B.C. Tories say NDP government should have fallen because of blurred Zoom screen
VICTORIA - If it were up to B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad, British Columbians would have found themselves at the start of an election campaign Thursday — because of a blurred Zoom screen.
Rustad says Speaker Raj Chouhan shouldn't have counted an online vote on Wednesday night by Rick Glumac, minister of state for trade, arguing the blurred background of his screen violated the legislature's prohibition against virtual backgrounds.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Toronto Star
2 hours ago
- Toronto Star
We talked to 106 political insiders. Here's why Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and Mark Carney couldn't land a majority in Canada's surprising election
The story so far In Part 1, we followed Mark Carney's unexpected rise and the unravelling of Pierre Poilievre's once-inevitable campaign — a race reshaped by the return of Donald Trump. In Part 2, Carney emerged as the front-runner, Poilievre scrambled to redefine his message, and Trump's tariff threats dominated the campaign. In this final chapter, we follow the last days on the trail, the election night surprises — and what comes next for both leaders. As the campaign's final weekend began, the mood on the Liberal plane was confident. Mark Carney seemed to be having fun. The Liberals were targeting seats they had narrowly won in 2019 and 2021, and trying to make inroads in areas where they showed new strength. The leader's presence on the ground was thought to boost a local candidate's electoral fortunes by two to three points — but since that bump only lasted a couple of days, it was crucial to have it at the tail end of the campaign. In the few days remaining, Carney was also driving at the campaign's central theme: his ability to address Trump's tariff threat. That Friday morning, a steelworker in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. told the Star he'd volunteered to stand behind Carney because he didn't believe 'the other guy' could protect his job. It was that kind of message the Liberals wanted Canadians to hear. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The next day, after his final news conference of the campaign, Carney stopped by a cafe in Newmarket. There, he was approached by a woman who said she was a realtor, and who urged him to get rid of the Liberals' increase to the capital gains tax. It was causing investors a lot of problems, she told him. 'I got rid of it. I know it was a dumb idea. As soon as they did, I was like, 'This is a stupid idea,'' Carney told her. 'And I'm sorry about that, but I wasn't there so I couldn't prevent it. But now I can.' 'So now I can go back and tell them you're the guy?' she asked. 'I'm the guy,' he replied. 'I'm the guy.' Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 2 Analysis Donald Trump turned Canada's predictable election into a chaotic race. Behind the scenes, Pierre Poilievre was struggling to adapt Althia Raj If Carney was concerned that a voter in a swing riding hadn't known his stance on a ballot-box issue, he didn't show it. The Liberals were on the hunt. Carney went to Mississauga, where he held a rally in an airplane hangar for Peel Region candidates. Then he flew to Windsor again where, standing near the Ambassador Bridge, he urged voters to help elect Liberals in the region's four ridings. 'We need to send all of them, I mean all of them, to Ottawa to build Canada strong,' he said. But some in the crowd were struggling with how to vote strategically. Peter Fox and his wife Virginia were strong supporters of Carney, but they had already voted for their riding's NDP incumbent, Brian Masse. '(Masse) has been in here a long, long time, and I think he's going to win again, so we went out in the early polls,' Fox told the Star. 'I want to block any votes going to the Conservative party.' Virginia thought the Conservatives' chances of winning in Windsor West were pretty high, even though the riding had not voted blue in 67 years. 'We see Conservative signs on lawns, which we never used to see before,' she said. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Supporters of Liberal Leader Mark Carney at a rally beside the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor on the last weekend before the election. Sean Kilpatrick/ The Canadian Press The Liberals showed no signs they were worried about progressive vote splits helping elect Conservatives. NDP-held seats in Windsor, Hamilton, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Edmonton, on Vancouver Island and in Metro Vancouver were part of the Liberal path to a majority. They were not about to change their plans. Back in Hamilton, Carney had been released early. The next day, the Liberals planned a big finish that would see Carney start the day rallying in Hamilton, then make stops in Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and the Victoria area before flying back to Ottawa overnight for election day. The campaign's senior staff were eating a late dinner at the Keg when they started seeing reports around 11 p.m. on social media about an incident in Vancouver. Someone had driven into a crowd at the city's Lapu-Lapu festival, a Filipino heritage celebration, killing several people and injuring others. They headed to the Courtyard Marriott Hotel where the Carney team was staying to work the phones, trying to figure out what had happened, how serious it was, how they could change the next day's plan, and when to wake up Carney. The Liberals had feared the suspect might have been a repeat offender out on bail — an example Pierre Poilievre often cited to suggest they were soft on crime — and that their campaign would be derailed at the last moment. To their relief, they learned through contacts that he had no prior criminal record. Around 1:30 a.m., Caley and Janice Charette, the former clerk of the Privy Council and a Carney adviser, went up to brief him and dial-in the prime minister's national security adviser and the public safety minister, as the campaign got to work on changing his itinerary. It would be, in the words of one B.C. MP, Carney's 'first domestic test.' The Liberals scaled back their Hamilton event and planned for Carney — in his capacity as prime minister — to address the nation. Then he'd meet some volunteers before flying to Saskatoon. They would reassess how best to handle the rest of the day while they were in the air. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Pierre Poilievre and his wife, Anaida Poilievre, at a campaign stop Keene, Ont. the day before the election. Fred Thornhill/ The Canadian Press Carney struck a serious and empathetic tone. He shared what the government knew about the situation, what it was doing, and extended his condolences to the grieving families of the dead and injured. Carney's decision to continue with his campaign was made easier by Poilievre's choice to press ahead with his own rallies, while adding a quick stop to a Filipino church in Mississauga to extend his condolences. And while there were differing opinions about how the Liberals should proceed, one reason Carney pushed to continue was that he was headed toward Vancouver. What he would do when he got there still wasn't clear. The Liberals ended up relying heavily on B.C. Premier David Eby's office for options: Carney and Eby would visit a church together and lay flowers at a memorial site near the tragedy. The Liberals cancelled a rally in Richmond, B.C. — there would be no gathering with thousands of people to celebrate. A rally in Calgary was nixed too. The schedule was now too tight, and something had to be dropped. Organizers would later wonder if that change had cost them a few seats. Liberal Leader Mark Carney stands in a pickup truck during a stop in Edmonton on April 27. Sean Kilpatrick/ The Canadian Press In Saskatoon, Carney struck a less partisan tone. The crowd was smaller than expected. In Edmonton, about 1,200 people crowded around Mayor Amarjeet Sohi's campaign office and into the parking lot of a strip mall. As Carney jumped on the back of a pickup truck to speak, Rajiv Bhalla told the Star that he was bringing back 'a sense of security.' 'We lost faith in Mr. Trudeau before, but now I think (Carney) revived our faith.' Nearby, Kim Falconer described herself as a staunch New Democrat. Her 'heart is with NDP,' she said, 'but my vote is with Mark Carney.' When he got to Vancouver, Carney strapped a black tie and headed to the church with Eby. Then he laid white roses at the memorial site, where a woman sang a moving rendition of 'Amazing Grace.' Tears flowed. A crowd had gathered. Someone in the back said, 'Thanks for coming, Prime Minister.' Carney hugged local MLA Sunita Dhir. She wept. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Later, in a field by the airport, Carney met with B.C. candidates and volunteers. It was obvious, he told Jeff Howe, the Liberal candidate in Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford, that the rally had to be scrapped. 'The right thing to do is usually the right thing to do,' he said. Liberal Leader Mark Carney places flowers at a memorial for the Lapu Lapu Day block party tragedy in Vancouver, B.C., on April 27. Sean Kilpatrick/ The Canadian Press An hour or so later, at the Sea Cider Farm and Ciderhouse outside Victoria, Carney was relaxed. It was almost midnight, the day was nearly over, the campaign just about done. He drew a laugh from the crowd when he joked that he was supposed to campaign in poetry and govern in prose, but he was campaigning in prose and more likely to 'govern in econometrics.' Though he struck a lighter tone, he kept to his message: the election was consequential, he told his supporters, and their efforts to get out the vote the next day were needed. It was a message millions of Canadians had heard loud and clear. 'I think this is the scariest weekend for Canada, because if this went sideways, I think it could be the end of Canada,' Julian Dunster, a local volunteer, told the Star. Earlier that evening, on the other side of the country, it had been the end of something else. Poilievre was concluding his final rally — he'd held more than 180 over the past three years — as he campaigned to become prime minister. His wife, Anaida, a constant presence at his side, had tears in her eyes. scariest weekend This is the scariest weekend for Canada, because if this went sideways, I think it could be the end of Canada, His voice cracked as he spoke about all the people who had shared their stories and placed their faith in him. 'I'm actually in awe, you know, that so many people have put their hopes that I can deliver for their future, for their lives,' Poilievre said. 'It means the world to me. Thank you. I am deeply grateful.' While he urged his supporters to vote, he also acknowledged the Conservatives might not pull off the victory that had once seemed so certain. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'I want you to know that no matter what happens tomorrow, I will be there to fight for you.' Like most of his team, he did not anticipate what lay ahead. 'We would have given a limb for this result in January' A handful of Carney's advisers watched the election results come in with him as he prepared his acceptance speech at Ottawa's Le Germain hotel. At first, it looked a little concerning. The Liberals had hoped to sweep Newfoundland, signalling that a red majority wave was coming. Instead, they failed to win Central Newfoundland and they lost Long Range Mountains to the Conservatives. (After a judicial recount, they also lost Terra Nova-The Peninsulas). Then in Nova Scotia, they flipped only two seats, Cumberland—Colchester and South Shore—St. Margarets. In Quebec, voters had decided early on that Carney's French and his lack of local knowledge wasn't an issue — and nothing during the campaign convinced them otherwise. Former Bloc Québécois supporters handed the Liberals nine new seats, securing their best performance in the province since in 1980. Liberal supporters as results are announced on election night in Ottawa. Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images So the news was relatively good until the results started coming in from Ontario, where they had hoped to gain 11 seats. That's not what happened. The shock of the night was Kamal Khera — a cabinet minister — losing her seat in Brampton West. Khera had topped the list of Liberal voter identifications in the country. How had she lost? ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Khera wasn't the only head-scratcher. The party also didn't foresee three-term MP Francesco Sorbara losing in Vaughan—Woodbridge — and by an enormous margin of nearly 15,000 votes. In the nearby riding of King—Vaughan, which the Liberals won in 2015 and in 2019, they weren't even in contention — the Conservative incumbent won it by more than 17,000 votes. Several other incumbents Carney had met with or whose ridings he visited over the weekend lost their seats: in Niagara South, Kitchener South—Hespeler, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Cambridge, Richmond Hill South, Aurora—Oak Ridges — Richmond Hill, York Centre, Newmarket—Aurora, and Windsor—Tecumseh. Sean Wiltshire, the head of the Liberals' data team was surprised by Windsor, where they failed to make gains and the Liberal incumbent lost by four votes. 'The swing in southwest Ontario was not what I thought it was going to be,' he told the Star. given a limb We would have given a limb for this result in January, and on election night we were all not celebrating As Carney headed off to the Liberal party's headquarters that night to give his acceptance speech, his campaign team assembled there in a makeshift war room. 'We would have given a limb for this result in January, and on election night we were all not celebrating. I was at the war room till like 4 a.m., hoping for some more switches — and we lost a few that we weren't hoping to lose,' said one top organizer. 'How do you end up winning Bay of Quinte but losing Brampton West?' asked another top Carney staffer. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW There were a lot of theories. Had voters heard so much in the last week about the Liberals winning a majority that they had decided to stay home? Had Muslim voters, upset with the party's stance on the war in Gaza, failed to turn out? Some incumbents were adamant that was the case, but a greater number seemed convinced it wasn't. Gta 'The most honest reflection of the country': Inside the 905 — the ridings that helped deny Mark Carney a majority Canada's political polarization is acutely visible in the Greater Toronto Area's suburban and rural ring — a diverse and fast-growing area of Gta 'The most honest reflection of the country': Inside the 905 — the ridings that helped deny Mark Carney a majority Canada's political polarization is acutely visible in the Greater Toronto Area's suburban and rural ring — a diverse and fast-growing area of Was the softness of the Liberal vote that had been flagged in the GTA — due to perceptions of crime, immigration, and housing constraints, and the groundwork done by the Conservatives — more entrenched than expected? Did the Liberals just have bad data? In Calgary and Edmonton, the Liberals failed to elect two potential cabinet ministers, George Chahal in Calgary Skyview and Sohi in Edmonton Southeast. In Surrey, Brampton, and Mississauga — areas core to the party's strength — the Liberals nearly lost several seats as the Conservatives' increased their vote by double-digit margins. In Brampton, the wins were razor thin. 'All of them almost lost,' reflected one MP. The Liberals had failed to see it coming. Why? 'I'd like to know,' said one field organizer. 'We can only make decisions based off of the data we're getting.' Andrew Bevan, the campaign's co-director, believes the party had good data for the most part. It won many of the seats it thought it was going to win in Atlantic Canada, in Quebec and in Manitoba. In Alberta, the Liberals hoped for four. They got two. But in Ontario, and especially in Brampton, they were off. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'We did all those things you'd normally do to try and cross-reference that the data we had on hand was valid,' Bevan told the Star. 'And the reality is in that one Brampton seat it wasn't, and the other Brampton seats were closer than we expected them to be. Likewise, in York (Region).' When candidates in Brampton raised the alarm midway through the campaign that they were losing their traditional supporters, the party commissioned a large third-language poll. It had not given them cause for concern. 'The doors were so divided,' a Peel Region MP explained. Long-time identified Liberal supporters were now telling canvassers they were voting Conservative, and past Conservative voters were now voting for Carney. 'I was having very unexpected people come and pick up Liberal signs from my office,' they said. The voter coalition had changed. One organizer joked that 'old white men came back' to save the party. Star Graphics Canadian federal election results: Check out our live riding map and see how the vote changed from 2021 Election graphics and morning-after analysis tell the story of Canada's 45th federal election. Star Graphics Canadian federal election results: Check out our live riding map and see how the vote changed from 2021 Election graphics and morning-after analysis tell the story of Canada's 45th federal election. White men over 50 had helped deliver many Liberal seats — in Victoria, and Bay of Quinte and Peterborough — and a host of other ridings were saved through their votes. One Mississauga MP described their voter base as largely NDP supporters, white voters over 50 and Muslims. But Brampton's voters, who are younger and include a larger Sikh population that split its support between the Liberals and the Tories, saw tougher races. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'If you're Sikh, you're happy that Trudeau stood by with the Sikh community. But if you are upset about the car thefts happening in your community, that you can't have a nice car sitting outside, that you have to install a Ring camera for security, that's going to annoy you more … There's a lot of goodwill towards the Liberals, but that's not how people vote,' that MP reflected. 'They vote based on how their individual lives are affected.' If the Liberals thought they had a challenge with the Conservatives' Tim Uppal and Jasraj Singh Hallan breathing down their necks, that party now had six new South Asian MPs to help spread the Conservatives' messages in areas key to forming government. But shifting vote intentions didn't just happen in the South Asian community. The Liberals' election night result prompted other questions. Why had they stopped talking to young Canadians? And how could the party do a better job of reaching out to them? sikhs If you're Sikh, you're happy that Trudeau stood by with the Sikh community. But if you are upset about the car thefts happening in your community … that's going to annoy you more What had happened to Liberal support with unionized workers? How had they let go of that advantage? And what would they do about keeping NDP supporters who had loaned them their votes? Had the centre-left party's vote not migrated, the Liberals might have had a string of losses across the country, notably in the GTA. Votes splits had damaged the NDP's chances of holding incumbent seats and reduced the party to its worst electoral result ever — seven seats — but it had also hurt the Liberals in places like Windsor, where the Conservative vote surged. Carney had cobbled together a coalition of supporters that included strange bedfellows: NDP voters, Quebec nationalists and older Progressive Conservatives who feared Trump and feared Poilievre. Could the Liberals keep that coalition together without Trump? Without Poilievre? ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Liberals had won most of the votes cast — for the first time since 2015 — nine new seats with 43.7 per cent support and more than 8.5 million votes. But Conservatives had also gained 25 seats, with 41.3 per cent of the vote, and more than 8 million votes. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party has won the federal election, capping a stunning turnaround in fortunes fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump's annexation threats and trade war. (AP Video / April 29, 2025) They had come up short, but the good news for Conservatives was that they came very close. Their vote share increased. Their ground game was impressive. They turned out their vote. And they made impressive inroads with key voting blocs: young Canadians, unionized workers, immigrants. They laid down a path for future success. 'We can't pretend we didn't lose,' said one Poilievre adviser. '(But) we still pulled off something pretty remarkable. And the coalition that we've got here now, the key for us has got to be how do we hold it together, and how do we expand a little bit.' The Conservatives feel they won on the ballot question they ran on: the need for change. But they didn't win it by enough. And they didn't win on the ballot question Carney ran on: who could best stand up to Trump. pretend we didn't lose We can't pretend we didn't lose, (but) we still pulled off something pretty remarkable Another week, some believe, might have made the difference. Some Liberals agree. For Conservatives, the surprise of the night was their leader's loss of his own seat in Carleton. 'That was a shock,' said another Poilievre adviser. Despite the news stories and the local warnings, the message from Jenni Byrne to the Conservative war room was not to worry: the leader's seat was not in jeopardy. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Poilievre got more votes than he did in 2021, but Bruce Fanjoy beat him by 4,513 in a race where voter turnout was more than 81 per cent. In the days that followed, much internal criticism was directed at Byrne. It was her responsibility as the senior leader of the team, another adviser argued, to ensure that while Poilievre was out campaigning, his riding was taken care of. So after an election campaign he very badly wanted, Poilievre has emerged as a wounded leader. A Conservative supporter reacts as she watches results at Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's election night event in Ottawa. Christinne Muschi/ The Canadian Press Some in his caucus feel vindicated for their concerns about his aggressive tone, their opposition to his courting of the far right with conspiratorial nods, their criticism of his media strategy — of not engaging with the mainstream media, showing hostility towards journalists, even banning candidates from taking part in debates. But Poilievre isn't going anywhere. He plans to be back in the House of Commons as leader of the Official Opposition soon as he wins an upcoming byelection in a safe Alberta riding. In the meantime, he has installed the loyal and non-threatening former party leader Andrew Scheer to keep his seat warm. Carney, meanwhile, must struggle with his own caucus dynamics: a backbench that is restless, former cabinet ministers who feel spurn, and resignations on the horizon. The 2025 election marked the end of a campaign with multiple storylines. It was a campaign that Trudeau had hoped to run — that he'll never know if he could have won. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW It is the story of a Liberal party coming back from the brink — from a likely third- or fourth-place finish — to a fourth term in government. It was an election that Conservatives won on the issues but lost before it started. And it was the story of two men who each dreamed decades ago of becoming Canada's prime minister, whose fortunes were in no small part determined by a foreign adversary no one saw coming. Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 2 Analysis Donald Trump turned Canada's predictable election into a chaotic race. Behind the scenes, Pierre Poilievre was struggling to adapt Althia Raj With files from Ryan Tumilty Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.
Toronto Sun
4 hours ago
- Toronto Sun
KINSELLA: Politicians hate each other until they don't
Former prime ministers Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper speak ahead of the King delivering the speech from the throne in the Senate in Ottawa on Tuesday, May 27, 2025. Photo by Blair Gable / THE CANADIAN PRESS I'll let you in on a little secret: they're lot friendlier than you know. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Members of Parliament, that is. Partisan differences notwithstanding, durable friendships persist behind the scenes. And evidence of that crept into full public view, this week, as King Charles alighted on Canadian soil to read the Liberal Platform Speech from the Throne. Ministers, MPs, Senators and staffers gathered on the Hill for the historic event, and things previously unseen became seen. Conservative and Liberal partisans were astounded, for example, by the widely-circulated photo of former Prime Ministers Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau, clearly enjoying each others' company. Harper was smiling, and Trudeau was seemingly convulsed with laughter. (Harper, unbeknownst to many, is a very, very funny guy.) Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Some readers, who apparently actually believe Question Period is real life, were astounded and appalled. 'Two-faced!' said 'Macaw' over on a Reddit thread, although it is uncertain which leader he/she was referring to. Trudeau 'behaved like a child!' pronounced 'Ask Revolutionary1517.' And: 'Weak men in suits!' declared 'Basedregular1917.' And so on, and so on. Knowledgeable commenters thought the Trudeau-Harper exchange wasn't all that unusual – it was nice, even – but the uninformed still don't seem to understand that Ottawa will always, always be our Hollywood for ugly people. It's like pro wrestling, but without the sparkly wrestling singlets. The hate is fake. Another example: Trudeau's footwear. Several conservative members of the commentariat were positively in a lather that the former Liberal leader would have the effrontery to show up in running shoes. CBC (natch) even spent time researching the provenance of the Prime Ministerial sneakers: Trudeau was wearing a pair of Adidas Gazelle shoes, reported an agog CBC journalist — who (natch) was paid by you, the taxpayer, to find out. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The shoes cost about $150 over on the Adidas website, and Trudeau-haters were in a spit-flecked fury about the indignity of it all. Dimitri Soudas, who was one of Harper's PR fart-catchers, declared: 'I don't know what to say.' (That's a first.) Some Trudeau critics even consulted Debretts, the style guide for British etiquette: 'Those invited to royal events usually want to do their best to be correct. Specific dress codes, such as black tie, should be adhered to. It is generally best to err on the more conservative side.' Well, Trudeau didn't. The world didn't end, no one died. Perhaps the best response to Adidas-gate came from a longtime conservative, and a former Harper diplomatic appointee, no less: Vivian Bercovici, our former ambassador to Israel. Said Bercovici (who, full disclosure, is a smart and good friend): 'I think it was brilliant. Somebody made a point of telling staffers that he hates brown shoes. Justin always had a thing for brown dress shoes. This is the cleverest response.' This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Pierre Poilievre, no longer a Member of Parliament, showed up as a guest to listen to the King read the Speech from the Throne. Some, like The Beaverton , were a tad uncharitable: 'Pierre Poilievre attends Speech From The Throne with face pressed against Senate window,' they headlined their satirical report. 'The unemployed Conservative Party leader began the royal visit following the throngs of well wishers along Wellington Street where the King and Queen traveled in their ceremonial horse-drawn carriage. Poilievre followed the procession as he ran behind the crowd, occasionally jumping up so he could be seen, calling the King's name,' chortled The Beaverton . In reality, no one gave Poilievre a hard time for being in a spot typically reserved for elected Members. Quite a few extended friendly greetings, in fact. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The day was like that. When word came that former Prime Minister Jean Chretien was not present because of minor heart surgery, my inbox was flooded with Conservatives extending best wishes. I passed them along to my former boss, who is fine and resting comfortably at home. Prime Minister Mark Carney, meanwhile, was spotted wearing the larger of his Officer of the Order of Canada medals — which, not only is he permitted to, he is actually required to do when in the presence of the King. Notwithstanding that, conservative complainers carped about it. One commented on my X feed: 'I'm surprised there has been zero commentary about our rather grand PM wearing a giant medal to the throne speech.' Read More 'A giant medal.' Good Lord. He's not dressing up as Flavor Flav, folks. My response: 'He's a member of the Order of Canada. It's allowed. Try and keep up.' And that, perhaps, is the best advice of all: don't believe everything you see and hear, folks. Ottawa is a lot like a hockey game: everyone plays hard, everyone gets their elbows up. And then, when the game is over, the jerseys come off and everyone gets together for a beer. It's Ottawa, after all: a few square acres surrounded by reality. RECOMMENDED VIDEO Toronto & GTA Sunshine Girls Toronto & GTA Sunshine Girls Canada
Toronto Star
12 hours ago
- Toronto Star
Donald Trump turned Canada's predictable election into a chaotic race. Behind the scenes, Pierre Poilievre was struggling to adapt
The story so far In Part 1, we followed Mark Carney's unexpected rise and the unravelling of Pierre Poilievre's once-inevitable campaign — a race reshaped by the return of Donald Trump. In Part 2, the campaign kicks off, the ballot question shifts, and the stakes for Canada escalate. It was now clear to Poilievre's campaign that there would be 'dueling ballot questions.' Carney was positioning himself to run against Trump, portraying himself as a serious man with a serious plan who would 'never ever bow down to a bully.' And Trudeau, who was still the prime minister, was helping lay the groundwork for that message and carving out his own legacy by announcing that Ottawa would fight back with escalating tariffs. He called on Canadians to stand up for their country. On Feb. 7, he went further, telling a group of business leaders that Trump was serious about making Canada his country's 51st state because he wanted its vast mineral resources. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Conservatives needed to pivot. Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 3 Analysis We talked to 106 political insiders. Here's why Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and Mark Carney couldn't land a majority in Canada's surprising election Althia Raj 'We at least needed to play enough defence on the Trump issue that we could take that off the table for as many Canadians as possible,' said a Poilievre adviser. Days after launching a new ad that made no mention of Trump, the Conservatives opened a new message track. On Feb. 15, caucus members, staff and their families were invited to dress in red and white for a 'Canada First' rally in Ottawa. The party planned to record an ad that showed Poilievre could stand up to Trump too, that he also had a plan, and that the Conservatives would defend the country just as vociferously as the Liberals — 'that, in many ways, we were better prepared to take on that challenge,' one adviser explained. Pierre Poilievre at the 'Canada First' rally on Feb. 15 in used his 66-minute speech at the rally to reframe some of his long-standing policies. His pledge to 'axe the tax' was now 'an even bigger issue,' he insisted, because combined with Trump's tariffs, it would 'decimate' Canadian industries and jobs. His tax cuts were branded 'patriotic,' and his pledge to scrap Liberal environmental regulations that blocked oil and gas development, he argued, were more necessary than ever. It had taken the Conservative leader a while to get to this point. Pundits suggested the party's base was split; polling suggested a slight majority of the party's supporters preferred Trump to his Democratic challenger, Kamala Harris. But the Liberals would not let Poilievre rebrand himself as 'Captain Canada.' Ads released that day highlighted Poilievre's claims that Canada was 'broken' and that Canadians were 'stupid,' and juxtaposed his words with similar MAGA talking points from Trump. They stressed that the Conservative leader was the 'wrong choice' at the 'wrong time.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Liberals felt their ' Made in America ' ad was one of their most successful efforts at hardening their support. Some organizers wondered whether it should have been broadcast for longer or brought back at the end of the election campaign. The Conservatives fought back with a contrast ad of their own, suggesting Trump wanted Canadian jobs and Carney would help him ship them to the U.S. 'It was a constantly changing environment,' noted one Conservative. 'And because of that, we had a plan that was sort of constantly getting updated.' Public opinion polls were tightening up. A February survey from Leger suggested the Conservatives would be in a dead heat with the Liberals if they were led by Carney. Angus Reid suggested that public support for the Liberals, with Carney as their presumed leader, had increased 21 points in two months, with New Democrat and Bloc Québécois voters flocking to them, and the Conservatives dropping five points. Carney's leadership team felt momentum too. Earlier that month, so many people showed up to a meet and greet at Joe Kool's pub in London, Ont. that they couldn't all fit in. A week later, the same thing happened in North Vancouver when an event booked at a Milestones restaurant had to be moved to a rented ballroom to fit 1,000 people. Even in the Conservative heartland, Carney packed the Flying Monkeys craft brewery in Barrie, Ont. on a weekday, during working hours. They were so confident that planning for the general election was now fully underway. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Not that there weren't hiccups. Carney visibly struggled during the Liberal leadership candidates' French-language debate in Montreal, when he couldn't tell the moderator how much it cost a family of four to fill their weekly grocery cart. In earlier interviews, he'd mistakenly suggested in French that he wanted to cut federal transfer payments to the provinces and individuals. Now he was saying that he 'agreed with Hamas.' 'We do not agree with Hamas,' Freeland interrupted. 'Against Hamas,' Carney clarified. Just as Trudeau's unpopularity masked Poilievre's mistakes, Trump's unpopularity seemed to mask Carney's weaknesses. But many voters had already concluded they liked what they saw. Dismissive, prickly and condescending On the morning of March 14, Mike Myers called. Carney was about to be sworn in as Canada's 24th prime minister. He had won the Liberal leadership five days earlier on the first ballot with 85.9 per cent support. It was more than Trudeau received in 2013 (80 per cent), more than Poilievre received from Conservative members in 2022 (68 per cent). Freeland had come in a distant second with eight per cent. On the back porch of the Governor General's residence, Jane Deeks, Carney's director of digital strategy, took a video call from Myers on her phone. Huddled beside her were Mike Maka, deputy campaign manager for the upcoming Liberal election tour, Thomas Pitfield, who would be the campaign's executive director, and Gerald Butts and his wife, Jodi. Days earlier, Maka had emailed the Scarborough native after his March 1 appearance on Saturday Night Live, where he'd worn a 'Canada is not for sale' T-shirt and mouthed 'elbows up' during the show's closing credits. Myers had called back that afternoon, enthusiastically. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The Mark Carney-Mike Myers ad. While they were brainstorming ideas for a Carney ad — one that would focus on Canada, and try not too hard to be funny, out the window Justin Trudeau could be seen, with Katie Telford at his side, walking out of Rideau Hall after resigning as prime minister. That afternoon, the new prime minister's first move — designed to show he was a change from Trudeau — was a theatrical signing of a document that ordered the 'carbon tax' reduced to zero. As Conservatives quibbled over whether the Liberal photo-op carried any regulatory weight, Carney flew to Europe to present himself the way he wanted Canadians to see him — in touch with Canada's traditional values in a meeting with King Charles, and at home on the international stage, being warmly embraced by French President Emmanuel Macron. The trip was not entirely smooth. Carney demonstrated that he could be dismissive, prickly and condescending — something his staff and some cabinet ministers had already noticed — when he snapped at journalists during a news conference. An adviser suggested that was a useful learning moment for the new prime minister. If he hoped to contrast his demeanour with that of Poilievre, Carney needed to always act like the adult in the room — he could not afford to be anything but calm, composed, and patient during the election campaign. Back in Canada, Poilievre was still leaning into his 'axe the tax' pledge, unwilling to shed a policy that had already delivered so much for the Conservatives. ('It was such an unbelievably effective wedge against the Liberals, it was hard to let go of,' a Poilievre adviser later noted.) Not only would he scrap the consumer carbon tax, Poilievre said, but he would also scrap the industrial price on carbon, which he billed as a 'shadow' tax that increased the cost of all goods. wedge (The carbon tax) was such an unbelievably effective wedge against the Liberals, it was hard to let go of Carney, meanwhile, set out to further distance himself from Trudeau, and to demonstrate his pragmatism. He announced he would eliminate the GST on new homes costing up to $1 million for first-time homebuyers — a proposal very similar to one made earlier by Poilievre. Then he reversed the previous Liberal government's increase in the capital gains tax. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW He would make more promises that were similar to previously announced Conservative pledges: an income-tax cut for all Canadians; cutting municipal development charges to spur home construction; buying new icebreakers for the North, investing in the Canadian Rangers program, and fixing the Canadian Armed Forces recruitment process; allowing workers who travel far for work to deduct their expenses, boosting apprenticeship grants in the skills trades and increasing funding for the Union Training and Innovation Program. By echoing promises that Poilievre had been making for months — and, in some cases, years — Carney was trying to move the conversation away from the two rivals' policy differences, and towards what he wanted to focus on: leadership. 'He's Mr. Business' On the eve of the election call, Maka and Deeks walked into their respective offices at the Liberal party's Ottawa headquarters. Maka wrote on a white board for his team, 'He's not a rock star, he's Mr. Business.' This wasn't another Trudeau campaign. Carney's personal appearances, rallies and media events all needed a different vibe. Deeks, now the Liberals' deputy campaign manager for digital, pinned a piece of paper to a bulletin board, on which she had written for her team, 'Stand up to President Trump and build the economy.' Every ad, every message from the campaign, would need to come back to those two ideas. On March 23, a day before MPs were set to return to the House of Commons, Carney went to Rideau Hall and asked Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to call an election for April 28. It would be a 37-day campaign — the shortest legally possible. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW When he emerged, Carney asked Canadians for a strong mandate to deal with Trump. He framed the coming election as one to decide who could best deal with a crisis, calling Trump's 51st state rhetoric and the tariffs he was promising existential threats to Canada. Across the Ottawa River, Poilievre made the case for why the Liberals should be sent packing, and why his Conservatives could be trusted to make the big changes Canada needed. Poilievre had started trying to distance himself from Trump, jumping on the U.S. president's comment that he thought it would be 'easier to deal, actually, with a Liberal' heading the Canadian government, and that 'the Conservative that's running is, stupidly, no friend of mine.' In response, the Conservative leader posted on X, 'it is true, I am not MAGA. I am for Canada First. Always.' Mr. President, it is true. I am not MAGA. I am for Canada First. Always. Canada has always been America's best friend & ally. But we will NEVER be the 51st state. — Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) February 28, 2025 But comments made weeks earlier by an ally were coming back to haunt him. In an interview with the right-wing website Breitbart, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith had said she not only asked Trump administration officials to 'pause' tariff threats to help the federal Conservatives, but also had described Poilievre as a better partner for the Americans, sharing her view that the 'perspective that Pierre would bring would be very much in sync with, I think … the new direction in America.' When the campaign began, the Liberals had overtaken the Conservatives in public opinion polls. 'It was an extremely productive call' The Liberal leader's campaign did not get off to the smoothest start. After leaving Rideau Hall, Carney flew to St. John's, Newfoundland for a rally. He was nervous. The crowd wanted to support him. He was serious. The crowd wanted to cheer. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Then, midway through a stump speech from which he would not deviate much throughout the campaign, Carney declared that the Americans wanted our country. Someone in the crowd yelled back, 'They can't have it!' Carney smiled. 'They can't have it,' he replied. His advisers, who had worried about how their neophyte candidate would fare under the pressure and scrutiny of running for the highest office in the land, breathed a sigh of relief. Liberal Party of Canada Leader Mark Carney with a supporter at his campaign kick-off rally in St. John's on March 23. Frank Gunn/ The Canadian Press Several thousand kilometres away, the Conservatives were trying to project a different image of Carney. They suggested the Liberal leader had profited off sick coal miners in the U.S., describing the company he chaired, global investment firm Brookfield Asset Management, as 'Carney's company.' Poilievre suggested Carney was corrupt. He accused the Liberal leader of using his position as an adviser to Trudeau to obtain a multimillion-dollar loan for Brookfield from Chinese bankers. He accused Carney of refusing to disclose his conflicts of interest, of not divesting of all of his assets, of engaging in improper tax dodging practices while at Brookfield. Some of those allegations were repeated in 'Sneaky Mark Carney ' ads. But the attempt to brand Carney as 'sneaky' didn't bother the Liberals. To them, the bigger threat was that the Conservatives would try to convince voters that the Liberal party was trying to pull a fast one on the country — that 'it wasn't that Mark Carney was sneaky, it was that the Liberals were,' in the words of one Carney adviser. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'That's what they f- - -ed up,' the Carney adviser continued. 'Had they started with 'sneaky Liberals trying to give you Mark Carney,' that … would have been a different campaign.' Liberals also say they found the Brookfield allegations weren't much of a concern. In nightly focus groups, 'People were like, 'Oh, he's a business guy. He did business-guy things. I don't care',' said the same adviser. They f'd up That's what they f- - -ed up. Had they started with 'sneaky Liberals trying to give you Mark Carney,' that … would have been a different campaign Poilievre's team had hoped that one allegation they'd dug up would cause serious damage — not at the level of Trudeau's history of dressing up in blackface, but a significant blow. They believed they'd uncovered evidence that Carney had plagiarized parts of the doctoral thesis he submitted at Oxford University, and leaked the information to the National Post. A categorical denunciation by Carney's doctoral supervisor, that there was 'no evidence of plagiarism … nor any unusual academic practices,' laid the story to rest. The Liberal leader, however, had other problems. During a campaign stop in Nova Scotia, Carney mispronounced the name of a star candidate in Quebec, Nathalie Provost, and mistakenly described her as a victim of 'the shootings at Concordia.' Provost had been shot during the 1989 massacre at École polytechnique, the engineering school at the Université de Montréal where 14 women were murdered. As some Quebecers wondered whether Carney knew anything about their province, the Liberals announced he would shun a leaders' debate organized by TVA, the French-language private broadcaster. Carney gave different reasons why he didn't want to do it — the $75,000 participating fee, the exclusion of the Greens. Pundits speculated that the real reason was his French wasn't strong enough. Carney was struggling to find his footing. Meanwhile, Poilievre packed rallies with thousands of supporters in North York and Hamilton. The Conservatives were projecting momentum. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Pierre Poilievre at one the many packed rallies he held during the campaign. Cathie Coward/The Hamilton Spectator Then Donald Trump swooped in. On March 26, the president signed an executive order that would impose 25 per cent tariffs on all automobile imports to the U.S. the following week. When the news broke, Carney happened to be meeting with Lana Payne, the president of Unifor, the union that represents Canadian autoworkers. 'You know, this will hurt us, but through this period by being together, we will emerge stronger,' he told reporters in Kitchener, Ont. Then he suspended his campaign and headed to Ottawa. (Later, Carney would suggest to Radio-Canada that he enjoyed governing much more than campaigning, which he summarized as, 'We give speeches, we shake hands, we look at cows.') In Toronto that evening, Premier Doug Ford's campaign manager told an Empire Club audience that the federal Conservatives were going to lose the election if they didn't pivot quickly and address the main ballot question on voters' mind: Trump. 'You gotta get on that issue, and you might not totally win, but you can't lose by 20 points on it,' strategist Kory Teneycke told the crowd. 'You've got to have a pivot that is taking some of the momentum of that issue shift and directing it towards things that are yours.' The next morning, Poilievre offered his response. Speaking directly to autoworkers who were at risk of losing their jobs, he said his message to Trump was, 'Knock it off.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW President Trump's unjustified tariffs on our auto sector are an assault on our economy and workers. The Americans will soon see how the pain will be felt on both sides of the border. Canada First Conservatives will build a Canadian economic fortress to protect our affected jobs… — Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) March 27, 2025 Carney, by contrast, met with his Canada-U.S. cabinet committee, then addressed the nation with a sombre warning. 'The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation, is over,' he declared. The next day he spoke on the phone with Trump, then held a virtual meeting with the premiers. The phone call had gone well. Carney had taken the long view, concluding that if he won the election, he'd need to deal with Trump. He told the U.S. president the two could work together. The tone was respectful. The president did not antagonize Carney by referring to him as 'governor,' the way he had with Trudeau. But Trump made his pitch for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state; Carney, according to two sources, responded, 'We can talk about a lot of things, but not that.' After the call, Carney's team waited nervously for Trump's inevitable post on social media. It was a glowing review. 'I just finished speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney, of Canada. It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada's upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for both the United States of America and Canada,' Trump wrote. 'Thank you for your attention to this matter.' A Conservative adviser wondered if the cordial tone of the conversation 'slightly limited (Carney's) ability to talk as harshly as he had been.' But Carney appeared relaxed as he confidently swatted away reporters' questions about the call at a news conference that afternoon. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The political rookie had survived his first week. He had a bounce in his step. According to their own internal polling, the Liberals were about to cross into majority territory, on track to win between 182 and 187 seats in the House of Commons. Those projections would remain there for most of the campaign. 'We were all flustered' As Donald Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement loomed, Carney paused his campaign — and Poilievre prepared a big strategic pivot. 'There were constantly tensions on the campaign between how much we should talk about Donald Trump — because we didn't have a choice and it would look incredibly unserious and tone-deaf if we didn't mention him — and how much we could get away with not talking about Trump, because it just wasn't helpful for us,' said a Conservative adviser. trump There were constantly tensions on the campaign (about) how much we should talk about Donald Trump That day, Poilievre spoke to a roomful of partisans designed to look like an Economic Club gathering of business leaders, in an attempt to address that tension. He outlined the Conservatives' plan to deal with the Trump White House. Poilievre and his strategists would see how the speech landed — if he needed to keep talking about Trump or whether these comments would suffice — and adjust if necessary. Poilievre looked the part of a prime minister, standing behind a podium adorned with a red maple leaf. A blue backdrop with the slogan 'Canada First, for a change' signalled another message shift. That afternoon, Trump unveiled his list of countries targeted for 'reciprocal' tariffs. Campaign workers in the Liberal and Conservative war rooms watched attentively. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW 'We were all flustered around a TV trying to pause it at the right freeze frame so that when he held up his stupid chart high enough we could actually see if Canada was on there,' recounted one Conservative staffer. Canada was not on the list. President Donald Trump announced widespread reciprocal tariffs on April 2. Canada was not on this list. Mark Schiefelbein/AP Carney had flown to Ottawa to meet with his Canada-U.S. cabinet committee. The following day, he would speak with the premiers. Although Canada had been spared new tariffs, previously announced auto tariffs were scheduled to come into effect at midnight. The 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum remained, as well as tariffs on softwood lumber. And there was talk of other tariffs coming on pharmaceuticals, copper, and semiconductors. The next day, Carney announced new reciprocal tariffs, and measures to aid Canadian businesses and help Canadian workers access Employment Insurance more quickly. Trump was again dominating the conversation. 'It was loud and clear in my riding' By the third week of the campaign, public polling suggested the Liberals had the support of 44 per cent of voters nationally — putting them on track for a solid majority government. Internally, riding forecasts were full of opportunity, with 14 seats potentially up for grabs in Quebec, and another eight in Alberta. Across the country, Liberal candidates were recounting stories of people they'd never seen before stopping by their offices to drop off cheques or to volunteer. As the campaign reached the halfway point, the Conservatives were balancing aggressive pitches in NDP-held ridings in B.C. and Liberal ridings in the GTA, with efforts to shore up their traditional support. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Poilievre held a rally near Edmonton, where the Liberals hoped to make inroads. Before a crowd the Conservatives claimed was 15,000 strong — police pegged attendance at closer to 9,000 — Poilievre was endorsed by Stephen Harper, his former boss. That endorsement would later be highlighted in an ad with the former prime minister saying he was uniquely qualified to compare Carney and Poilievre since the two men had both worked for him. Former prime minister Stephen Harper endorsed Poilievre. Harper said he was uniquely qualified to compare Carney and Poilievre since the two men had both worked for him. JASON FRANSON THE CANADIAN PRESS The Conservatives also started to shift their message, making a more forceful case for change, that Canada could not afford another four-years of Liberal government. Elsewhere on the campaign trail, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet continued to struggle to insert themselves into the conversation. Singh was pleading with voters to send New Democrats to Ottawa to cap grocery prices, ban corporations from buying affordable homes, invest in health care, and expand pharmacare. "We got this, we got this, let's go!" Singh cried out during a campaign stop in Saskatoon that sounded more desperate than enthusiastic. On the other side of the country, Blanchet was arguing that a vote for the Bloc helped ensure Quebec ridings had a more powerful voice in Ottawa. But most Quebecers seemed to agree with former Bloc MP Kristina Michaud, who told the Star's ' It's Political ' podcast, that with Trump at the door, many voters felt the Bloc was 'a luxury that people cannot really afford right now.' While the wind seemed to be at the Liberals' backs, their candidates in the GTA, Alberta and B.C. were encountering a worrisome trend as they knocked on doors: Their voter coalition seemed to be changing, and long-time supporters were abandoning the party. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Even before the campaign began, the Liberals were concerned by softness in their support in the GTA, especially in York Region, and within the South Asian community. 'We had a problem but we didn't know how acute that problem was,' said one Carney organizer. Candidates were reporting that second-generation Sikhs, Hindus, Muslims and Italians — and especially young men — were shunning the Liberals. 'There was a generational difference between parents and their children,' added another staff member. Some Liberals felt they had to play catch-up in a race the Conservatives had started running years ago. 'They've done a really good job convincing a lot of diaspora communities that they are Conservatives, and that crime is the number-one ballot box issue,' said a GTA incumbent. It was a race they were bound to lose. 'There's not a lot you can do in a 30-day campaign to fix two or three years of non-stop Conservative attacks on immigration, on public safety,' explained the Carney organizer. Crime and immigration were coming up a lot. 'It was loud and clear in my riding, it was loud and clear in York Region, and it was loud clear in Brampton,' said another Toronto-area MP. acute problem We had a problem but we didn't know how acute that problem was The Liberals had leaned hard into the threat Trump posed to Canada as they tried to shift the ballot-box question away from 10 years of Trudeau. And for many voters, it was the driving factor for their vote. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW But for a lot of voters from South Asian backgrounds, it was not. 'They did not buy that premise,' said a Liberal organizer, who said many of them felt the Trudeau government had failed to adequately respond to concerns they had raised about immigration and crime. 'They still really cared about their issues and not Trump.' Speaking in Brampton on April 10, Carney finally made a crime announcement: a 27-point plan that was never raised again on the campaign trail. Although the Liberals pledged to make bail conditions stricter and to hire thousands more officers for the Canada Border Services Agency and RCMP, the messaging leaned heavily on firearms regulations. Back at Liberal headquarters, the campaign discussed whether an ad could help neuter the immigration issue. There was strong pushback, with some fearing it would backfire and draw attention to allegations that the Liberal government had bungled the file. Instead, Carney's team decided to focus on crime. Bill Blair, then the defence minister and a former Toronto police chief, was asked to voice a community safety ad focused on guns. Blair had performed this role during the 2021 campaign, and the ads were seen as crucial to propping up Liberal support the in 905 area. But this time, using gun control as a wedge issue seemed to misdiagnose the problem. These voters weren't worried about guns — they were worried about criminals out on bail, their homes being invaded and their cars being stolen. Although the ads tested well, Liberal candidates were not impressed. 'We went to that well one too many times,' said another Carney adviser. In response, Blair was tapped to do another ad on bail reform which was placed in ethnic media. Several other ads, in Punjabi, Hindi and Urdu, were made to address crime concerns. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW But there would be no further crime announcements. 'We were winning on the main message,' explained one team member. 'Why would we try to fight on an issue we probably won't win on, where the Conservatives are seen as stronger than us?' Main message We were winning on the main message. Why would we try to fight on an issue we probably won't win on? 'We just ran out of time' It was week four, and with another week and a half to go, Carney was hunkered down in Montreal, preparing for three crucial events: an appearance on the Quebec TV talk show 'Tout le monde en parle,' then the French- and English-language leaders' debates. Carney had spent two and a half days preparing for the debates — about the same as Poilievre. Steven MacKinnon, the Liberal incumbent for Gatineau, played the role of Poilievre, outgoing Toronto MP Arif Varani played Singh, Sen. Pierre Moreau played Blanchet, and Quebec-area incumbent Joël Lightbound played Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault. Carney had also spent two weeks preparing to be interviewed and to debate in French — for which a mistake could easily cost the Liberals their majority — with Andrée-Lyne Hallé, the other national campaign co-director. The two had spent close to an hour each day, often discussing on the plane. 'She didn't just speak French to him,' a colleague explained. 'She taught him how to be a Quebecer.' The debates, a Carney adviser had told the Star weeks earlier, would 'only matter if he loses his cool and snaps at someone.' He did not. The Conservatives hoped the debates would provide a moment — a knockout punch or an error in French — that could change the course of the campaign. They did not. But they gave Poilievre a platform to show Canadians — critically, the ones whose support he was losing — that he could shift his tone. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW The problem was that he'd waited too long. 'The leader during the debates was the best version of him that I have ever seen,' said a Poilievre adviser. 'We just ran out of time.' Public opinion surveys suggested the Conservatives were starting to narrow the gap with the Liberals. An Abacus Data poll, from April 14 and 15, found support for the Conservatives had increased six points over two weeks. More voters were now saying change was needed. The Conservatives leaned more forcefully into that message in the campaign's remaining days. The Liberals believed that waiting so long had been their rivals' biggest mistake, and were grateful the pivot hadn't come sooner. 'They caught on to the thing that worked too late,' said one adviser. They had anticipated the Conservatives would get on the change message about two weeks earlier. 'Our argument would have been, 'Change can be many things. In the United States, change is Donald Trump. We're both change. What kind of change do people want?'' No longer running to win Advance polls were held on Easter weekend. The Liberals had debated whether to extend the writ by a week to avoid the holiday but Carney, a devout Catholic, had given his approval and they now felt they had made the right choice. Their voters showed up in droves. Some believe the election was won that weekend. Remarkably, one fixture of election campaigns was still missing by the time Canadians started to vote: none of the major parties had released a platform. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW Carney, who was greatly involved in writing the platform and made changes until the last moment, had wanted to release it the morning of the French-language debate. But the Liberals had gotten word the Conservatives wanted to wait to see their numbers before releasing their own, so they waited. On April 19, the Liberals finally released their costed platform: 'Canada Strong, Mark Carney's plan to unite, secure, protect and build.' (Carney polled ahead of the Liberal brand.) It booked a lot of spending: $129 billion over four years. There were few details on savings the Liberals would find, as Carney tried to tell Canadians that the government would be spending less and investing more. It sounded a lot like Trudeau in 2015 — but Carney was a highly regarded economist, so perhaps voters would give him a pass. Liberal Leader Mark Carney at the release of his party's election platform in Whitby, Ont., on April 19. Christinne Muschi/ The Canadian Press The Conservatives, now under pressure, released their numbers after the advance polls had closed. They also booked a lot of spending: $154 billion over four years. But by using a different accounting method — including the revenue from the projected economic impact of government spending — Poilievre was projecting much smaller deficits. Few seemed to care. Standing before his candidates in an empty hall in Woodbridge, Ont., Poilievre also didn't appear to care. The morning he released the platform that he and his party had worked on for a year and a half, he was more interested in discussing a report from an obscure government branch known as Policy Horizons. Poilievre mischaracterized the report to suggest the government was predicting a future where upward mobility was unheard of, where owning a home was an unrealistic goal, and where people needed to hunt, fish and forage on public lands to feed themselves. ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW While the Conservatives had shifted their communications strategy to appeal to older voters by removing Poilievre's name and image from a campaign ad featuring golfers, the leader now appeared to be pandering to a narrower base by flirting with conspiracy theories. For three days, Poilievre talked about the report — much to the bewilderment of many on his campaign staff. It was a strange move for Poilievre, who is described as a 'workaholic' and a micromanager 'who reviews basically everything that goes out personally,' and is known to message employees at 2 a.m. with policy questions, speech suggestions or even requests to change the font colour on digital products. Some Conservatives concluded he was no longer running to win the election, and was only trying to maintain his grip on the leadership of his party. By then, the Liberals and the Conservatives knew how many of their identified supporters had voted in the advance polls. The Liberals felt confident. The polling had not significantly changed, and it looked — to everyone — like they were going to win again. But some felt a majority government was not a lock. Conservative support was growing in some quarters, and the Liberal field team worried about tight numbers in Ontario. Poilievre's base was motivated, and was expected to show up and vote. The Liberals weren't sure if many of the new ridings that appeared to be in play had the ground game required to turn out their vote. In places like Victoria, they had twice thought they could pull it off and had come up short. Would the same thing happen again? 'Do you trust your ground game … in those ridings that don't have as much of a history of, you know, executing really good local campaigns?' asked one organizer. 'It's not a slight against the locals, but it's not like a battleground GTA riding that's used to very competitive and sophisticated campaigns.' ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW This would prove to be an interesting observation one week later. For now, though, Trump had receded from the news cycle, and voters were turning their attention back to affordability concerns, crime and safety. Carney was starting to sound a little stale. The Conservatives were slowly increasing their support. Ground game Do you trust your ground game … in those ridings that don't have as much of a history of, you know, executing really good local campaigns? The Liberals, who had plotted out a few paths to victory — a repeat of the 2015 campaign, or if they lost ground in the GTA, different options that focused on pickups in B.C., including Vancouver Island, more in seats in Quebec, and in the Prairies — were now deciding where to shift resources. They based those decisions on information gleaned from nearly daily focus groups, phone polls and riding surveys, by aggregating existing public data, by factoring in anecdotal feedback from the field and weighing how well their fundraising was going, and by absorbing all the voter identifications from candidates knocking on doors across the country. The result was a rating for each riding on a sliding scale: diamond, platinum, gold, silver, bronze, steel or wood. Where a riding stood on that scale usually determined which resources — if any — would be allocated there. They were paying particular attention to one riding — as were the Conservatives, who had realized that Poilievre might actually be in trouble in Carleton, which he'd represented in Parliament for more than 20 years. They rounded up party staff and called for volunteers to knock on doors there. So did the Liberals. Bruce Fanjoy, Liberal Party of Canada candidate for Carleton, right, ran against Poilievre and ultimately won. Spencer Colby/ The Canadian Press Their local candidate, Bruce Fanjoy, had been pounding the pavement in the riding for more than two years, but his campaign really gained momentum after Carney became leader. 'I'm 60 years old. I've never voted anything but Conservative,' a man named Bob Neske told the Star outside a Liberal rally in Nepean, Ont., on April 20. 'I am actually out canvassing for … the Liberal guy to try to get Pierre Poilievre out of politics because I think he's a horrible leader.' The number of people identifying as Liberal voters in the riding had jumped. Fanjoy's fundraising numbers were impressive, and a phone poll of the riding suggested he actually had a shot at unseating Poilievre. Jamie Kippen, the Liberals' deputy campaign manager for national field, sent more than 20 staff members to the riding. 'Most ridings get one. A riding we are really targeting gets two or three central staff,' explained a field organizer. 'Kippen threw everything including the kitchen sink at that riding.' Up Next Read Part 3: The last days on the trail, the election night surprises — and what comes next for both leaders. Star Exclusive: Part 1 Analysis Trudeau was done, Carney was new, but Poilievre made a critical mistake. Here's how the Conservative's set themselves up to fail Althia Raj Star Exclusive: Part 3 Analysis We talked to 106 political insiders. Here's why Pierre Poilievre lost his seat and Mark Carney couldn't land a majority in Canada's surprising election Althia Raj Politics Headlines Newsletter Get the latest news and unmatched insights in your inbox every evening Error! Sorry, there was an error processing your request. There was a problem with the recaptcha. Please try again. Please enter a valid email address. Sign Up Yes, I'd also like to receive customized content suggestions and promotional messages from the Star. You may unsubscribe at any time. By signing up, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google privacy policy and terms of service apply. Politics Headlines Newsletter You're signed up! You'll start getting Politics Headlines in your inbox soon. Want more of the latest from us? Sign up for more at our newsletter page.
