Hidden Killers: Inside Ukraine's Combat Drone Statistics

Forbes

16-04-2025

Birds of Magyar is one of Ukraine's most lethal drone units, having grown rapidly from a platoon in 2022 to a full regiment at the end of 2024. Robert Brovdi, the unit's larger-than-life commander, is well aware of the power of online media and the unit publishes videos with kill statistics every month on its YouTube channel. In March they hit over 5,000 targets. Beyond the dizzying display of exploding Russian tanks, the numbers from Birds of Magyar give fascinating insight into how the drone war is conducted and what is really doing the damage.
As previously noted, kill claims from drone units are carefully audited because they contribute to a points system which determines how many drones are shipped to the unit the next month, and they are considered generally accurate.
In particular, the videos reveal some surprising truths about the drones being used and the breakdown between the photogenic FPVs and the rarely-seen night bombers. Known as 'Baba Yaga'' to the Russians, these heavy bombers carry bigger weapons, but their attacks are less visually impressive. Usually there is nothing to see but a burst of white and black in a thermal imager, with no indication of what the target was or how badly it was damaged (see 0:56-0;59 in video below).
Birds of Magyar state that this month they expended a total of 7,874 FPV drones, accounting for 67% of the attacks.
They also state that they flew 3,582 heavy bomber sorties, which would make up another 31%. These would generally drop much heavier weapons than carried by the FPVs.
The remaining 2% of attack sorties were likely carried out by Mavic-type quadcopters on bomb-dropping missions.
What we do not know is the breakdown of how many targets were hit by bombers compared to FPVs. OSINT analyst Andrew Perpetua, who reviews every single drone kills video coming out of Ukraine, believes that the night bombers success rate is likely much underrated. He also that their effects are indistinguishable from artillery, and they may account for the large number of destroyed vehicles which were hit by unknown weapons,
Of the 5,334 targets hit 1,848 or 35% are recorded as destroyed, from 11, 601 sorties.
On the crudest count then takes an average 2.2 drone sorties to damage a target and 7.1 to destroy it. However, this number is questionable value because a target can be anything from a single Russian soldier to a bunker complex.
While drone videos going viral on social media show tanks or other high-profile targets getting destroyed, these are a statistical minority of all strikes.
Summarizing the Magyar statistics, we find that, in March, 274 armored vehicles were hit, plus 69 artillery pieces, as well as along with 569 soft vehicles including trucks and vans. There were also 149 motorcycles.
Less glamorous targets also feature. These include 174 antennas, radar and uncrewed camera systems, which can be disabled with high-precision strikes to deny communications and intelligence.
But by far the largest number of strikes when on the lowest-value targets: individual Russian soldiers, and structures – buildings, trenches and bunkers.
1,701 individual Russian foot soldiers were hit, of whom 1,002 are recorded as killed (59%). These are in addition to the casualties in the thousand or so vehicle hits listed above.
The full tall for March 2025, via Google translate
Birds of Magyar
2,170 hits were scored on structures, of which just 125 are recorded as destroyed (6%). A small drone may kill the occupants of a building, trench or bunker without significantly damaging the structure. A thermobaric warhead, or multiple bombs from a Baba Yaga, may result in complete destruction, but this is rare as the numbers show.
One thing this definitely shows is that there are more than enough drones to target every single Russian, and FPVs are frequently used to hunt down individuals on foot.
Another is that armored vehicles are rarely seen. The front line is composed of Russian soldiers in trenches, so these are the main targets, followed by the trucks that supply them.
What we cannot tell is how the credit can be divided between bombers and FPVs which have overlapping target sets. The big multicopters are mainly seen hitting fixed targets like defensive positions or, occasionally, parked vehicles, but occasionally chase moving targets. FPVs are effective against light mobile targets like trucks and foot soldiers. And both types can destroy armored vehicles. Hitting a building is much easier than hitting a Russian soldier running and hiding in woodland, but a hit is far more likely to kill a person on foot.
The bombers operate mainly but not exclusively at night. FPVs operate mainly in the daytime, though Birds of Magyar does also have a significant number of FPVs with thermal imagers for night operations.
An additional complication is that Birds of Magyar's bombers also carry out drone minelaying missions, on a large scale, carefully placing anti-tank mines on roads and tracks used by Russian vehicles. It is not clear if these are included in the general statistics.
The video states that the unit lost 52 bombers during the month, and that the life cycle of each bomber is an average of 69 sorties before being shot down. This shows that Russian efforts to stop the bombers, with interceptor drones and other means, are still largely ineffective. It also means that the cost-per-sortie for a bomber costing (say) $20k is less than $300, making them competitive with FPVs. However, this may change as Russian interceptors become more common.
Equally, as Ukraine explore new arming options including guided bombs and grenade and rocket launchers for the multicopters, they may become even more effective.
The statistics also include the loss of 228 'Mavic' type consumer quadcopters in the month, with 10,252 reconnaissance missions flow, giving an average of 45 flights per drone. This is very much more than earlier on in the war and suggests that operators are now able to stay back and avoid Russian jamming.
What we do not know is what proportion of the 7,874 FPVs succumbed to jamming and what proportion made it through to the target. Anecdotally jamming losses may be as high as 50% for some units, but Birds of Magyar are starting to deploy fiber optic FPVs which are immune to jamming, including this one which flew underground in a building used by Russian soldiers.
It is also interesting to compare the Birds of Magyar statistics with the overall figures for Ukraine. In March and April, Birds of Magyar accounted for 6-10% of the total number of tanks and other armored vehicles, but only 1-2% of the amount of artillery. The Ukrainian military claim to destroy more far more artillery than armored vehicles, but for Birds of Magyar these figures are reversed.
This is surprising given that Birds of Magyar have perfected their technique of destroying artillery pieces by having an FPV approach at dead slow speed and blast a hole in the gun barrel, a tactic regularly displayed in their videos.
This indicates somebody else is claiming most of the artillery kills. This may be a reflection of the lack of artillery at the section of front where Birds of Magyar are fighting; or another unit with specialist equipment may be tasked with destroying artillery.
Another useful data point is the figure of 200,000 FPVs produced in Ukraine per month at the start of this year, stated by Ivan Havryliuk, Deputy Minister of Defence. Assuming no stockpiling, this suggests that Birds of Magyar use around 4% of the total supply of FPVs roughly line with the proportion of the total kills claimed.
Finally, comparing this month's data with previous months downs just how rapidly Birds of Magyar are increasing their kill rate. A year ago, in March 2024 the unit hit 293 targets. By December 2024 this was up to 2966, now it is over 5,000. This reflects the rapid growth of the unit and the fact that, given an increased supply of drones, they will score more hits.
Scaling up FPVs production – the number per month should more than double during the course of 2025 – will directly translate into more Russian casualties and equipment destroyed.
'There are a lot of numbers but they matter,' says the video commentary. 'We have a long and fierce battle ahead.'
This is certainly true. But even Russia's huge army cannot survive this sort of attrition indefinitely, and Birds of Magyar's numbers show just how well Ukraine can fight even without foreign weapons.