Mirtle: Why the Maple Leafs winning ugly shouldn't surprise anyone right now

New York Times

23-04-2025

Travis Green stepped to the podium after a 6-2 loss in Game 1 and was quick to point out his team was the better five-on-five club analytically.
Two days later, after another tough result for his team, the Ottawa Senators coach was again bullish about how his team had controlled play for long stretches of Game 2's 3-2 overtime loss.
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'We probably deserved a better fate tonight,' Green said, adding, 'I really liked the way we played tonight.'
On one hand, you can see where he's coming from. He's coaching the underdogs and his young charges have had the puck a lot in this series. Ottawa has attempted 148 shots through two games to lead the NHL playoffs early on, and they've limited Toronto to just 45 shots while generating 61 of their own.
The Senators are ahead on basically all the underlying numbers — scoring chances, expected goals, high danger chances — but they're behind on pucks in the net and wins on the board.
Typically, you'd call that tough luck and expect a team in that situation to break through at home in Game 3, possibly evening the series before it heads back to Toronto a week from now. And that may well happen.
But the thing is, the Leafs have done this the entire season. This is who they are. They were outshot 47 times this season — and they went 33-12-2 in those games, a 119-point pace, the best mark in the NHL in that category. They were actually better in games when they gave up more.
Part of that is they really haven't pursued Corsi excellence all year. Instead, they've scored first fairly regularly, pushed out into the lead by the midway point in a lot of games, had a great power play and goaltending, and been able to hang on for victories again and again.
It hasn't always been pretty. It hasn't always looked sustainable or tactically wise. But it's undeniable that it's a formula that has worked now for seven months, as they reeled off a 108-point season and two more victories here to start the playoffs.
Craig Berube Hockey has looked very little like Sheldon Keefe Hockey, in terms of earning style points. And we saw a lot of reasons why in Game 2, as the Leafs struggled to break the puck out with control or generate much of anything for long stretches of the night. That allowed Ottawa to push back into the game, overcoming an early 2-0 hole to eventually tie things late when there was a miscommunication near the Toronto goal that turned into an Adam Gaudette tip play in front with five minutes left in regulation.
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Normally, coughing up a two-goal lead and playing as poorly as the Leafs did in the second period would be cause for prolonged concern. But Berube didn't panic. He hardly seemed to change his approach at all, including putting Max Domi out early in overtime even though he had struggled managing the puck in regulation.
And the coach was rewarded with a big play three minutes into the extra frame, with Domi delivering the winner, top corner.
Other than the raised stakes, it felt a lot like a lot of other Leafs wins this season.
Afterward, Berube acknowledged his team's second period wasn't ideal. But he was otherwise pleased with how they'd played: another strong performance from netminder Anthony Stolarz, timely goals from his stars, and strong box-outs in front of the net from his hard-nosed D.
The coach had sidled up to his local diner and ordered 'the usual,' in other words.
'The first period was really good,' Berube said. 'I liked our start a lot. We came out playing on our toes, got to our forecheck, we were aggressive, got a good lead, the power play came through again. Second period I thought that they were the better team. We didn't make plays. We kind of looked like we were just protecting the lead a little bit and didn't advance it and get to the offensive zone enough. Took a couple penalties.
'Third period was fine. We were in good shape. The goal was the first shot we gave up in the third period, so we were playing the right way and doing the right things. It was a mistake and mistakes happen. But we stayed with it and ended up getting the win.'
Berube didn't shrug at the media podium after he delivered those last few lines, but he could have. His tone, as usual, was calm and collected. He even cracked a joke — about the big playoff goals he had scored in his career ('I've got a couple') — and added that while periods of the game were 'frustrating,' riding that out was part of the plan.
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That, he explained, is how you win in the playoffs.
'As the coach, we're asking our players to be composed,' Berube said. 'I've got to be composed, too. Talk to them about things, try to motivate them a little bit on the bench, get them going again, get them skating.'
Blocked shots, Game 2:
Toronto – 32Ottawa – 6
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) April 23, 2025
The Leafs' previous issues in the playoffs are well-documented by this point, and a big part of the problem over the years is they've played tight and lost their way with games on the line. All throughout this season and so far in this series, they've taken on the persona of their coach, the 3,149-penalty-minute enforcer who has been far more of a teddy bear players' coach than an in-your-face taskmaster in Year 1 in Toronto.
It's worked wonders, on the ice and off of it, where even through tough stretches the Leafs have been far more relaxed and controlled.
The real test of all this will be as the series gets down to its inflection point in elimination games. It is, as Mitch Marner said after the game, 'going to get even harder.' So far, however, the Leafs have played to their identity and taken the franchise's first 2-0 lead in a playoff series in 23 years.
And that identity is, without question, that of the man behind the bench.
(Top photo of Auston Matthews: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)