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Yahoo
28 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Fed Versus Trump on Tariffs Impact Will Soon Be Put to the Test
(Bloomberg) -- It's a widely held belief among economists that President Donald Trump's tariffs will boost inflation notably over the next few months. But muted price increases so far have called that assumption into question, emboldening the White House and opening up divisions at the Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Transit System Votes to Cut Service by 45%, Hike Fares Squeezed by Crowds, the Roads of Central Park Are Being Reimagined Sao Paulo Pushes Out Favela Residents, Drug Users to Revive Its City Center Sprawl Is Still Not the Answer Mapping the Architectural History of New York's Chinatown Anticipation of firmer inflation has kept the US central bank from delivering interest-rate cuts this year as it waits to see what happens. The Trump administration is applying intense pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to bring down borrowing costs, and two Fed governors in recent days have publicly diverged from Powell by asserting a cut could be appropriate as soon as July. A pair of key reports in the coming weeks — the monthly jobs report due Thursday and another on consumer prices due July 15 — will be critical in determining the central bank's next steps. Both are expected to finally begin reflecting the impact of tariffs, but any surprises could change the schedule for rate cuts. 'One of the things that makes it such a difficult situation is that we simply haven't done this sort of experiment in the past,' William English, a professor at the Yale School of Management and former high-ranking Fed economist, said of the tariffs. 'We're outside the range of experience for a modern US economy, and so it's very difficult to be confident about any forecast.' Trump and his allies have escalated attacks on the Fed and Powell in recent weeks, motivated by data showing inflation remained tame through May despite the tariffs put in place. The president has lobbed several insults at Powell, calling him a 'numbskull' and 'truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government.' Other Trump administration officials and some congressional Republicans — oftentimes more reticent to weigh in on monetary policy — have joined in as well. Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said on June 23 that there is 'no reason at all for the Fed not to cut rates right now.' Hassett, who is seen as a possible replacement for Powell when the Fed chair's term expires next year, emphasized data due in the coming weeks: 'I would guess that if they see one more month of data, they're going to really have to concede that they've got the rate way too high,' he said. The debate reflects the delicate situation the Fed is in as it aims to avoid a policy mistake. Should officials cut rates just as tariff-induced price pressures kick in, they may have to resort to more aggressive measures later on. But holding rates at an elevated level to combat inflation that never materializes risks restraining the economy unnecessarily, potentially damaging the labor market in the process. Forecasters expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months. Powell told Congress in testimony last week he expects 'meaningful' price increases to materialize in June, July and August data as the levies work their way through the economy. But he added Fed officials are 'perfectly open to the idea' the impact could be smaller than feared, 'and if so, that'll matter for our policy.' The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its report on consumer prices for June on July 15, two weeks before the central bank's next policy meeting. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman — both Trump appointees — have broken step with Powell and their other colleagues to raise the possibility of a rate cut next month if the data cooperate. 'I think we've got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation,' Waller said in a June 20 CNBC interview, adding the central bank could always bring a halt to rate cuts again if necessary. 'We've been on pause for six months to wait and see, and so far the data has been fine.' Still, investors currently see only about a 20% chance of a July move and are instead betting the next cut will come in September, according to federal funds futures. Tariff Math Benign inflation readings through May suggest companies are finding ways, at least for now, to avoid price hikes despite Trump's tariffs on dozens of US trading partners — and widespread uncertainty over how long the duties will last and the level where they'll ultimately settle. One potential explanation is companies are working through inventories of imports they frontloaded in the first quarter to get ahead of the levies, said Josh Hirt, a senior US economist at Vanguard Group. Hirt's calculations suggest that, on average, importers this year have paid an effective tariff rate lower than what Trump has put in place, largely because so much was brought in before they took effect. Another source of uncertainty Powell discussed in his testimony is just how the costs of the tariffs will be split between exporters, importers, retailers, manufacturers and consumers. 'In the beginning, it will be the importer that pays the tariff, but ultimately it will be spread out among those five,' Powell said, adding that data suggests at least some of the impact will fall on consumers. What Bloomberg Economics Says... 'After a brief lull in April and early May, container traffic from China to the US is rising again, with year-to-date import volumes on pace to exceed normal levels at least through summer. If that pace is sustained, US store shelves should be well-stocked at the holiday season. That likely means less need for firms to pass on tariff costs this year.' — Estelle Ou and Andrej Sokol, economists Before the July 15 inflation report comes equally consequential monthly data on employment, due from the BLS on July 3. So far this year, there's been little indication that tariffs have put a dent in hiring, which has allowed the Fed chair and many of his colleagues to maintain that a solid labor market means there's no rush to cut rates. But as with the inflation data, forecasters have largely maintained that any potential labor-market impact of the trade policy upheaval wouldn't be visible before the release of the June figures. In a Bloomberg survey, economists said they expect the this week's report will show the unemployment rate in June crept up to 4.3%, which would mark the highest level since 2021. Bowman, in a June 23 speech, said Fed officials should 'recognize that downside risks to our employment mandate could soon become more salient, given recent softness in spending and signs of fragility in the labor market.' Monthly consumer spending figures published Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed a drop in outlays in May as households pulled back on discretionary services like travel and dining, and forecasters warned higher prices in the months ahead would put more pressure on consumption. English, at Yale, said the impact of tariffs will depend on factors which are difficult to measure. But 'the kind of intuition that there's going to be some pass-through of the tariffs to prices just feels right,' he said. 'I am not yet thinking that the basic story is wrong.' 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Forbes
31 minutes ago
- Forbes
Two Generations, One Home: Solutions For Ageing Societies & Companies
Sheila & Dela, Homesharers In an ageing world grappling with the dual crises of elder loneliness and unaffordable housing for the young, one social enterprise in the UK has quietly created an elegant, human-centred solution: homeshare. Founded in 2019, Two Generations connects older householders with younger home-sharers, creating intergenerational matches that foster companionship, offer practical help, and reduce housing stress for both sides. As Lisa Goldsobel, Head of Operations, explained in an interview, the idea isn't just timely—it's transformative. "We don't find lodgers, we find companions," she says. In 2025, for the first time, due to falling birthrates and increasing life expectancy, working-age adults' caring responsibilities will switch from being primarily focused on children to elderly parents. This will have a significant workforce impacts. It's projected that two million UK workers will reduce their hours to care for a dependent. A further 2.6 million will stop work altogether. Lisa Goldsobel, Head of Operations New solutions are desperately needed at both ends of the generational spectrum. The older need connection, the young affordable housing. Two Generations' CEO Sam Brandman cites a few key UK stats that summarise the challenge: The Model: Companionship, Not Care Goldsobel emphasises that Two Generations is not a caregiving service. 'Homesharers are not carers,' she said in an interview, 'They are flatmates with heart. They may prepare meals, run errands, or take walks—but mostly, they offer presence.' Definitions: Homeshare is a scheme that carefully pairs: The impact is profound: "We've had householders tell us they sleep better knowing someone is in the house. Family members call to say, 'I can breathe again knowing Mum isn't alone.'" The matches aren't random. They are the secret sauce to the initiative's success. Two Generations uses a combination of tech-enabled matching and deep human insight. "We have bespoke, award-winning technology that suggests top matches," says Goldsobel. "But then we interview everyone to ensure the fit is right." The average match lasts about a year, with many lasting far longer. One pairing involved a gentleman losing his sight who loved opera. He was matched with a young soprano studying at London's Royal College of Music. A match made in heaven. "They talked like they were speaking another language—a lot of Puccini and Verdi—and were both delighted. She sang to him nightly." Bottom Line: A Win for Every Generation The genius of the model is its multiple benefits for several generations in a single service: Home-owners receive around 10 hours of support per week for a symbolic contribution of £99. Home-sharers pay £399 monthly—often less than a third of London rental prices. "We ensure finances aren't a barrier," Goldsobel notes. "We offer bursaries to both sides. It's not a tenancy—it's an agreement built on support and shared lives." Corporate Awakening: Elder Care as a Workplace Issue As caregiving becomes a central midlife pressure, companies are feeling some of the pressures growing on their employees. "More people are looking after their parents than their children - for the first time in UK history," says Goldsobel. "One in four employees in the UK are now caregivers. Six hundred people leave work every day to care for an elder. It's becoming a major workplace issue." Two Generations offers homesharing as a service to employers which can be included as part of their corporate benefits package. Given the growing prevalence of eldercare relative to childcare, companies will want to quickly start treating elder care as they do childcare. By offering homesharing as an employee benefit, they retain talent, reduce absenteeism, and show they understand and support intergenerational responsibility. The response is promising. Large employers like Sainsbury's are implementing elder care policies. Wellness and housing platforms like Perkbox and HEKA are adding home-sharing to their offerings. Merck has just signed on. Companies in France are organising to create a coordinated policy and status for employee-carers. "We're seeing the penny drop," Goldsobel says. "Smart companies are waking up." Culture Shift: From Individualism to Interdependence While intergenerational living is natural in many Asian cultures, Anglo-Saxon countries have prioritised independence. But as life expectancy rises, isolation and loneliness in later life has become its own epidemic. "Loneliness has the equivalent negative health impact of smoking 15 cigarettes a day," Goldsobel notes. 'And it's avoidable. We can go back to living together, learning from each other, and building bonds.' She adds: "Success can be shared." Two Generations is part of a quiet revolution. It challenges the myth that ageing is a lonely business and that youth must struggle to find affordable housing. It reframes ageing as an opportunity for connection, empathy, and exchange. What Next? Two Generation's vision is to scale the concept and the adoption: "We want home-sharing to be a natural solution people think of when they say, 'How can I help Mum? How can I stay in the city I work in?'" Because in a world where we live and work longer, we may also need to learn to live together - again.
Bloomberg
32 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
UK Says Turkey's Eurofighter Bid Gains Full Consortium Backing
Turkey's bid to buy Eurofighter Typhoon jets has won support from all consortium members, the UK said, raising prospects for a deal previously blocked by Germany. 'We are certain all four consortium partners support this sale,' UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told Hurriyet Daily News, referring to the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain. His comments were published Monday ahead of a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Ankara.
