Women's March Madness upset predictions: Can Harvard pull off a stunner?
It wouldn't be March Madness without upsets, and the 2025 postseason has gotten off to a good start with surprises aplenty in the conference tournaments. William & Mary won the CAA as the ninth seed; James Madison lost the Sun Belt title despite being undefeated in conference play; a pair of San Diego schools (UC San Diego and San Diego State) won their conference crowns as No. 4 seeds; and Oregon State took down the top two seeds in the WCC for an automatic bid a year after the Pac-12 collapsed, threatening the Beavers' program in the process.
But the women's NCAA Tournament isn't as upset-friendly in the early rounds as conference tournaments. Host sites give the top-four seeds an extra advantage, and for all the talk of parity, that doesn't necessarily extend to the full 68-team field. In 2024, there was one first-round upset and three more in the second round for a ratio of one every 12 games. That picked up in the later rounds on neutral sites, as half of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games were upsets by seed.
As we look at the first round of this year's NCAA Tournament, keep in mind that chaos isn't terribly likely, and maybe that's for the best in the long run so that the rest of the tournament will deliver marquee matchups. For now, here are five first-round games that seem most likely to create fireworks.
Harvard enters the NCAA Tournament 11th nationally in NET rating, per CBB Analytics, compared to 28th for the Spartans. Considering only Quad 1 games (since Harvard's Ivy League schedule wasn't necessarily as challenging as Michigan State's in the Big Ten), the Crimson's NET rating of plus-4.0 points per 100 possessions still exceeds Michigan State's (minus-1.0). This is a clash of styles between Michigan State's pace (96th percentile) versus Harvard's tendency to walk up the ball — the Crimson's pace is in the 12th percentile. It's easier to slow teams down than speed them up, and considering Harvard runs a press of its own for 40 minutes, the Crimson should figure out the Spartans' pressure without getting flustered. It's the year of the Ivy League, with three teams in this year's field. Harvard has the best shot of getting a win, and in the process, earning a unit distribution in the women's tournament's new financial era.Mind if we dance a little?#GoCrimson x #BelieveIt pic.twitter.com/hLvobQSTD6— Harvard Women's Basketball (@HarvardWBB) March 17, 2025
Diamond Johnson started her college career in the Big Ten at Rutgers before transferring to NC State and then landing with the Spartans for the last two seasons. She has played Maryland twice, scoring 18 and 17 points in a loss and a win, and knows what to expect from a Brenda Frese team. That's a level of familiarity that mid-majors don't always have with power conference opponents. Johnson averages 19 points per game while shooting 53.6 percent on 2s and 34.9 percent on 3s; she could realistically be the best player in this contest, which is the perfect recipe for a giant killer.
Norfolk State is also one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, which the Spartans do on more than a quarter of opposing possessions. That is of particular concern for the Terrapins, who lost point guard Bri McDaniel to a season-ending injury. Another factor working in Norfolk State's favor? Geography. Maryland is hosting, but the Spartans' campus is less than four hours away, which should allow for a sizable traveling party. As a word of caution, No. 13 seeds are historically unlikely to win games, only pulling off the upset seven times in tournament history (5.8 percent of the time). Perhaps Norfolk State has the juice.
I'm hedging here, because I really believe only in the upset potential of the Cyclones. Audi Crooks has a track record of dominating undersized Big Ten teams in the first round, and despite the awesome perimeter prowess of the Wolverines, I don't know who is supposed to guard Crooks since 6-foot-5 Yulia Grabovskaia comes off the bench. With Emily Ryan and Addy Brown in the backcourt, Iowa State can put together a reasonable defensive game plan on Syla Swords and Olivia Olson. The Cyclones' inconsistency is a concern, and they'll have to win a game just to get to the Michigan matchup. But they have Crooks, and that gives them a shot.Go to work 🙌🌪️🏀🌪️ pic.twitter.com/OGYrgCj1jn— Cyclone Basketball (@CycloneWBB) March 8, 2025
Whenever the committee tries to engineer a perfect matchup, something gets in the way. Last season, Louisville was on track to face LSU, featuring transfer Hailey Van Lith, in the second round, but the Cardinals were upset by Middle Tennessee State (the lone upset of the opening round!). This year, Louisville and Van Lith, now with TCU, are again on a collision course, but Nebraska stands in the way. And this is a good Huskers team that moves and shoots the ball well, especially from 3-point range (37.2 percent for the season). Unlike the best Jeff Walz teams, this year's Cardinals are better on offense than defense and could get run out of the gym by Nebraska, especially since they don't defend the 3-point line well.
Truthfully, this pick is somewhat wild. A No. 14 seed has never won an NCAA Tournament game in the women's bracket, and FGCU isn't historically great. However, this is a rematch of last season's first-round matchup when the Eagles lost by three. Statistically, this iteration of FGCU is better than in 2024 (by NET rating), though the Sooners are also much improved, and have a new cheat code in the form of Raegan Beers. If the Eagles can win the 3-point battle — and Oklahoma is prone to giving up a high volume of 3s (22.2 per game) — then perhaps FGCU can finally pull off its upset, one year later.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Nebraska Cornhuskers, Michigan State Spartans, Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, Maryland Terrapins, Oklahoma Sooners, Norfolk State Spartans, Harvard Crimson, Louisville Cardinals, Iowa State Cyclones, Michigan Wolverines, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament
2025 The Athletic Media Company
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
NBC Sports
12 minutes ago
- NBC Sports
With no players left from last season's team photo, Baylor begins summer practice with new roster
WACO, Texas — Baylor coach Scott Drew had plenty of players for the first practice of the summer Wednesday, about two months after the team photo from last season was widely circulated on social media with an X marked over all 14 of those players since none was returning to the Bears. Only four of those players exhausted their college eligibility. Nine others left in the transfer portal and one-and-done guard VJ Edgecombe could become Baylor's highest pick ever in the NBA draft later this month. 'Guys you didn't want to lose and were valuable, we haven't had many that we've lost. Whenever you do, that just tears at a coach, because you feel like you didn't do your job,' Drew said this week. 'With the portal, I think we've all gotten used to a lot more turnover in a hurry, and not to take things necessarily personal.' The Bears rebuilt their roster with eight transfers and a four-player signing class with a five-star prospect and the son of a NBA champion. Among the 14 players at the first practice was Cameron Carr, the former Tennessee guard who transferred to Baylor in the middle of last season long after that team photo session. One of the former Bears was guard Robert Wright, who averaged 11.5 points and 4.2 assists a game as a freshman last season and had reportedly agreed to a lucrative NIL deal to stay before transferring to BYU for an even bigger package. 'You know people are going to leave. Rob, obviously, was someone we had an agreement with. When you make an agreement, you think you're done,' Drew said, without getting into any specifics. 'Obviously that was a surprise to us, but again, the staff did a great job of putting together a roster and team. That's part of, hopefully, the House settlement, where you get to a point where you know who's on your team and when they're locked in, they're locked in.' The eight incoming transfers have more than 500 of games played combined, including guards Dan Skillings, who played 100 games over three years for Cincinnati, and JJ White, who started 75 of 99 games at Omaha over the same period. Juslin Bodo Bodo is a 7-foot post from Cameroon, started all 71 of his games for NCAA Tournament team High Point the past two seasons. Obi Agbim, a 6-3 guard, was the Mountain West newcomer of the year after averaging 17.6 points and 3.4 assists in 29 games last season for Wyoming. Five-star prospect Tounde Yessoufou, a small forward from St. Joseph High School in California, leads the signing class that also includes Andre Iguodala II, whose father was a four-time champion over 19 NBA seasons with four teams; Italian forward Maikcol Perez and big man May Soyoye. Baylor, Gonzaga and Houston are the only teams to win at least one game in each of the past six NCAA Tournaments, though the Bears have lost in the second round the past four years since their national championship in 2021. Drew and his staff will get an early look at the new squad with Baylor representing the United States at the World University Games next month in Germany. 'Any year you get a foreign tour, it's huge. ... Since we're returning 0.0 (percent of our) scoring, this give us all an opportunity,' Drew said. 'The games will be good for those that can play in it. But the practices will be great for everyone. And then, the one thing everybody leaves out is you do these team-bonding activities. There's nothing better than being overseas, that really brings you together a lot more than when you have all the distractions you do in the United States.'
Hamilton Spectator
25 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
With no players left from last season's team photo, Baylor begins summer practice with new roster
WACO, Texas (AP) — Baylor coach Scott Drew had plenty of players for the first practice of the summer Wednesday, about two months after the team photo from last season was widely circulated on social media with an X marked over all 14 of those players since none was returning to the Bears. Only four of those players exhausted their college eligibility. Nine others left in the transfer portal and one-and-done guard VJ Edgecombe could become Baylor's highest pick ever in the NBA draft later this month. 'Guys you didn't want to lose and were valuable, we haven't had many that we've lost. Whenever you do, that just tears at a coach, because you feel like you didn't do your job,' Drew said this week. 'With the portal, I think we've all gotten used to a lot more turnover in a hurry, and not to take things necessarily personal.' The Bears rebuilt their roster with eight transfers and a four-player signing class with a five-star prospect and the son of a NBA champion. Among the 14 players at the first practice was Cameron Carr, the former Tennessee guard who transferred to Baylor in the middle of last season long after that team photo session. One of the former Bears was guard Robert Wright, who averaged 11.5 points and 4.2 assists a game as a freshman last season and had reportedly agreed to a lucrative NIL deal to stay before transferring to BYU for an even bigger package. 'You know people are going to leave. Rob, obviously, was someone we had an agreement with. When you make an agreement, you think you're done,' Drew said, without getting into any specifics. 'Obviously that was a surprise to us, but again, the staff did a great job of putting together a roster and team. That's part of, hopefully, the House settlement , where you get to a point where you know who's on your team and when they're locked in, they're locked in.' The eight incoming transfers have more than 500 of games played combined, including guards Dan Skillings, who played 100 games over three years for Cincinnati, and JJ White, who started 75 of 99 games at Omaha over the same period. Juslin Bodo Bodo is a 7-foot post from Cameroon, started all 71 of his games for NCAA Tournament team High Point the past two seasons. Obi Agbim, a 6-3 guard, was the Mountain West newcomer of the year after averaging 17.6 points and 3.4 assists in 29 games last season for Wyoming. Five-star prospect Tounde Yessoufou, a small forward from St. Joseph High School in California, leads the signing class that also includes Andre Iguodala II, whose father was a four-time champion over 19 NBA seasons with four teams; Italian forward Maikcol Perez and big man May Soyoye. Baylor, Gonzaga and Houston are the only teams to win at least one game in each of the past six NCAA Tournaments, though the Bears have lost in the second round the past four years since their national championship in 2021. Drew and his staff will get an early look at the new squad with Baylor representing the United States at the World University Games next month in Germany. 'Any year you get a foreign tour, it's huge. ... Since we're returning 0.0 (percent of our) scoring, this give us all an opportunity,' Drew said. 'The games will be good for those that can play in it. But the practices will be great for everyone. And then, the one thing everybody leaves out is you do these team-bonding activities. There's nothing better than being overseas, that really brings you together a lot more than when you have all the distractions you do in the United States.' ___ AP college basketball:
San Francisco Chronicle
37 minutes ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
With no players left from last season's team photo, Baylor begins summer practice with new roster
WACO, Texas (AP) — Baylor coach Scott Drew had plenty of players for the first practice of the summer Wednesday, about two months after the team photo from last season was widely circulated on social media with an X marked over all 14 of those players since none was returning to the Bears. Only four of those players exhausted their college eligibility. Nine others left in the transfer portal and one-and-done guard VJ Edgecombe could become Baylor's highest pick ever in the NBA draft later this month. 'Guys you didn't want to lose and were valuable, we haven't had many that we've lost. Whenever you do, that just tears at a coach, because you feel like you didn't do your job,' Drew said this week. 'With the portal, I think we've all gotten used to a lot more turnover in a hurry, and not to take things necessarily personal." The Bears rebuilt their roster with eight transfers and a four-player signing class with a five-star prospect and the son of a NBA champion. Among the 14 players at the first practice was Cameron Carr, the former Tennessee guard who transferred to Baylor in the middle of last season long after that team photo session. One of the former Bears was guard Robert Wright, who averaged 11.5 points and 4.2 assists a game as a freshman last season and had reportedly agreed to a lucrative NIL deal to stay before transferring to BYU for an even bigger package. 'You know people are going to leave. Rob, obviously, was someone we had an agreement with. When you make an agreement, you think you're done,' Drew said, without getting into any specifics. 'Obviously that was a surprise to us, but again, the staff did a great job of putting together a roster and team. That's part of, hopefully, the House settlement, where you get to a point where you know who's on your team and when they're locked in, they're locked in." The eight incoming transfers have more than 500 of games played combined, including guards Dan Skillings, who played 100 games over three years for Cincinnati, and JJ White, who started 75 of 99 games at Omaha over the same period. Juslin Bodo Bodo is a 7-foot post from Cameroon, started all 71 of his games for NCAA Tournament team High Point the past two seasons. Obi Agbim, a 6-3 guard, was the Mountain West newcomer of the year after averaging 17.6 points and 3.4 assists in 29 games last season for Wyoming. Five-star prospect Tounde Yessoufou, a small forward from St. Joseph High School in California, leads the signing class that also includes Andre Iguodala II, whose father was a four-time champion over 19 NBA seasons with four teams; Italian forward Maikcol Perez and big man May Soyoye. Baylor, Gonzaga and Houston are the only teams to win at least one game in each of the past six NCAA Tournaments, though the Bears have lost in the second round the past four years since their national championship in 2021. Drew and his staff will get an early look at the new squad with Baylor representing the United States at the World University Games next month in Germany. 'Any year you get a foreign tour, it's huge. ... Since we're returning 0.0 (percent of our) scoring, this give us all an opportunity,' Drew said. 'The games will be good for those that can play in it. But the practices will be great for everyone. And then, the one thing everybody leaves out is you do these team-bonding activities. There's nothing better than being overseas, that really brings you together a lot more than when you have all the distractions you do in the United States.'
