Monsoon arrives early in Kerala, earliest onset since 2009: IMD
The southwest monsoon has made an early entrance into the Indian subcontinent this year, arriving over Kerala on Saturday — eight days ahead of its typical June 1 onset, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
This marks the earliest onset since 2009, when the monsoon reached the state on May 23. Over the past week, Kerala has witnessed a noticeable uptick in rainfall.
The IMD declares the monsoon's arrival over Kerala based on three primary indicators: rainfall of at least 2.5 mm recorded at a minimum of 14 meteorological stations for two consecutive days, deep westerly winds extending up to 600 hectopascals, and a decline in Outgoing Longwave Radiation values below 200 watts per square meter.
This early onset signals the beginning of the crucial four-month-long rainy season, vital to agriculture, water resources, and economic stability across the country.
The Met department has issued warnings of extremely heavy rainfall — exceeding 205 mm in 24 hours — through Monday in Kerala and Mahe, with similar weather conditions forecast for coastal Karnataka.
Adding to the turbulent weather, a well-marked low-pressure area off the Konkan-Goa coast intensified into a depression on Saturday and was expected to make landfall near Raigad in Maharashtra by evening. Squally winds and strong monsoonal currents were already prevailing across the Arabian Sea.
This year, the IMD has forecast rainfall to be 'above normal,' estimating the total to be at 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 880 mm. Two major oceanic influences —the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole — are currently in a neutral phase, a condition expected to support monsoonal activity.
The monsoon is projected to advance into the remaining parts of south peninsular and northeast India, along with additional areas of east and central India, between May 29 and June 4.
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