A nuclear strike on Britain is a real possibility. We must accept that calmly
The Strategic Defence Review announcement this week that the MoD and the NHS must prepare for nuclear attack and that the British Army must be able to fight and survive in a radiation contaminated environment has caused some upset and alarm. President Putin has just told Donald Trump he will exact severe revenge on Ukraine for destroying his nuclear bombers: there are those who fear that he might follow through on previous nuclear threats.
Certainly, when the 'N' word is mentioned, amongst the uninitiated or those with overactive imaginations, panic ensues. We should not panic, but the Kremlin's regular nuclear threats towards London and Kyiv – and Russia's massive use of chemical weapons in Ukraine – must be taken seriously: very seriously.
But when I say there is no call for panic, I am confident. I have dealt with real world chemical attacks and I am well versed in the realities of dealing with nuclear strikes. All threats can be mitigated. It is the threat we miss, or think too difficult to counter, that is likely to cause us strategic upset.
The threat we have not mitigated today is that of a tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine – or against Britain. Putin would be likely to calculate that we would not launch a massive strategic counterstrike, probably resulting in Armageddon, in response to such an attack. And we have no credible tactical nuclear options, having unwisely decommissioned these in 1997 as part of the 'peace dividend'. Funnily enough it was also in 1997 that the Ukrainians gave up their nuclear weapons, a decision they surely regret now.
Let us hope that talk of the UK acquiring F-35A jets armed with tactical nuclear weapons leads to some action: this would be a credible deterrent against a tactical attack.
Alongside this, we must indeed prepare again, as we did in the Cold War, to survive and operate after a nuclear and or chemical strike. The MoD and NHS have been directed to stockpile kit to show not least to the Russians that we are resilient to such an attack, creating doubt in the Kremlin as to how effective it might be.
The Strategic Review puts domestic production of military kit at the heart of the overall strategy, and for once this is not a problem. Britain is fortunate that in Avon Protection in Wiltshire we have the leading manufacturer of gas masks on the planet, providing the US, the UK, most of Nato and now also the Ukraine army with respirators. We also have Kromek plc in Durham who are the world leaders in radiation detection and monitoring. These two essential firms will help a lot in delivering the level of resilience required to put the Russians off – and hopefully the levels of assurance to calm the panickers at home.
We live in extraordinary times and with Presidents Trump and Putin calling the shots, unfortunately anything is possible, including nuclear attack. Let us hope that this time Trump can pull Putin back from the brink, and we can bring the nuclear balance in Europe back to equilibrium.
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