Locked into No. 10, Heat looks ahead at its play-in tournament challenge: ‘Anything can happen'
This season hasn't gone as planned for the Miami Heat. From the Jimmy Butler trade to a long 10-game skid to a bunch of blown leads, it has been a season full of adversity for the Heat.
Now even with a chance to still advance to the playoffs, the Heat faces even more adversity in the form of the toughest path to the playoffs among teams still in contention.
Despite Friday night's 153-104 blowout win over the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on Friday night, the Heat found itself locked into 10th place in the Eastern Conference because of victories by the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls. As the East's 10th-place team, the Heat will need to win two consecutive road play-in games just to qualify for the playoffs as the conference's No. 8 seed and clinch a first-round matchup against the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.
'It's the second season and this is something that I want everybody in the locker room, which they do have this, I want everybody to be appreciative of this opportunity,' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after the team set a new franchise record for the most points scored in a single game and earned the second-most lopsided victory in team history in Friday's 49-point win in New Orleans. 'It could be something where you're not even in the play-in or have an opportunity for this. We have an opportunity to win and move on to the next thing. I mean, this is exciting. This is great competition.'
That competition will begin when the Heat travels to take on the Chicago Bulls at United Center on Wednesday in an elimination play-in tournament game. The Heat lost all three regular-season matchups against the Bulls this season.
'We're 0-3 against them in this season,' Heat guard Tyler Herro said ahead of Sunday's regular-season finale against the Washington Wizards at Kaseya Center (1 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Sun). 'It's going to obviously be a big challenge for us going on the road and winning two games, but nothing we haven't done before and we're ready for the challenge.'
With the East's play-in seeding locked at No. 7 Orlando Magic, No. 8 Hawks, No. 9 Bulls and No. 10 Heat, here's the challenging path to the playoffs that Miami faces ...
The East's play-in game between the No. 7 Magic and No. 8 Hawks will be played on Tuesday in Orlando at a time still to be determined and aired on TNT. The winner of this matchup earns the conference's seventh playoff seed and will face the second-seeded Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs.
The East's play-in game between the No. 9 Bulls and No. 10 Heat will be played on Wednesday in Chicago at a time still to be determined and aired on ESPN. The loser of this matchup is eliminated from playoff contention.
Then the East's play-in game between the loser of the Magic-Hawks matchup and the winner of the Bulls-Heat game will be played on Friday in either Orlando or Atlanta and aired on TNT. The winner of this matchup earns the conference's eighth playoff seed and will take on the top-seeded Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.
'Win or go home. It's like the NCAA Tournament. Anything can happen,' Heat center Bam Adebayo said. 'You've seen teams in the tournament that got swept by a team in the regular season and you get that one shining moment and it's a turnaround.'
With the Heat already locked into 10th place in the East and the Wizards already clinching one of the worst three records in the NBA for the best chance at the top pick in this year's draft, Sunday's regular-season finale between the Heat and Wizards is relatively meaningless for both teams.
The expectation is the Heat will likely sit some of its regulars and use the final game of the regular season to give developmental players like Josh Christopher, Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens (if healthy) an opportunity to play extended minutes.
But there is at least one thing to monitor Sunday, as the Heat's draft position could be affected by the result of its regular-season finale.
The Heat, which only keeps its first-round pick this year if it misses the playoffs, enters Sunday with the NBA's 11th-worst record that comes with a 2 percent chance of landing the top pick and a 9.4 percent chance of snagging a top-four pick during next month's NBA Draft Lottery.
But the Heat could still finish anywhere between the 10th and 12th lottery seed depending on Sunday's results. The Phoenix Suns (whose first-round pick will go to the Houston Rockets) hold the league's 10th-worst record at 36-45 and the Bulls own the 12th-worst record at 38-43, as the Heat is able to finish tied with either of those teams based on the outcome of Sunday's games.
The 10th lottery seed comes with a 13.9 percent chance of getting a top-four pick and a 3 percent chance of landing the top pick during the draft lottery. The 12th lottery seed gives that team a 7.1 percent chance of jumping into the top-four picks and a 1.5 percent chance of being awarded the No. 1 pick.
What happens if multiple lottery teams finish with the same record? Their lottery ball combinations are merged and then divided equally. For example, if two teams are tied, they would each get half of the combined combinations. A random drawing is then held to break the tie and determine the draft order if none of the involved teams jump into the top-four selections during the lottery.
The Golden State Warriors are also worth monitoring, since the Heat acquired the Warriors' pick in the Butler trade. Miami will get Golden State's first-round selection this year as long as it falls between No. 11 and No. 30.
The only chance of the Warriors keeping their first-round pick this year would be if they end up in the play-in tournament, lose in the play-in and then overcome long odds to get a top-four pick during the lottery. The Warriors enter Sunday in sixth place in the Western Conference and will only fall to seventh place and play-in tournament territory if they lose at home to the Los Angeles Clippers in their regular-season finale while the Denver Nuggets defeat the Houston Rockets and the Minnesota Timberwolves also beat the Utah Jazz.
The Warriors enter the final day of the regular season tied with the Timberwolves for the league's 20th-worst record. When teams finish with the same regular-season record but aren't in the lottery, their draft order is determined by a random drawing.
'You have to perform collectively at a high level,' Spoelstra said of the Heat's play-in reality of having to win two straight road play-in games just to make the playoffs as the East's No. 8 seed. 'Chicago is playing at a high level, we've playing at a high level. And as competitors, you have to absolutely embrace it, enjoy it and we do. We feel grateful for the opportunity to play for an opportunity to get into the dance.'
But to make the playoffs this season, the Heat will need to do something no other team has done. No 10th-place team in either conference has ever advanced past the play-in tournament since this current play-in format was first instituted for the 2020-21 season.
'We've seen a season turn around through the ups and downs,' Adebayo said, with the Heat set to take part in the play-in tournament for the third straight season. 'I always keep that in the back of my mind. Anything can happen.'
Will anything happen, though?
'Obviously, we got to play those games,' Adebayo answered. 'So we'll figure it out when we get there.'
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