Nato will force Britain to spend 3.5pc on defence

Telegraph

2 days ago

Nato will force Britain to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2032, The Telegraph understands.
On Monday, Sir Keir Starmer said he had an 'ambition' to reach 3 per cent by the end of the next Parliament, but stopped short of a firm commitment.
However, at a summit in The Hague later this month, Nato countries will commit to a new target of 3.5 per cent, plus an additional 1.5 per cent on defence-related infrastructure by 2032.
Increasing defence spending from the current pledge of 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent would cost the UK around £30 billion – equivalent to a 4p increase in the basic rate of income tax.
It is likely to intensify pressure on the Government to say how it will fund higher defence spending at a time when Labour backbenchers are fighting plans to save money through cuts elsewhere.
Sir Keir has so far committed only to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2028. The Government intends to hit 3 per cent but has refused to set out a timetable or how this will be achieved.
On Monday, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said increasing defence spending would require tax rises and cuts elsewhere ahead of a spending review next week.
Paul Johnson, the director of the think tank, told Times Radio: 'It really does seem to me that the only choice that is available, if we're going to go through all of those things, is some really quite chunky tax increases to pay for it.'
A report by the IFS said that if defence spending was increased to 3 per cent of GDP, and health received 3.4 per cent, cuts of 1.8 per cent a year in other departments would be required unless more money was found.
On Tuesday, John Healey, the Defence Secretary, refused to rule out tax rises to pay for increased defence spending.
Asked whether he believed tax rises would be acceptable, he told Times Radio ministers would 'set out how we will pay for future increases in the future'.
The Strategic Defence Review, published on Monday, set out how the Armed Forces must adapt to the battlefields of the future, and warned that they were 'not currently optimised for warfare against a 'peer' military state'.
It called for a £63 billion spending spree that included upgraded nuclear warheads, stealth fighters and a fleet of submarines.
It also said the Army must increase troop numbers, including reserves, to 100,000 to combat the growing threat from countries such as Russia.
Writing for The Telegraph on Monday, the authors of the Strategic Defence Review said the UK had no choice but to take a Nato-first approach in the post-Cold War era.
Lord Robertson, Fiona Hill and Gen Sir Richard Barrons said: 'This period of unprecedented instability demands enhanced collective security with allies, especially Nato, to sustain deterrence that prevents opponents from considering inflicting harm.
'The US plays a different role in European security, but a modernised 'Nato-first' approach is the only effective, affordable option for the UK.'
James Cartlidge, the shadow defence secretary, said Nato's plan 'contrasts with Labour's total failure' to explain how the UK will reach 3 per cent of GDP.
He said: 'As a result, their defence review has completely unravelled. The submarines and ships it promises are nothing but a fantasy fleet based on fantasy funding.'
The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: 'I'm not going to get into the discussions that are ongoing, in the usual way, ahead of (the) Nato (summit).
'The UK is already the third-highest spender in Nato in cash terms behind the United States and Germany, we are one of 22 allies of the 32 in Nato that already exceed the 2 per cent of GDP Nato target.
'But it isn't just about cash, it's about contributions to capability that each Nato ally brings.
'Whether it is our nuclear capability, whether it's our world-class carriers with fifth-generation combat aircraft, our Armed Forces who are some of the most advanced in the world, the UK has been a leading contributor to Nato and will remain one.'
The target, described as The Hague Investment Commitment, is Nato's first since 2014, when allies agreed to a goal of 2 per cent of GDP at a meeting in Wales.
Britain has been one of the only countries to consistently hit the original spending goal since that agreement.
The new 3.5 per cent target on hard defence spending will be needed to hit Nato's long-term capability targets, which aim to protect the alliance from a possible attack by Russia.
The additional 1.5 per cent will be sent on defence-related infrastructure, such as railway tracks, road bridges and cyber security.
A source said Spain was looking to include money used to combat climate change as a way of reaching the overall target.
While discussions are still live, there is consensus over the 5 per cent figure, which is being used to placate Donald Trump in his complaints over Europe's inability to defend itself without American support.
Further discussions will be needed on the exact trajectory and timeframes in which the target will be hit. One possibility is a guaranteed annual increase in defence spending by every alliance member until the overall goal is achieved.