Could Kentucky be due for more earthquakes? Expert seismologist weighs in
KENTUCKY (FOX 56) — Due to the recent uptick in observed seismic activity, some Kentuckians wonder if more could be coming soon.
Recently, United States Geological Survey (USGS) data showed a 2.8 magnitude earthquake hit central Kentucky around 3:41 a.m. on Sunday, May 11, originating between Nicholasville and Danville. This tremor comes on the heels of a 4.1 magnitude earthquake that USGS officials pinpointed near the Tennessee-North Carolina border.
According to an interactive earthquake map and database, Kentucky has noticed a roughly 6% increase in seismic activity over the last 30 days.
FOX 56 spoke with University of Kentucky seismologist Seth Carpenter regarding seismic activity in the Bluegrass.
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Carpenter said the most recent earthquakes had no connection with the New Madrid seismic zone, despite the tendency of earthquakes to concentrate along the fault line.
Earthquakes are often caused by a sudden slip along a fault, according to the USGS. Carpenter said these slips happen when enough stress builds up to overpower the fault's strength.
Regarding the earthquake on Sunday in Garrard County, Carpenter said it was a rare event, but the magnitude is consistent with past earthquakes recorded there.
Read more of the latest Kentucky news
The cause of the recent earthquakes is not definitively known, according to Carpenter, since they came from depths of roughly 25-30 kilometers inside the Earth's crust.
He noted that it was difficult to connect the activity at the fault line with future seismic activity.
'It's difficult to say conclusively whether the recent earthquakes foretell of future earthquakes. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely they suggest any increase in likelihood of future earthquakes since none of them has been determined to be part of a sequence,' Carpenter said.
He encouraged anyone concerned about Kentucky earthquakes to download a booklet on earthquake preparedness.
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List: 5 Big Lots stores in Kentucky reopening this week
To monitor the UK earthquake network data, click here.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
California is overdue for a devastating earthquake. Here are some tips if it hits
It's the unavoidable series of questions Christine Goulet gets every time she's asked what she does for a living. "When is the next big earthquake coming? Do you know where? When should we get ready?" Goulet, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Los Angeles, told USA TODAY. "It's almost without fail once they know I study earthquakes. If I received a dollar every time I'm asked, I'd be rich." Goulet has answers, but she can't predict the future. The ominous truth: The Big One could happen any time, and there's more than one possible "Big One." "It's gonna happen. An earthquake could be in a matter of minutes, the next hour, tomorrow, or in a week from now, we can't predict that precisely at this time. We don't know," Goulet said. "But the point in general is we want and need to prepare for them." California quakes': Tsunami warnings canceled after powerful earthquake in Northern California The most authoritative research on the risk to California was conducted in 2015, but little has changed in the past decade. The state will almost certainly face a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next three decades, the USGS concludes. Some of the most at-risk locations are San Francisco and Los Angeles. California's continuous temblor risk coincides with a huge earthquake brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. With nearly four dozen faults in the region stretching from Napa to Monterey, the San Francisco Bay Area has a 72% chance of a major quake registering 6.7 magnitude or higher by 2043, USGS researchers previously estimated. The findings also indicate that the Bay Area has a 51% chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 and a 20% chance of measuring a magnitude of 7.5 or higher within that time frame. "The earthquake threat is very real," said Richard Allen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the director of the Berkeley Seismology Lab. "It is a real challenge as we have to take that long-term view, but also not to live our lives in fear." In December, thousands in the Bay Area and across Northern California were worried after a magnitude 7 earthquake struck along a sparsely populated northern coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning across a swath of the West Coast stretching from southern Oregon to San Francisco. Traci Grant, 53, a public relations specialist who felt the quake in San Francisco, told USA TODAY at the time she felt her retrofitted apartment move in slow motion. "It just kept going and going," Grant said. "It was scary and a bit exciting at the same time. It was more of a roll than just shake, shake, shake." California quakes: Don't wait for the big one. This is what to do before, during and after an earthquake Less than two hours after the initial quake, some areas experienced 13 different aftershocks, ranging from 5.1 to 3.1, the USGS reported. Two hours after that, at least 39 aftershocks of at least a 2.5 magnitude occured in the region, authorities said. No earthquake-related injuries or major damages were reported. Goulet said if the quake had been directly on land, "the impact would've been more devastating." Goulet said December's quake magnitude conjured up the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906. It was a nearly minute-long 7.9 magnitude quake followed by a fire that burned for three days, destroying thousands of buildings. The San Francisco quake killed an estimated 3,000 people and destroyed roughly 80% of the city. It is known as one of the deadliest in U.S. history. Allen also noted the 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake that struck the heart of the Bay Area and killed 30 people. With all the Bay Area faults, Allen said his research shows there's a "two-in-three chance" the Big One could be soon. "We're overdue for a recurrence," Allen said. The last major earthquake in the Bay Area occurred more than a decade ago, when an earthquake rattled Napa Valley in 2014. The 6.0 magnitude quake in Wine Country killed one person and injured 300 people. The incident caused more than $1 billion in damage across Napa and neighboring cities, including Vallejo, California, which took years to rebuild. Then there was the Loma Prieta earthquake that rocked the San Francisco Bay Area in 1989, killing 63 people and injuring nearly 3,800 others. The earthquake disrupted the World Series and damaged the Bay Bridge, Oakland's Cypress Freeway, and swaths of San Francisco. It caused up to $10 billion in damage. "There's this perception that large quakes are frequent, but actually, they are quite rare," Goulet said. "We just don't know when they will happen." The Los Angeles area also stands a chance of getting a major earthquake, as there's a 60% chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake within the next 30 years, the USGS said. Additionally, there is also a 46% probability that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will hit L.A. and a 31% chance a 7.5 magnitude quake will strike during that same period. Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, said Southern California has just as high an earthquake risk compared to its Northern California counterparts. "They face a similar threat, if not higher," Allen said. Goulet added that with Los Angeles and the surrounding areas being so populous (nearly 18.6 million residents according to California Finance Department statistics), there is a high probability for major destruction. She cites the disastrous 6.7 earthquake in Northridge, California, in 1994, which killed 60 people and injured more than 7,000. The devastation also left thousands of buildings and structures collapsed or damaged across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Thousands of residents became homeless as the aftermath caused between $13 billion to $20 billion in damages. "The closer an earthquake is to a large population, the greater the impact will be," Goulet said. Goulet also points to a sequence of earthquakes in 2019 in Ridgecrest, California. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake rattled the city two days after an initial 6.4 magnitude quake. Goulet was among a USGS on-site team researching the first quake when, surprisingly, the second temblor struck. "It was terrifying," Goulet said. "We were there taking measurements and just as we were finishing our work and planning for the next day, the second one occurred about six miles away from us. That was extremely close." Goulet said she remembers reassuring panicked residents that everything would be okay. "That's why we cannot specifically predict earthquakes, when and where they will occur and how big they will be," Goulet added. "But what we can do is collect all of the research that causes earthquakes and the probabilities, which are called probabilistic seismic hazard analysis." There's an App for that: Shake, rattle and scroll: California gets new earthquake alert app Huge earthquakes have long been an existential crisis for millions along the West Coast, as described in a 2022 USA TODAY article. But experts said there are real things people can do to help them prepare for a major disaster. If you experience an earthquake, Sarah Minson, a research geophysicist with the USGS's Earthquake Science Center in Mountain View, California, advises not to run. "If you feel shaking, you should drop, cover and hold on to protect yourself," Minson said. "Don't go anywhere. Don't run outside. A huge number of the injuries that occur in earthquakes are people stepping on broken glass or trying to run during the shaking and falling down." Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, recommends that households create an earthquake plan, including where they will meet and possibly have a bag or suitcase ready for at least a couple of days. Residents will at least want a flashlight and a way to charge their phone. They should also be prepared to have access to electricity or water cut off for days or weeks. Here are a few practical tips: When trying to use your phone, text – don't call. In a disaster, text messages are more reliable and strain cell networks less. To power your phone, you can cheaply buy a combination weather radio, flashlight and hand-crank charger to keep your cell running even without power for days. A cash reserve is good to have, USGS seismologist Lucy Jones previously said. You'll want to be able to buy things, even if your credit card doesn't work for a time. Simple things like securing bookshelves can save lives. Downloading an early warning app can give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event of a big quake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect homeowners. And taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you about other easy steps you can take to prepare. It depends on where you are at. Here's what to do in the following situations, according to Turn face down and cover your head and neck with a pillow if you're in bed. If you are outside, stay outdoors and away from buildings. If you are inside, stay. Avoid doorways and do not run outside. To protect yourself during an earthquake, drop down to your hands and knees and hold onto something sturdy. Cover your head and neck with your arms and crawl underneath a sturdy table or desk to shelter. If that's not available to you, then crawl next to an interior wall to get away from windows. If you are under a table or desk, hold onto it with one hand so that if it moves, you can move with it. More: How to prepare for 'the big one' in Coachella Valley Slow down and pull over as soon as it's safe, according to the California Highway Patrol. Remain in the vehicle with your seat belt fastened, engine off, and parking brake set. Once the shaking stops, check your vehicle for damage and its occupants for injuries. Only begin driving when it is safe to do so. Once you can start moving again, do so slowly and cautiously, avoiding any areas of the road that appear to be damaged or obstructed, and continue to avoid bridges and ramps. California's largest recorded earthquakes since 1800, ranked by magnitude, according to the California Department of Conservation. 7.9: Jan. 9, 1857 in Fort Tejon Two killed; created 220-mile surface scar 7.8: April 18, 1906 in San Francisco Possibly 3,000 killed; 225,000 displaced 7.4: March 26, 1872 in Owens Valley. 27 killed; three aftershocks of magnitude >6 7.4: Nov. 8, 1980 just west of Eureka Injured 6; $2 million in damage 7.3: July 21, 1952 in Kern County 12 killed; included three magnitude 6-plus aftershocks in five days 7.3: June 28, 1992 in Landers. One killed; 400 injured; $9.1 million in damage 7.2: Jan. 22, 1923 in Mendocino. Damaged homes in several towns 7.2: April 25, 1992 in Cape Mendocino. 356 injuries; $48.3 million in damage 7.1: Nov. 4, 1927 southwest of Lompoc. No major injuries, slight damage in two counties 7.1 : Oct. 16, 1999 in Ludlow. Minimal damage due to remote location The most recent significant earthquake in the state — either a magnitude of 6.5 or greater or that caused loss of life or more than $200,000 damage — was the 6.4-magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Pacific Ocean near Ferndale in 2022, according to the state department of conservation, which tracks 'big' earthquakes in California. That earthquake struck in the early morning hours multiple miles west of Ferndale on Dec. 20, 2022, USA TODAY reported. It indirectly caused two deaths and damaged homes and roads in Humboldt County. You can track earthquakes recorded within the last 30 days in America and internationally through USGS' latest earthquakes map, though USGS cautions it should not be considered a complete list of earthquakes. California Connect reporter Paris Barraza contributed to this report. This article originally appeared on Palm Springs Desert Sun: Is California 'overdue' for a major earthquake? Earthquake safety tips
USA Today
2 days ago
- USA Today
The Big One: Is California 'overdue' for a devastating major earthquake?
The Big One: Is California 'overdue' for a devastating major earthquake? A near-certain disaster looms for California, but there are real things people can do to prepare. Here's what to know about the risks. Show Caption Hide Caption California governor signs emergency declaration after quake California's governor says "we're concerned about damage" from magnitude 7 earthquake." It's the unavoidable series of questions Christine Goulet gets every time she's asked what she does for a living. "When is the next big earthquake coming? Do you know where? When should we get ready?" Goulet, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Science Center in Los Angeles, told USA TODAY. "It's almost without fail once they know I study earthquakes. If I received a dollar every time I'm asked, I'd be rich." Goulet has answers, but she can't predict the future. The ominous truth: The Big One could happen any time, and there's more than one possible "Big One." "It's gonna happen. An earthquake could be in a matter of minutes, the next hour, tomorrow, or in a week from now, we can't predict that precisely at this time. We don't know," Goulet said. "But the point in general is we want and need to prepare for them." 'Swaying back and forth': Magnitude 7 earthquake, aftershocks rock California The most authoritative research on the risk to California was conducted in 2015, but little has changed in the past decade. The state will almost certainly face a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next three decades, the USGS concludes. Some of the most at-risk locations are San Francisco and Los Angeles. California's continuous temblor risk coincides with a huge earthquake brewing along the Cascadia Subduction Zone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. San Francisco Bay Area faces high chances of getting a Big One With nearly four dozen faults in the region stretching from Napa to Monterey, the San Francisco Bay Area has a 72% chance of a major quake registering 6.7 magnitude or higher by 2043, USGS researchers previously estimated. The findings also indicate that the Bay Area has a 51% chance of experiencing an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 and a 20% chance of measuring a magnitude of 7.5 or higher within that time frame. "The earthquake threat is very real," said Richard Allen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and the director of the Berkeley Seismology Lab. "It is a real challenge as we have to take that long-term view, but also not to live our lives in fear." In December, thousands in the Bay Area and across Northern California were worried after a magnitude 7 earthquake struck along a sparsely populated northern coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning across a swath of the West Coast stretching from southern Oregon to San Francisco. Traci Grant, 53, a public relations specialist who felt the quake in San Francisco, told USA TODAY at the time she felt her retrofitted apartment move in slow motion. "It just kept going and going," Grant said. "It was scary and a bit exciting at the same time. It was more of a roll than just shake, shake, shake." Fragile environment: A collapsing glacier destroyed a Swiss village. Is climate change to blame? Less than two hours after the initial quake, some areas experienced 13 different aftershocks, ranging from 5.1 to 3.1, the USGS reported. Two hours after that, at least 39 aftershocks of at least a 2.5 magnitude occured in the region, authorities said. No earthquake-related injuries or major damages were reported. Goulet said if the quake had been directly on land, "the impact would've been more devastating." Goulet said December's quake magnitude conjured up the Great San Francisco Earthquake and Fire of 1906. It was a nearly minute-long 7.9 magnitude quake followed by a fire that burned for three days, destroying thousands of buildings. The San Francisco quake killed an estimated 3,000 people and destroyed roughly 80% of the city. It is known as one of the deadliest in U.S. history. Allen also noted the 1868 Hayward Fault earthquake that struck the heart of the Bay Area and killed 30 people. With all the Bay Area faults, Allen said his research shows there's a "two-in-three chance" the Big One could be soon. "We're overdue for a recurrence," Allen said. The last major earthquake in the Bay Area occurred more than a decade ago, when an earthquake rattled Napa Valley in 2014. The 6.0 magnitude quake in Wine Country killed one person and injured 300 people. The incident caused more than $1 billion in damage across Napa and neighboring cities, including Vallejo, California, which took years to rebuild. Then there was the Loma Prieta earthquake that rocked the San Francisco Bay Area in 1989, killing 63 people and injuring nearly 3,800 others. The earthquake disrupted the World Series and damaged the Bay Bridge, Oakland's Cypress Freeway, and swaths of San Francisco. It caused up to $10 billion in damage. "There's this perception that large quakes are frequent, but actually, they are quite rare," Goulet said. "We just don't know when they will happen." Los Angeles is ripe for a Big One as well The Los Angeles area also stands a chance of getting a major earthquake, as there's a 60% chance of a 6.7 magnitude quake within the next 30 years, the USGS said. Additionally, there is also a 46% probability that a 7.0 magnitude earthquake will hit L.A. and a 31% chance a 7.5 magnitude quake will strike during that same period. Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, said Southern California has just as high an earthquake risk compared to its Northern California counterparts. "They face a similar threat, if not higher," Allen said. Goulet added that with Los Angeles and the surrounding areas being so populous (nearly 18.6 million residents according to California Finance Department statistics), there is a high probability for major destruction. She cites the disastrous 6.7 earthquake in Northridge, California, in 1994, which killed 60 people and injured more than 7,000. The devastation also left thousands of buildings and structures collapsed or damaged across Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange and San Bernardino counties. Thousands of residents became homeless as the aftermath caused between $13 billion to $20 billion in damages. "The closer an earthquake is to a large population, the greater the impact will be," Goulet said. Goulet also points to a sequence of earthquakes in 2019 in Ridgecrest, California. A 7.1 magnitude earthquake rattled the city two days after an initial 6.4 magnitude quake. Goulet was among a USGS on-site team researching the first quake when, surprisingly, the second temblor struck. "It was terrifying," Goulet said. "We were there taking measurements and just as we were finishing our work and planning for the next day, the second one occurred about six miles away from us. That was extremely close." Goulet said she remembers reassuring panicked residents that everything would be okay. "That's why we cannot specifically predict earthquakes, when and where they will occur and how big they will be," Goulet added. "But what we can do is collect all of the research that causes earthquakes and the probabilities, which are called probabilistic seismic hazard analysis." Now what?: Federal database that tracked costly weather disasters no longer being updated How to prepare for an earthquake disaster Huge earthquakes have long been an existential crisis for millions along the West Coast, as described in a 2022 USA TODAY article. But experts said there are real things people can do to help them prepare for a major disaster. If you experience an earthquake, Sarah Minson, a research geophysicist with the USGS's Earthquake Science Center in Mountain View, California, advises not to run. "If you feel shaking, you should drop, cover and hold on to protect yourself," Minson said. "Don't go anywhere. Don't run outside. A huge number of the injuries that occur in earthquakes are people stepping on broken glass or trying to run during the shaking and falling down." Allen, the Berkeley seismologist, recommends that households create an earthquake plan, including where they will meet and possibly have a bag or suitcase ready for at least a couple of days. Residents will at least want a flashlight and a way to charge their phone. They should also be prepared to have access to electricity or water cut off for days or weeks. Here are a few practical tips: When trying to use your phone, text – don't call. In a disaster, text messages are more reliable and strain cell networks less. To power your phone, you can cheaply buy a combination weather radio, flashlight and hand-crank charger to keep your cell running even without power for days. A cash reserve is good to have, USGS seismologist Lucy Jones previously said. You'll want to be able to buy things, even if your credit card doesn't work for a time. Simple things like securing bookshelves can save lives. Downloading an early warning app can give you precious moments to protect yourself in the event of a big quake. Buying earthquake insurance can protect homeowners. And taking part in a yearly drill can help remind you about other easy steps you can take to prepare. Contributing: Elizabeth Wiese and Joel Shannon
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
‘Flooding could end southern Appalachia': the scientists on an urgent mission to save lives
The abandoned homes and razed lots along the meandering Troublesome Creek in rural eastern Kentucky is a constant reminder of the 2022 catastrophic floods that killed dozens of people and displaced thousands more. Among the hardest hit was Fisty, a tiny community where eight homes, two shops and nine people including a woman who uses a wheelchair, her husband and two children, were swept away by the rising creek. Some residents dismissed cellphone alerts of potential flooding due to mistrust and warning fatigue, while for others it was already too late to escape. Landslides trapped the survivors and the deceased for several days. In response, geologists from the University of Kentucky secured a grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and raced around collecting perishable data in hope of better understanding the worst flooding event to hit the region in a generation. On a recent morning in Fisty, Harold Baker sat smoking tobacco outside a new prefabricated home while his brother James worked on a car in a makeshift workshop. With no place else to go, the Baker family rebuilt the workshop on the same spot on Troublesome Creek with financial assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema). 'I feel depressed. Everyone else is gone now. The days are long. It feels very lonely when the storms come in,' said Baker, 55, whose four dogs drowned in 2022. With so few people left, the car repair business is way down, the road eerily quiet. Since the flood that took everything, Harold and James patrol the river every time it rains. The vigilance helped avert another catastrophe on Valentine's Day after another so-called generational storm. No one died, but the trauma, like the river, came roaring back. Related: How bad will flooding get by 2100? These AI images show US destinations underwater 'I thought we were going to lose everything again. It was scary,' said Baker. At this spot in July 2022, geologist Ryan Thigpen found flood debris on top of two-storey buildings – 118in (3 metres) off the ground. The water mark on Harold's new trailer shows the February flood hit 23in. Troublesome Creek is a 40-mile narrow tributary of the north fork of the Kentucky River, which, like many waterways across southern Appalachia, does not have a single gauge. Yet these rural mountain hollows are getting slammed over and over by catastrophic flooding – and landslides – as the climate crisis increases rainfall across the region and warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico turbocharge storms. Two years after 45 people died in the 2022 floods, the scale of disaster grew with Hurricane Helene, which killed more than 230 people with almost half the deaths in Appalachia, after days of relentless rain turned calm streams into unstoppable torrents. Another 23 people died during the February 2025 rains, then 24 more in April during a four-day storm that climate scientists found was made significantly more likely and more severe by the warming planet. The extreme weather is making life unbearable and economically unviable for a chronically underserved region where coal was once king, and climate skepticism remains high. Yet little is known about flooding in the Appalachian region. It's why the geologists – also called earth scientists – got involved. 'This is where most people are going to die unless we create reliable warning systems and model future flood risks for mitigation and to help mountain communities plan for long-term resilience. Otherwise, these extreme flooding events could be the end of southern Appalachia,' said Thigpen. Amid accelerating climate breakdown, the urgency of the mission is clear. Yet this type of applied science could be derailed – or at least curtailed – by the unprecedented assault on science, scientists and federal agencies by Donald Trump and his billionaire donors. Danielle Baker, James's wife, had her bags packed a week in advance of the February flood and was glued to local television weather reports, which, like the geologists, rely on meteorological forecasting by the taxpayer-funded National Weather Service (NWS). She was 'scared to death' watching the creek rise so high again. But this time, the entire family, including 11 dogs and several cats, evacuated to the church on the hill, where they waited 26 hours for the water to subside. 'The people in this community are the best you could meet, but it's a ghost town now. I didn't want to rebuild so close to the creek, but we had nowhere else to go. Every time it rains, I can't sleep,' she said, wiping away tears with her shirt. Danielle was unaware of Trump's plans to dismantle Fema and slash funding from the NWS and NSF. 'A lot of people here would not know what to do without Fema's help. We need more information about the weather, better warnings, because the rains are getting worse,' she said. A day after the Guardian's visit in mid-May, an NWS office in eastern Kentucky scrambled to cover the overnight forecast as severe storms moved through the region, triggering multiple tornadoes that eventually killed 28 people. Hundreds of staff have left the NWS in recent months, through a combination of layoffs and buyouts at the behest of Trump mega-donor Elon Musk's so-called 'department of government efficiency' (Doge). It doesn't matter if people don't believe in climate change. It's going to wallop them anyway … This is a new world of extremes and cascading hazards Ryan Thigpen, geologist Yet statewide, two-thirds of Kentuckians voted for Trump last year, with his vote share closer to 80% in rural communities hit hard by extreme weather, where many still blame Barack Obama for coal mine closures. 'It doesn't matter if people don't believe in climate change. It's going to wallop them anyway. We need to think about watersheds differently. This is a new world of extremes and cascading hazards,' said Thigpen, the geologist. *** The rapidly changing climate is rendering the concept of once-in-a-generation floods, which is mostly based on research by hydrologists going back a hundred years or so, increasingly obsolete. Geologists, on the other hand, look back 10,000 years, which could help better understand flooding patterns when the planet was warmer. Thigpen is spearheading this close-knit group of earth scientists from the university's hazards team based in Lexington. On a recent field trip, nerdy jokes and constant teasing helped keep the mood light, but the scientists are clearly affected by the devastation they have witnessed since 2022. The team has so far documented more than 3,000 landslides triggered by that single extreme rain event, and are still counting. This work is part of a broader statewide push to increase climate resiliency and bolster economic growth using Kentucky-specific scientific research. Last year, the initiative got a major boost when the state secured $24m from the NSF for a five-year research project involving eight Kentucky institutions that has created dozens of science jobs and hundreds of new student opportunities. The grant helped pay for high-tech equipment – drones, radars, sensors and computers – the team needs to collect data and build models to improve hazard prediction and create real-time warning systems. After major storms, the team measures water levels and analyzes the sediment deposits left behind to calculate the scale and velocity of the flooding, which in turn helps calibrate the model. The models help better understand the impact of the topography and each community's built and natural environment – important for future mitigation. In these parts, coal was extracted using mountaintop mine removal, which drastically altered the landscape. Mining – and redirected waterways – can affect the height of a flood, according to a recent study by PhD student Meredith Swallom. A paleo-flood project is also under way, and another PhD student, Luciano Cardone, will soon begin digging into a section of the Kentucky riverbank to collect layers of sediment that holds physical clues on the date, size and velocity of ancient floods. Cardone, who found one local missionary's journal describing flooding in 1795, will provide a historical or geological perspective on catastrophic flooding in the region, which the team believe will help better predict future hazards under changing climatic conditions. All this data is analyzed at the new lab located in the Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) department, where super-powerful computers are positioned around a ceiling-to-floor black board, with a groovy lamp and artwork to get the creative mathematical juices flowing. So far the team has developed one working flood risk model for a single section of the Kentucky River. This will serve as a template, as each watershed requires its own model so that the data is manageable, precise and useful. This sort of applied science has the capacity to directly improve the lives of local people, including many Trump voters, as well as benefiting other mountainous flood-prone areas across the US and globally. But a flood warning system can only work if there is reliable meteorological forecasting going forward. The floods have made this a ghost town. I doubt it will survive another one. If you mess with Mother Nature, you lose Thomas Hutton of Kentucky Reports suggest NWS weather balloons, which assess storm risk by measuring wind speed, humidity, temperature and other conditions that satellites may not detect, have been canceled in recent weeks from Nebraska to Florida due to staff shortages. At the busiest time for storm predictions, deadly heatwaves and wildfires, weather service staffing is down by more than 10% and, for the first time in almost half a century, some forecasting offices no longer have 24/7 cover. Trump's team is also threatening to slash $1.52bn from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), the weather service's parent agency, which also monitors climate trends, manages coastal ecosystems and supports international shipping, among other things. 'To build an effective and trusted warning system, we need hyper-local data, including accurate weather forecasts and a more robust network of gauges,' said Summer Brown, a senior lecturer at the University of Kentucky's earth and environmental sciences department. 'The thought of weakening our basic weather data is mind-boggling.' It's impossible not to worry about the cuts, especially as the grand plan is to create a southern Appalachian flood and hazard centre to better understand and prepare the entire region's mountain communities for extreme weather and related hazards, including flash floods, landslides and tornadoes. For this, the team is currently awaiting a multimillion-dollar grant decision from the NSF, in what until recently was a merit-based, peer-reviewed process at the federal agency. The NSF director resigned in April after orders from the White House to accept a 55% cut to the $9bn budget and fire half of the 1,700-person staff. Then, in an unprecedented move, a member of the governing body stepped down, lambasting Musk's unqualified Doge team for interfering in grant decisions. The days are long. It feels very lonely when the storms come in Harold Baker of Kentucky The NSF is the principal federal investor in basic science and engineering, and the proposed cut will be devastating in the US and globally. 'Rivers are different all over Appalachia, and if our research continues, we can build accurate flood and landslide models that help communities plan for storms in a changing climate,' said Jason Dortch, who set up the flood lab. 'We've submitted lots of great grant proposals, and while that is out of our hands, we will continue to push forwarded however we can.' *** Fleming-Neon is a former mining community in Letcher county with roughly 500 residents – a decline of almost 40% in the past two decades. The town was gutted by the 2022 storm, and only two businesses, a car repair shop and a florist, reopened. The launderette, pharmacy, dentist, clothing store and thrift shop were all abandoned. Randall and Bonnie Kincer, a local couple who have been married for 53 years, run the flower shop from an old movie theater on Main Street, which doubles up as a dance studio for elementary school children. The place was rammed with 120in of muddy water in 2022. In February, it was 52in, and everything still reeks of mould. The couple have been convinced by disinformation spread by conspiracy theorists that the recent catastrophic floods across the region, as well as Helene, were caused by inadequate river dredging and cloud seeding. The town's sorry plight, according to the Kincers, is down to deliberate manipulation of the weather system paid for by mining companies to flood out the community in order to gain access to lithium. (There are no significant lithium deposits in the area.) Bonnie, 74, is on the brink of giving up on the dance classes that she has taught since sophomore year, but not on Trump. 'I have total confidence in President Trump. The [federal] cuts will be tough for a little while but there's a lot of waste, so it will level out,' said Bonnie, who is angry about not qualifying for Fema assistance. 'We used all our life savings fixing the studio. But I cannot shovel any more mud, not even for the kids. I am done. I have PTSD. We are scared to death,' she said, breaking down in tears several times. The fear is understandable. On the slope facing the studio, a tiered retainer wall has been anchored into the hill to stabilize the earth and prevent an avalanche from destroying the town below. And at the edge of town, next to the power station on an old mine site, is a towering pile of black sludgy earth littered with lumps of shiny coal – the remnants of a massive landslide that happened as residents cleaned up after the February storm. Thomas Hutton's house was swamped with muddy water after the landslide blocked the creek, forcing it to temporarily change course towards a residential street. 'The floods have made this a ghost town. I doubt it will survive another one. If you mess with Mother Nature, you lose,' said Hutton, 74, a retired miner. The geologists fly drones fitted with Lidar (light detection and ranging): a remote sensing technology that uses pulsed lasers to create high-resolution, 3D, color models of the Earth's surface, and can shoot through trees and human-made structures to detect and monitor changes in terrain including landslides. The affordability and precision of the China-made Lidar has been a 'game changer' for landslides, but prices have recently rocketed thanks to Trump's tariff war. Related: Trump cuts will lead to more deaths in disasters, expert warns: 'It is really scary' The Lidar picked up fairly recent deforestation above the Fleming-Neon power plant, which likely further destabilized the earth. The team agrees that the landslide could keep moving, but without good soil data it's impossible to know when. Last year's NSF grant funded new soil and moisture sensors, as well as mini weather stations, which the landslide team is in the process of installing on 14 steep slopes in eastern Kentucky – the first time this has been done – including one opposite Hutton's house. Back at the lab, the geologists will use the data the sensors send back every 15 minutes to create models – and eventually a website where residents and local emergency managers can see how the soil moisture is changing in real time. The goal is to warn communities when there is a high landslide risk based on the soil saturation – and rain forecast. 'We have taken so many resources from these slopes. We need to understand them better,' said Sarah Johnson, a landslide expert. 'We're not sitting in an ivory tower making money from research. The work we do is about making communities safer.'
