Jane Bunn weather: Is an ANZAC Day rain Break heading for Australia's southeast?
Many farms and gardens across southeastern Australia have had an incredibly dry start to the year, building on dry conditions that returned in 2024.
There are some parts near the east coast that have done very well so far, and the majority of Queensland has seen well above average rain - some by more than three times the average.
In contrast, there are parts of the southeast, particularly around Adelaide and western Victoria / NSW that have seen less than 20 per cent of their average rain. Adelaide's had just 23mm so far this year, while Brisbane has recorded a whopping 945mm!
It was the dry part of the year for Adelaide, and the wet season in Brisbane, but it's this time of year - around Anzac Day - that southern Australia usually experience a thing known as The Break.
That's when the dry days of summer come to an end, and regular rainfall starts arriving.
Much of the southwest has had a great start to the growing season - some places in the wheatbelt seeing a year's worth of rain already - and there was a weather system over Easter that delivered for parts of the southeast, but not all.
The next rain system is now brewing.
Could this be The Break we need?
Projections show that the dry parts of South Australia aren't likely to do well out of this one - another rain system that doesn't deliver.
It's a very different story for much of NSW, Victoria and northern Tasmania - a widespread 10 to 20 mm is likely here - and there may be some big falls for central Victoria and parts of inland southern NSW in the range of 20 to 40 mm.
This will be another system that increases it's rainfall when it reaches the warm waters of the Tasman Sea, with the NSW east coast set for another soaking over the weekend into early next week.
Sydney has already recorded 484mm so far this year, and there may be another 50+mm on the horizon.
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West Australian
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- West Australian
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West Australian
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The Advertiser
08-05-2025
- The Advertiser
The extreme weather event that changed Port Stephens forever
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"We would very much want the state government to authorise it (the natural entrance) as an official navigation channel," group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. "That would allow the false channel to close over." The estuary's three lake systems originally entered the ocean at different points up to about 1000 years ago. Over time, the three entrances were blocked through sand movement, and the narrow stream (the Myall River) that exists today was formed. "The Myall River has a very narrow entrance. That means that the water coming down from the mountains actually flows backwards into the lakes, which means we don't flood down here," Mr Grainger said. "The top lake is fresh, the middle lake is brackish, and the bottom lake is tidal. But it's all mixed with water coming down. That means the water coming out of the river is very brackish. Because the eastern entrance is closed, it gets recycled in the lakes and we lose the salt content, which, in turn, affects marine life." The effects of one of the most extreme weather events recorded in the Hunter almost a century ago are still being felt. Maps dating back to 1795 show a significant land mass jutting from the mouth of the Myall River into Port Stephens. Known as Myall Point, the landmark, which functioned as a natural breakwall, protected the river mouth from sand inundation. It also supported a small community and a lighthouse. But the point was literally wiped off the map by an east coast low that struck during Easter 1927. The extreme weather event, described as a category 5 cyclone, brought 500 millimetres of rain from April 15 to April 24. It is thought that a combination of extreme flooding and hydraulic pressure destabilised the point. The only record of the site is a reference to lot number DP1056904, which is still registered as a valid holding with the NSW Office of Lands. Over the past century, the buildup of sand near the river entrance has been a scourge for mariners and locals alike. "I can remember visiting here in the 60s and 70s when there was a deep water channel still there but it was gradually starting to close over," Myall River Action Group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. The Newcastle Herald reported on Tuesday that a dredging project is removing thousands of tonnes of sand deposited between the river mouth and the Singing Bridge. While the much-needed project will help revitalise the estuary, locals believe the reconstruction of Myall Point would help protect the channel and its environment in the long term. Such a project, which would essentially involve building a kilometre-long breakwall, would not come cheap. But the Myall River Action Group argues that it would deliver a higher return through increased tourism and maritime activity. It will also mean the river would not need to be dredged as often. It would also mean the man-made navigational channel to the west would no longer be required to be maintained. "We would very much want the state government to authorise it (the natural entrance) as an official navigation channel," group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. "That would allow the false channel to close over." The estuary's three lake systems originally entered the ocean at different points up to about 1000 years ago. Over time, the three entrances were blocked through sand movement, and the narrow stream (the Myall River) that exists today was formed. "The Myall River has a very narrow entrance. That means that the water coming down from the mountains actually flows backwards into the lakes, which means we don't flood down here," Mr Grainger said. "The top lake is fresh, the middle lake is brackish, and the bottom lake is tidal. But it's all mixed with water coming down. That means the water coming out of the river is very brackish. Because the eastern entrance is closed, it gets recycled in the lakes and we lose the salt content, which, in turn, affects marine life." The effects of one of the most extreme weather events recorded in the Hunter almost a century ago are still being felt. Maps dating back to 1795 show a significant land mass jutting from the mouth of the Myall River into Port Stephens. Known as Myall Point, the landmark, which functioned as a natural breakwall, protected the river mouth from sand inundation. It also supported a small community and a lighthouse. But the point was literally wiped off the map by an east coast low that struck during Easter 1927. The extreme weather event, described as a category 5 cyclone, brought 500 millimetres of rain from April 15 to April 24. It is thought that a combination of extreme flooding and hydraulic pressure destabilised the point. The only record of the site is a reference to lot number DP1056904, which is still registered as a valid holding with the NSW Office of Lands. Over the past century, the buildup of sand near the river entrance has been a scourge for mariners and locals alike. "I can remember visiting here in the 60s and 70s when there was a deep water channel still there but it was gradually starting to close over," Myall River Action Group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. The Newcastle Herald reported on Tuesday that a dredging project is removing thousands of tonnes of sand deposited between the river mouth and the Singing Bridge. While the much-needed project will help revitalise the estuary, locals believe the reconstruction of Myall Point would help protect the channel and its environment in the long term. Such a project, which would essentially involve building a kilometre-long breakwall, would not come cheap. But the Myall River Action Group argues that it would deliver a higher return through increased tourism and maritime activity. It will also mean the river would not need to be dredged as often. It would also mean the man-made navigational channel to the west would no longer be required to be maintained. "We would very much want the state government to authorise it (the natural entrance) as an official navigation channel," group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. "That would allow the false channel to close over." The estuary's three lake systems originally entered the ocean at different points up to about 1000 years ago. Over time, the three entrances were blocked through sand movement, and the narrow stream (the Myall River) that exists today was formed. "The Myall River has a very narrow entrance. That means that the water coming down from the mountains actually flows backwards into the lakes, which means we don't flood down here," Mr Grainger said. "The top lake is fresh, the middle lake is brackish, and the bottom lake is tidal. But it's all mixed with water coming down. That means the water coming out of the river is very brackish. Because the eastern entrance is closed, it gets recycled in the lakes and we lose the salt content, which, in turn, affects marine life." The effects of one of the most extreme weather events recorded in the Hunter almost a century ago are still being felt. Maps dating back to 1795 show a significant land mass jutting from the mouth of the Myall River into Port Stephens. Known as Myall Point, the landmark, which functioned as a natural breakwall, protected the river mouth from sand inundation. It also supported a small community and a lighthouse. But the point was literally wiped off the map by an east coast low that struck during Easter 1927. The extreme weather event, described as a category 5 cyclone, brought 500 millimetres of rain from April 15 to April 24. It is thought that a combination of extreme flooding and hydraulic pressure destabilised the point. The only record of the site is a reference to lot number DP1056904, which is still registered as a valid holding with the NSW Office of Lands. Over the past century, the buildup of sand near the river entrance has been a scourge for mariners and locals alike. "I can remember visiting here in the 60s and 70s when there was a deep water channel still there but it was gradually starting to close over," Myall River Action Group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. The Newcastle Herald reported on Tuesday that a dredging project is removing thousands of tonnes of sand deposited between the river mouth and the Singing Bridge. While the much-needed project will help revitalise the estuary, locals believe the reconstruction of Myall Point would help protect the channel and its environment in the long term. Such a project, which would essentially involve building a kilometre-long breakwall, would not come cheap. But the Myall River Action Group argues that it would deliver a higher return through increased tourism and maritime activity. It will also mean the river would not need to be dredged as often. It would also mean the man-made navigational channel to the west would no longer be required to be maintained. "We would very much want the state government to authorise it (the natural entrance) as an official navigation channel," group spokesman Gordon Grainger said. "That would allow the false channel to close over." The estuary's three lake systems originally entered the ocean at different points up to about 1000 years ago. Over time, the three entrances were blocked through sand movement, and the narrow stream (the Myall River) that exists today was formed. "The Myall River has a very narrow entrance. That means that the water coming down from the mountains actually flows backwards into the lakes, which means we don't flood down here," Mr Grainger said. "The top lake is fresh, the middle lake is brackish, and the bottom lake is tidal. But it's all mixed with water coming down. That means the water coming out of the river is very brackish. Because the eastern entrance is closed, it gets recycled in the lakes and we lose the salt content, which, in turn, affects marine life."
