Solar storms and cyberattacks can both cause blackouts. Knowing the difference could save billions of dollars

Yahoo

16-05-2025

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Space weather and cyberattacks can cause similar disruption to our civilization's indispensable technology systems. Telling one from the other swiftly and reliably can make billions of dollars' worth of difference to economies that could grind to a halt when such disruptions occur.
Shortly after noon on April 28, the whole of Europe's Iberian Peninsula plunged into darkness. An unknown incident shut down power grids serving Spain, Portugal and parts of Southern France. In an instant, the working day was over for millions of people as anything not powered by a battery suddenly turned off. Trains stopped in their tracks, stranding thousands of commuters, and internet and cellular coverage became patchy.
Weeks later, Spain is still investigating what caused the blackout of the century. A sophisticated cyberattack has been proposed as a possible explanation, but widespread blackouts could also be caused by space weather. Although no solar storm took place on the day of the Spanish blackout, experts worry that the multitude of possible explanations behind such events could delay response times and exacerbate their impacts. In fact, in a recent exercise testing space weather preparedness in the US, similarities between impacts of cyberattacks and solar storms confused participants, highlighting the need for more research into technology vulnerabilities in both cases.
"Space weather can impact systems that use IT for critical functions and everyday processes," James Spann, a senior scientist at the Office of Space Weather Observations at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) department, told Space.com in an email. "These space weather impacts can have the same symptoms as a cyberattack, where systems will be brought down, or lockup, or transmit erroneous information."
NESDIS oversaw a tabletop space weather exercise conducted in May 2024, the first such drill testing the U.S. preparedness for a major solar storm. Results of the exercise, which brought together 35 US government agencies, were published in a report in April.
In one of the simulations during the exercise, NOAA and the U.S. Air Force reported a severe solar flare and radio burst, but another federal department or agency "reported contradictory information, suggesting that the radio and communications disruptions were possibly the result of a cyberattack," according to the report. Above all, it showed the need for effective communication following such events.
In the case of cyberattacks, sophisticated malware and careful planning by computer-savvy malicious actors can disrupt the software systems that control energy infrastructure. Space weather, on the other hand, disrupts power grids by inducing powerful currents in Earth's magnetic field that can trigger surges in power lines and disable transformers.
During intense space weather events, satellite signals struggle to reach Earth through an atmosphere suddenly ionized by clouds of energetic particles arriving from the sun. These same particles can disrupt spacecraft electronics, causing signal errors and in some cases lasting damage to components. Preparation for and recovery from these two types of incidents requires completely different approaches, even though their effects can appear similar.
The space weather exercise overseen by NOAA found that inefficient communication between space weather experts and other government agencies and stakeholders likely to deal with the fallout of these incidents could lead to incorrect conclusions. Wrong conclusions, in turn, can lead to misguided decisions and improper action.
"Deep knowledge of the affected technology is needed, including its vulnerabilities to space weather impacts and cyberattacks, in order to determine the root cause," Spann said.
According to Spann, many technology systems including satellite constellations, especially commercially operated ones, are not necessarily understood well by space weather experts, and therefore the impacts of such events on these systems are difficult to predict.
To help with both preparation and mitigation, researchers and space weather experts need to closely collaborate with operators of satellites and other technologies that are potentially vulnerable to cyberattacks and space weather events, Spann said.
The report found other significant shortcomings in US space weather preparedness. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — large clouds of magnetized plasma that erupt from the sun's atmosphere — are the main cause of solar storms on Earth. These clouds can take up to three days to reach the planet. At first glance, that should provide abundant time for a timely warning.
The lack of measurements in space, however, means that scientists can only form an accurate idea of the expected impacts about half an hour before the CME hits Earth. That's because the only fixed space weather monitoring probe in Earth's orbit is located in the Lagrange Point 1 about 900 miles (1,500,000 kilometers) away from Earth toward the sun.
Space weather forecasters can occasionally use data from scientific probes observing the sun, such as the European Space Agency's (ESA) Solar Orbiter or NASA's STEREO mission. These satellites, however, are not always at the right position to provide the needed measurements.
"There are many observations that we know would improve forecasting and nowcasting of space weather that we don't have," Spann said. "We know this because we have seen the value of these observations either when we temporarily had them or from models that showed us that we could improve our forecasts and nowcasts if we had a certain type of data."
Whether NOAA will be able to invest into such new missions, however, is uncertain as the agency is facing widespread budget cuts due to decisions by the Trump administration.
The impacts of space weather on our society are increasing with our growing dependence on space technologies. In low Earth orbit — the region of space up to the altitude of 600 miles (1,000 kilometers) — satellites struggle during solar storms due to the increased atmospheric drag caused by the energetic particles from the sun. Satellites can lose significant altitude during these events, prompting emergency maneuvers to prevent them from spiraling toward Earth. Such frantic maneuvering in turn creates chaos that prevents space situational awareness experts from making correct estimates of trajectories and possible collisions.
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"In low Earth orbit, due to the growing satellite numbers, more observations are very much needed," said Spann. "Likewise, there is a need to improve forecast models to provide longer lead times with associated uncertainties."
Since the current solar cycle — the 11-year pattern in the rise and fall of solar activity — picked up strength in early 2021, at least two solar events have occurred that caused significant problems in Earth's orbit.
In 2022, SpaceX lost a batch of freshly launched Starlink satellites as the spacecraft couldn't raise their orbits using their on-board thrusters in the thickened air. In May 2024, the Gannon Solar Storm, the strongest solar storm in two decades, caused widespread chaos in low Earth orbit as thousands of satellites began to maneuver at the same time to make up for the altitude loss.