WNBA power rankings: Are undefeated Liberty headed for Commissioner's Cup championship?

New York Times

6 hours ago

One week into the Commissioner's Cup, let's take a look at where we stand in the fifth annual WNBA tournament.
New York is in control of its own destiny to advance to the final for the third straight season. Beyond winning their first two games, the Liberty have amassed a plus-56 point differential with a game against Chicago still on the docket to further pad that stat. Matchups against the Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream remain, though, with the Fever game on the road as New York's biggest remaining obstacle. The Dream have already lost one Cup game and will need to win out, starting with a matchup against Indiana on Tuesday. The Fever could survive a loss, having won their first two games, but a three-way tie among Indiana, New York and Atlanta likely favors the Liberty due to point differential. If the Fever beat the Dream, Saturday's matchup between New York and Indiana will be a de facto play-in game.
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In the Western Conference, Minnesota is undefeated halfway through its Cup slate. The Lynx still have to travel to play the Seattle Storm and host the Las Vegas Aces, but neither opponent has come close to approaching Minnesota's quality this season. It seems unlikely that the Lynx will be tested, especially since every other West team has already suffered at least one loss. As such, a rematch of last year's championship game seems to be the most probable outcome.
A reminder that head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the Commissioner's Cup standings, followed by point differential. The team with the better record through the Cup games hosts the title game, and the winning team receives a payout of $500,000, which represents approximately one-third of the salary cap. That is a powerful incentive for teams to give it their all in the Cup.
Here's this week's rankings:
The Valkyries have had a hellacious schedule since collecting their first two wins of the season. They had a two-game set in New York against the defending champs, followed by a home game against the runner-up Lynx. They then took a quick trip to Phoenix and hosted the Aces less than 48 hours later. After four defeats, two coming in clutch time, Golden State put together its best performance of the season and earned its first blowout win in franchise history against the Aces.
This matchup was intriguing on paper because of coach Natalie Nakase's exceptional familiarity as a former assistant in Las Vegas' system, and the Valkyries' defensive effort did their coach justice. They took away the paint at all costs, crowding A'ja Wilson (who had four first-half turnovers) and forcing other Aces to beat them as Golden State took a 21-point lead into halftime. The Valkyries lead the league in limiting opponents' points in the paint, and their defensive congestion was exceptional. When Golden State is finally able to match its consistent defensive effort with average shot-making, the results are pretty inspiring for the expansion team.
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Take Mo Billings, for example. Her two blocks led to five points on run-outs, as the Valkyries had 22 fast-break points, well above their average of 12.6. Kayla Thornton, historically thought of as a defensive stopper, poured in a career-high 22 points. Per Synergy, Thornton had zero recorded isolation possessions in 2024 but started the game by attacking Jewell Loyd one-on-one for a turnaround jump shot. Thornton is on a career-best streak of seven games of double-digit scoring.
Nakase said one of the adjustments of coaching a group of mostly career role players is reminding them that when a play is called for them, they have to take the shot. There is no one else to pass the buck to. The win over Las Vegas was a lens into what the Valkyries can be when their role players step up into go-to players.
Marina Mabrey is in a new position in her WNBA career — for the first time, she is a vet and a leader for younger teammates. She has to think about getting teammates going before establishing her own offense and is trying to be more of an all-around player. The balance has been a work in progress, and entering Friday's matchup with the streaking Dream, Mabrey had made 35 percent of her field goal attempts this season.
As part of that evolution, Mabrey took it upon herself to set the tone early instead of waiting for the game to come to her against Atlanta. What transpired was an offensive outburst more reminiscent of Mabrey's potential. Even though she was mostly defended by All-Star Rhyne Howard, Mabrey repeatedly hunted her own shot, scoring at all three levels. A lot of her catches came on the move, allowing her to create extra space on her way to the cup.
'My teammates are finding me, so I appreciate them,' Mabrey said at halftime. 'Honestly, this team really wants to win. We're close, we just need to put some things together, so I feel like I have to do more for this team and be more aggressive.'
Connecticut's two wins against Indiana and Atlanta — the latter arguably the most surprising result of the season — alternated with absolute stinkers against New York (48-point loss) and Washington (37-point loss), so there is still a lot to put together. Whatever success the Sun can have is incumbent on Mabrey scoring at volume, as her two highest-scoring performances have led to victories.
Marina Mabrey 🤝 Saniya Rivers
(via @IONWNBA)pic.twitter.com/VFu0NWXAZA
— Dime (@DimeUPROXX) June 7, 2025
New York is about to lose a starter and another rotation player in Leonie Fiebich and Nyara Sabally to EuroBasket for what could be multiple weeks. It's time for the Liberty to showcase the depth of their roster to maintain their record without the German duo. Rebekah Gardner and Isabelle Harrison are the prime candidates to replace their contributions, and they gave a preview of those capabilities in New York's win over Washington on Thursday. The pair were part of a pivotal second quarter that the Liberty won by 20 points en route to an eight-point victory.
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Gardner was a good help defender and defensive rebounder when playing the three for New York. When she was tasked with defending the point of attack, she jump-started the Liberty's transition offense by leaking out for scores. Harrison added to New York's defensive versatility as a five who can switch onto the perimeter. On one possession midway through the second quarter, Harrison showed high to defend a ball screen and then tracked back to intercept a lob pass to Shakira Austin. Neither provides much individual shot creation, but Harrison attacks the offensive glass, and Gardner can knock down an open jumper when defenses collapse on the Liberty's stars.
New York doesn't necessarily need to develop more depth for its playoff rotation, which is already eight deep without Gardner and Harrison. Emerging from the regular season unscathed is an important part of getting through the postseason, and this duo can help the Liberty accomplish that goal.
May's rookie of the month is off to a strong start in June to defend that award, averaging 16 points and six rebounds while shooting 66 percent in three games. Against Indiana, Iriafen was an equal opportunity bucket-deliverer, scoring over Aliyah Boston, Natasha Howard, Brianna Turner, Damiris Dantas and even DeWanna Bonner. Against the Sun, Iriafen did more of her work before the shot, sealing deep, taking defenders off the dribble and positioning for putbacks rather than shooting from long range.
But the highlight of Iriafen's week had to be her first quarter against the Liberty, when she looked the part of a veteran instead of a rookie going up against Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. She fought for her spots inside to score and rebound, earning praise from Stewart in the process. The good times didn't last as Stewart adjusted, but she gave Iriafen some pointers on how to improve.
'She's under control, doesn't get sped up, and that's one of the biggest things as you make the jump from college to the W,' Stewart said after the game. 'I told her at the free-throw line she has to stop sticking her hand in there, 'cause I'm gonna draw that foul almost every time.'
It's the rubber match after the Fever and Dream split their first two games of the season. Atlanta is looking to rebound from its worst loss of the season, while Indiana will likely welcome back Caitlin Clark. There wasn't much separation between the teams the first time around, so it'll be interesting to see how they've evolved over the past two weeks. Beyond the Commissioner's Cup implications mentioned earlier, the Fever and the Dream could be jockeying for playoffs seeding down the road, meaning the regular-season tiebreaker could come in handy.
(Photo of Breanna Stewart: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)