CONCACAF Gold Cup Futures Odds, Picks: MEX, USA Favored Entering Quarters
Entering Sunday's quarterfinal match vs. Costa Rica, Patrick Agyemang (right) and the USA have 2-to-1 odds to win the Gold Cup, per DraftKings.
Entering Sunday's quarterfinal match vs. Costa Rica, Patrick Agyemang (right) and the USA have 2-to-1 odds to win the Gold Cup, per DraftKings.
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
While the USA roster participating in this year's CONCACAF Gold Cup hardly resembles the first-choice XI that we'll see in action at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it's no surprise to see the Americans among the favorites to win the Gold Cup.
With group play in the books, eight teams are still alive in the final major international tournament before the 2026 World Cup here in the States next summer.
Gold Cup Quarterfinal Schedule, Betting Odds
Below is the schedule for the quarterfinals of the Gold Cup. Below are the odds via DraftKings, as of June 25, for all four quarterfinal matchups (all times ET):
Panama vs. Honduras, Sat., 7:15 p.m. (PAN -145 // Draw +285 // HON +400)
Mexico vs. Saudi Arabia, Sat., 10:15 p.m. (MEX -210 // Draw +310 // SA +600)
Canada vs. Guatemala, Sun., 4 p.m. (CAN -300 // Draw +390 // GUA +800)
USA vs. Costa Rica, Sun., 7 p.m. (USA -170 // Draw +300 // CR +450)
The setup of the bracket means the winner of Canada-Guatemala will take on the winner of USA vs. Costa Rica, while the other semifinal matchup will pit the winners of Panama-Honduras and Mexico-Saudi Arabia.
Both Gold Cup semifinal matches will take place on Wednesday, July 2 (7 p.m. and 10 p.m.), followed by the Gold Cup final at NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday, July 6.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Winner Odds Entering QF
Odds (DK, BetMGM) Mexico +150 USA +200 Canada +500 Panama +800 Saudi Arabia +1400 Costa Rica +1600 Honduras +2500 Guatemala +5000
DraftKings and BetMGM both expect the Gold Cup to once again come down to a battle between USA and Mexico. In fact, as of June 27, the Gold Cup winner odds for all eight quarterfinalists are identical at the two sportsbooks.
Gold Cup Betting Analysis, Picks, Best Bets
Anyone familiar with CONCACAF shouldn't be surprised to see that oddsmakers expect one of the three North American powers -- Mexico, USA or Canada -- to win this tournament.
USA and Mexico have alternated as tournament winners of the last seven Gold Cups, with El Tri winning in 2023, 2019, 2015 and 2011, while the Americans won in 2013, 2017 and 2021. This year marks the 18th edition of the Gold Cup, with Mexico (9), USA (7) and Canada (1) having won all 17 previous Gold Cups.
USA Gold Cup Betting News, Outlook
It's an understatement to call the USA squad at this Gold Cup shorthanded. Key pieces who are out include Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Antonee Robinson, Sergiño Dest, Yunus Musah, Tim Weah, Weston McKennie and Gio Reyna.
Under former Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino, who was hired to replace Gregg Berhalter following a disappointing showing at least year's Copa America on U.S. soil, the young American squad took down Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia and Haiti in Gold Cup group play, but it has been far from dominant.
And the less said about how this team looked against Turkey and Switzerland in two pre-Gold Cup friendlies, which extended its losing streak under Pochettino to four matches, the better.
Mexico Gold Cup Betting News, Outlook
Mexico, like USA, has endured a tumultous last few years, including a group-stage exit at the 2022 World Cup and an early elimination from last year's Copa America.
But under Manager Javier Aguirre -- who is in his third stint as coach of the Mexican national team -- El Tri emerged from group play as the betting favorite over the USA and Canada after beating the Dominican Rebuplic and Suriname and drawing Suriname in the group stage.
Canada Gold Cup Betting News, Outlook
Canada is expected to handle Guatemala in the quarters. That would likely set up a must-see Canada-USA clash in the Gold Cup semifinals (assuming USA beats Costa Rica). The Canadians not only reached knockout play in the Copa America last summer, but made it to the semifinals, where they lost to Argentina after knocking off Venezuela in the quarters.
Two months ago, Canada lost to Mexico in the CONCACAF Nations League semifinals on March 20, but beat USA 2-1 in the third-place match.
Well-known Canadian manager Jesse Marsch has been a vocal critic of US Soccer in recent years, and even without Bayern star Alphonso Davies (who is dealing with a torn ACL), Canada will have the best player on the field in Jonathan David if we do get a USA vs. Canada semifinal matchup.
2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup Best Bets
Mexico's (+150) chance to reach the final without playing either the USA or Canada in the semis makes it the safest bet to win its second straight tournament at the expense of its North American rivals.
Playing Panama can be a headache in CONCACAF for any opponent (just ask the USA, which lost to Los Canaleros in the semifinals of the 2023 Gold Cup and again in group play during the 2024 Copa America), but I do like Mexico to find a way past Panama if those two meet in the Gold Cup semifinals.
Panama might be a tempting longshot in that one, though, after three decisive wins in group play, including a 4-1 beatdown of Jamaica on Tuesday night.
But if I have to give a pick and a best value play, I'm going with Mexico as the pick (1 unit) and Canada as the best longshot/value play at +500 (0.25 units) -- Panama is not getting enough respect, but I'm not quite willing to back them to get through El Tri.
The Canadians have given the full-strength versions of USA plenty of trouble in recent years, and I expect Marsch to have his side ready to pounce on this uninspiring version of the USMNT.
I'd love to be wrong, but USA has just not been good enough lately, and this squad does not have anything resembling the talent advantage it typically boasts. With that in mind, fading this American side under Pochettino is the right move until we're proven otherwise.
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