Draisaitl's offence to the curb, but the payoff in goals-against is one goal every 60 minutes.
Every coach would take that kind of improvement. It allows the team to stay in a game longer and to gather more standings points.
The most curious difference between the two performances this season is in save percentage. Luck is part of it, but how much? Can the goaltending be blamed for this extreme gap? Why is this happening during McDavid's minutes, and not when Draisaitl is on the ice?
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In all minutes this season (including elite, mid- and low-level opponents) McDavid is surrendering more goals per 60 compared to Draisaitl (3.09 to 2.3) while the save percentage (.875 for the captain, .910 for Draisaitl) marches in lock step with the elite totals.
What's going on?
Using Natural Stat Trick's line tool, we can acquire an excellent overview of the two men together and apart.
When McDavid and Draisaitl are on the ice together, the team's save percentage is .883. McDavid solo? The save percentage is .870 this season. When Draisaitl is without McDavid, the save percentage blossoms to .923, via Natural Stat Trick.
The save percentage for Edmonton when both are off the ice is .915.
This is in all game states and with both goalies (Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard) contributing.
All of the forces discussed here could be contributing to this vexing problem.
The goaltending isn't strong with McDavid on the ice but corrects immediately when he's off the ice.
Draisaitl's goals for per 60 have cratered but the payoff comes in chopping off a goal against per 60 when the line is deployed. That's a massive difference and gets Driasaitl to 50 percent.
Bottom line: Luck is clearly part of this, as is the goal scoring from McDavid's wingers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman). However, Draisaitl has played with lesser wingers often this year, securing better results.
The one conclusion we can draw from this is that the style of play preferred by Knoblauch appears to be better suited to Draisaitl's game.
Can a team play different styles depending on what line is on the ice? That would seem untenable.
The Oilers have hit a wall with McDavid on the ice against elites this season. Looking at all minutes, the lack of timely saves bleeds into the McDavid-Draisiatl minutes. It's such an outlier compared to McDavid's past that the mind boggles.
Is there a way to fix this before the playoffs? That's the question.