Cam Ward to Aaron Rodgers: What Could Go Right, Wrong for Every AFC QB in 2025

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5 hours ago

In the NFL, it's good to prepare for anything. No one saw the Kansas City Chiefs' season coming last year, from Patrick Mahomes' poor performances to his astonishingly consistent late-game theatrics. Few saw C.J. Stroud's struggles coming. At this time last year, few would've anticipated Cam Ward going first overall in the draft. Or the Chargers and Justin Herbert making the playoffs.
These surprises are what make the league great. So … let's try to spoil a few. No, I promise this will be fun. I've gone through every AFC team (and, on Thursday, every NFC team) and predicted what could go right for each quarterback — and what could go wrong.
Let's dive in. Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
What could go right: Jackson's pass-catchers disappoint him on 10% fewer plays.
Of course, the Mark Andrews drop in the divisional-round game against the Bills lives in everyone's memory. But while that was an outlier for the Pro Bowl tight end, drops were a problem for Baltimore's offense as a whole, which tended to leave catches and yards on the field. It sounds crazy, but even with Jackson's career-best season (4,172 passing yards, 41 passing TDs), there was more room for production. Perhaps that's why DeAndre Hopkins is joining the depth chart as WR3. Those reliable hands might come in … handy.
What could go wrong: Neither Isaiah Likely nor Zay Flowers take a step forward.
There isn't a truly dominant player in the passing game for Baltimore. The Ravens operate without an alpha. But it would be nice to see someone take on that role. Both Flowers and Likely have the talent and elite traits to pull it off. They have both progressed in unique ways, but neither player strikes fear into a defensive coordinator. Not yet. Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
What could go right: Keon Coleman (or Khalil Shakir) turns into a true WR1.
Since the departure of Stefon Diggs, Buffalo's offense has reconfigured itself in creative ways. Running back James Cook has been a true featured back. Shakir has a Julian Edelman-esque way about him. But Allen has had to do an inordinate amount of work to make things happen, which was how he won MVP last season despite unimpressive passing numbers. As a rookie last season, Coleman didn't appear particularly close to asserting himself as a top-flight wideout. It was actually Shakir who did that, even from the slot. But Coleman has the traits while Shakir doesn't. For Allen to throw for more than 4,000 yards again, like he did four straight years with Diggs around, a Bills pass-catcher needs to establish himself as a centerpiece of the offensive game plan.
What could go wrong: The offensive line isn't quite as dominant.
The offense ran as much around its big guys as it did around Allen. Buffalo's MVP QB made plenty of explosive plays (and made up for his lack of explosive playmakers), but it was the offensive linemen clearing a path for the ground game that really made this offense hum. That's probably why Cook's contract standoff isn't going well. The Bills think they can replicate their success with a different back. But if the big guys fail to win with the same authority in the trenches, then this offense loses what it does best. And I'm not sure the Bills have enough firepower in the passing game to make up for it.
What could go right: The Bengals have a half-decent defense.
This will be the only quarterback whose best-case scenario has nothing to do with him. Because every other item on this list is about a player (or group of players) actually on the field at the same time as the QB. Not Cincinnati. That should give you a sense of how bad it was for Burrow to try to contend with the defense last year. Burrow threw for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns and nine interceptions — and missed the playoffs. And because he missed the playoffs, he missed out on an MVP award that he deserved to win.
What could go wrong: Burrow can't get the ball out in time.
In 2024, Burrow averaged just 2.65 seconds to throw the football. That's a sign of a fast processor. And good receivers. But even fast processors can be QBs under duress. Aaron Rodgers (2.65) and Gardner Minshew (2.63) had quick triggers, too. Neither had a good season. The beauty of Burrow's big plays was that they came with an astonishingly low mistake rate. He had the seventh lowest turnover-worthy play percentage (1.9). If the Bengals can't recreate that in 2025 with an in-sync receiving corps and offensive line, then Burrow's back breaks from carrying his team. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders
What could go right: The fifth-round rookie starts 17 games.
If Sanders starts every game, it'll mean he won the job despite everything that happened before and during the draft. It may not mean he doesn't get benched in some games, but it does mean that the team stays committed to him throughout the year. At this point, it would be a positive step forward if Sanders spent the season earning the Browns' trust. Because next year, they could arm him to the teeth.
What could go wrong: Five different QBs start.
If Sanders gets a chance to win over the organization and fails, the Browns could turn to Dillon Gabriel (or Joe Flacco, or Kenny Pickett or even Deshaun Watson). And by this time next year, they'll have a new QB1. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix
What could go right: Nix plays like a poor man's Drew Brees.
Nix didn't exactly burst onto the scene without issues. His first two games were a bit of a disaster. But while people wrote him off, he fixed … almost everything. And he finished a rookie regular-season that was as impressive as what C.J. Stroud did in 2023. So, in theory, Nix could continue to assert himself as the next Brees. That was why Sean Payton drafted him.
What could go wrong: Nix has a sophomore slump like C.J. Stroud.
Since I mentioned Stroud's rookie season, let's mention what happened next. It wasn't pretty for Stroud in 2024. And it's possible that Nix will experience a similar sophomore slump. For pocket passers, everything seems to get more difficult after defenses have a full season of game tape. So Nix will have to contend with even faster opponents this year. Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud
What could go right: The left side of the offensive line comes together.
There's a reason why the Texans added Cam Robinson and Laken Tomlinson this offseason. Houston's offensive line was a mess last year, and that was the biggest reason why Stroud regressed. These additions need to keep Stroud clean.
What could go wrong: The OL flops and the rookie WRs can't elevate the passing game.
Not only could the offensive line struggle, but the receivers might have issues, too. And it could all come crashing down if the newcomers can't change things. The Texans can't build their entire offense around Joe Mixon and Nico Collins. That duo is obviously a great start, but the team invested in rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel and veteran Christian Kirk to help out Stroud. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson
What could go right: Richardson completes 65% of his passes.
Richardson finished last season with a completion percentage of 59.5. It wasn't good enough, especially not at 6.9 yards per attempt. So if he's going to retain the starting job, he's going to need to distribute the football to highly talented pass-catchers Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. This offense just needs a competent guy at the helm.
What could go wrong: Daniel Jones completes 65% of his passes.
It's not exactly intuitive, but here's why this would be most unfortunate. It would mean that the Richardson experiment failed and the Colts set back their organization. But if Jones plays well, it could cloud the team's decision-making on who to invest in for the future. Indy could talk itself into extending Jones to a long-term deal similar to Baker Mayfield's (three years, $100 million). That would be a mistake. And it would also set back the organization — just like the Giants' long-term deal with Jones did. If Jones plays well, the Colts might pursue the mirage. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence
What could go right: Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter combine for a young WR corps beyond comparison.
One interesting thing about Bengals Pro Bowl receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is that they're fairly different in body type and skill set. It's almost like Miami's Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. With Thomas and Hunter, there are a lot of similarities. But that's mostly just an indication of their quality as wideouts. Hunter, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, will play both ways, but I suspect his primary role will be on offense. Lawrence's career has begun to flag. But if Hunter is as good as he seems, these two receivers should be enough to lift Lawrence out of his funk.
What could go wrong: Expectations (and Lawrence's poor play) continue to drag down the QB.
It's not just that we all expect Thomas and Hunter to be electric. It's that we expected Lawrence to be electric. Given that he was a generational college prospect, I thought he'd have a playoff win by now — or, at least, more than one playoff appearance. Lawrence has been mediocre (and sometimes worse than that) over the past few years. But the expectations only make things worse. Now, with Thomas looking like one of the NFL's best young receivers and Hunter having the potential to be the league's best WR2, Lawrence will yet again have to stare down big expectations. Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
What could go right: Mahomes goes back to being 2020 Mahomes.
Back in 2020, the Kansas City offense revolved around Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Now, Hill is gone. And that 2020 version of Kelce is gone, too. Entering his age-36 season, the 10-time Pro Bowl tight end is slowing down. This year, the Chiefs are going to build their offense around young receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. And you'll see some similarities between Kelce and Rice — and Worthy and Hill. That'll give Kelce a more opportunistic role. Rookie WR Jalen Royals can take over the spot Mecole Hardman once occupied. And this offense can attack teams at all three levels with consistency.
What could go wrong: Mahomes looks like 2024 Mahomes (but with fewer wins).
The left tackle was Mahomes' Achilles' heal last season. But there were plenty of other issues on this depth chart. We saw injuries and attrition eat into the offense. And after another Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs have played a lot of football over the past five years. Rice is coming back from injury, and Kelce is breaking down. Worthy and Royals are still young. Hollywood Brown can't stay healthy. The Chiefs threw everything they could at the left tackle problem: first-round pick Josh Simmons and free-agent acquisition Jaylon Moore. But it's possible this offense is still a year away from finding itself again. Las Vegas Raiders: Geno Smith
What could go right: Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty goes off for 3,000 yards.
I'm mostly kidding. But not entirely. The Raiders don't have much in the way of experienced skill players. Jakobi Meyers is among the most underappreciated talents in the NFL. Brock Bowers is an undeniable talent. But that's a pretty small group of playmakers. Jeanty might have to hold up the entire offense. And that would actually be a good thing for Smith, who will need all the help he can get.
What could go wrong: Smith was just a product of his receivers in Seattle.
During his 11-year career, Smith was only good as a Seahawk, with a lot of help from a tremendously talented receiver group. In Las Vegas, Smith might revert to a lesser version. This offense will have a hard time attacking the deep part of the field and, in turn, could have difficulty with intermediate passing. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
What could go right: Jim Harbaugh could trust Herbert a whole lot more.
Herbert didn't show his full capabilities in 2024, and his counting stats show that. He threw for 3,870 yards, 23 passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Herbert hasn't exactly lost what makes him special, but he hasn't had a special regular season in quite some time. And he's never had a special postseason. (Just look at his four interceptions against the Texans last postseason.) There's more to Hebert than last year would have us believe. I hope Harbaugh taps into that potential.
What could go wrong: We'll start thinking about Herbert's similarities to Philip Rivers.
There's no denying Herbert's talent. There's no legitimate possibility that Herbert is going anywhere. But remember Rivers? We've seen a legit talent with Hall of Fame potential fizzle in the Chargers organization. I wouldn't want that to happen to Herbert.
RELATED: How Jim Harbaugh plans to reach goal of getting Justin Herbert to Hall of Fame Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
What could go right: Tua is back in the Pro Bowl.
Given the current complexion of their secondary, the Dolphins will need to score a lot of points in 2025. And while Tyreek Hill is causing his fair share of issues, he may well spend one more year in Miami. If it's a good year and the Dolphins find the torrid offense from 2023 (which feels like forever ago), Tua could reinsert himself into the conversation as one of the best pocket passers in the NFL — and maybe save coach Mike McDaniel's job.
What could go wrong: Tua is on another team by draft day.
If Hill has a tough season and/or forces a trade or if Tagovailoa suffers another concussion and/or if McDaniel can't hold onto his job, then we might see the Dolphins move on from Tua. He's a really solid QB when he's healthy. But there are a lot of looming questions for the Dolphins, whose roster seems to be deteriorating. New England Patriots: Drake Maye
What could go right: In Year 2, Maye gets some support.
It won't take much for Maye to have a better situation than last year, when the QB stood behind the NFL's worst offensive line and threw to the worst receiving group. Because of a busy offseason, New England should have at least three new starters on the OL and at least two new starters at wideout, including Stefon Diggs. The Patriots spent a lot of money to get help for Maye. And they invested in the offense in the draft (LT Will Campbell, WR Kyle Williams). It'll be a waste of perfectly good QB talent if things don't get better for the Patriots.
What could go wrong: Maye can't limit his bad decisions.
Maye finished last season with 17 touchdowns (15 passing, 2 rushing), 10 interceptions and nine fumbles (five lost). He also ran headfirst into a defender and suffered a concussion that forced him to miss a game and a half. There were moments of brilliance, but there were some troubling spots, too. Sometimes we gloss over those issues when there's a lack of supporting cast. But it's possible he might make just as many mistakes even with better people around him.
RELATED: Why Drake Maye's second-year leap is the key to turning Patriots around New York Jets: Justin Fields
What could go right: Justin Fields finds himself.
It's easy to say that Fields' narrative could follow those of Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. They were all high draft picks who fell from grace with their first teams. And now, they have entrenched themselves as legit starters elsewhere. Fields will look to bring his career back to life — but in a different way than those predecessors. Smith, Mayfield and Darnold are pocket passers while Fields has the ability to run. We saw that skill back in 2022, when he put up 1,143 rushing yards and eight touchdowns with the Bears. Jets QB coach Charles London, who worked with Smith in Seattle, and OC Tanner Engstrand need to create an offense designed for Fields' gifts.
What could go wrong: The Jets' carousel gets stuck on a guy they don't want.
Fields is a unique quarterback. Sometimes, unusual talents fail to fit with a certain scheme or coaching staff. And so the Fields experiment might not be a huge success story. So you're probably thinking: Well, the Jets will just draft another QB. They could. But given that Fields needs to reclaim his career and the Jets are tired of losing, they will probably finish in the middle of the league, even if Fields isn't the guy they want him to be. And that'll probably cloud the picture around getting a top QB in the 2026 draft. So then what? They'll have to throw around major assets to move up in the draft or sign someone else in free agency … again. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers
What could go right: Technically a Super Bowl … right?
There are a million reasons to be hesitant about Rodgers. Let's put aside what happened with the Jets (and Packers), the darkness retreats, his age (41) and everything else. There are a few reasons to get excited about Rodgers. Teammates like him. At the end of 2024, Rodgers showed flashes of improvement, perhaps because his Achilles was fully healed. The Steelers have plenty of talent. Coach Mike Tomlin, Rodgers, DK Metcalf, T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Darius Slay and Alex Highsmith could take this team to a championship. Technically.
What could go wrong: History repeats itself.
Rodgers didn't leave the Packers in turmoil, but we can all agree that was a dysfunctional exit. Yes? Yes. And then his tenure with the Jets was brutal from start to finish. Rodgers is a destabilizing force set to meet his match in Tomlin, one of the NFL's steadiest leaders. But chaos wins every time. Check out Murphy's Law. It's possible to imagine Rodgers overwhelming Tomlin. And maybe everything falls apart in Pittsburgh, leading to a total cleaning of house. That's the wild thing about Rodgers. There might be no player with greater risk. And at his age, the rewards are less obvious. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward
What could go right: Cam Ward proves he's their guy.
It's rare for a guy to declare himself the solution to an organization's problem in Year 1. But it happens. And the Titans would be lucky to see that materialize with Ward in 2025. Tennessee has surrounded him with veterans on offense. And while the Titans might not make the playoffs, they should be able to avoid the pitfalls we've seen interfere with the development of a No. 1 overall pick. (See: Bears and Caleb Williams)
RELATED: No. 1 pick Cam Ward shows Titans he's a 'gunslinger' who won't back down
What could go wrong: Cam Ward takes a step back.
This season is all about moving Ward forward into bigger and better performances. The worst thing that can happen is that he isn't ready, that his coaches fail to prepare him properly and/or that his teammates fail to lift him up.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna .
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