Catholicism in Africa: Next pope will inherit growth opportunity

The Herald Scotland

07-05-2025

"One thing Pope Francis did was to animate and empower young people in Africa, and today Catholicism there is driven by youth who saw in Pope Francis something you didn't often see," he said. "The church was always telling them threats and negative things. But Francis energized the people."
Recent years have seen Catholicism's geographic balance increasingly shift toward the global south. As the church's College of Cardinals convenes this week in Rome to choose Francis' successor, it's clear that Africa's role as fertile ground for Christianity will be a priority for whoever assumes the role.
"The future of the Catholic church passes through Africa," Ilo said. "The continent is a spiritual powerhouse."
The very fact that observers are considering that the next pope could be African attests to the continent's rising significance, he said. Contenders include Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea and Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of Algeria.
Africa's population growth fuels religious expansion
As of 2023, Africa accounted for 20% of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics, reflecting what the Vatican calls "a highly dynamic spread" of the faith; the continent's Catholic population that year surged to 281 million, up from 272 million in 2022.
Of those, 55 million are in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 35 million more in Nigeria. Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya also have significant Catholic populations, the Vatican said.
Meanwhile, a quarter of the world's 2.2 billion Christians live in sub-Saharan Africa, said R. Andrew Chesnut, chair of Catholic studies at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. By 2060, he said, the share is expected to be 40%.
"It's not so much about conversions," Chesnut said. "It's about fertility rates and much younger populations. The average age of African Christians is about 20. And Islam is growing even faster."
Pope Francis continued a pattern of outreach established by his predecessors, including Pope John Paul II and Pope Benedict XVI, said Paulinus Odozor, a professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.
"We have all this attention from the papacy because they consider Africans equally Christian and equally important," said Odozor, who like Ilo is a native of Nigeria. "Africa has been blessed. They are not there to evangelize but to tell people not to forget Africa."
Christianity in general is exploding in Africa, whether mainline or evangelical; the United Methodist Church, which last year experienced a schism that saw a quarter of its 30,000 congregations reassemble under the newly formed Global Methodist Church, has seen membership boom on the continent, where its adherents are more conservative.
Ilo said Nigeria now boasts the world's largest population of Episcopalians, or Anglicans, while according to Chesnut, Ethiopia now boasts the world's largest Eastern Orthodox church.
The explosion of African clergy, theologians and scholars has also had an effect, Ilo said, shaping perceptions of African Catholicism as an indigenous, cultural movement and feeding homegrown creativity. "Africans are composing their own songs so people can dance in church and sing in their native language," he said.
The church has also been creative in terms of social engagement, he said, acting as a force for good. As an example, Ilo noted Uganda's Centenary Bank, an institution founded on Catholic principles with involvement from local dioceses; among its emphases are loans for small business and social innovation projects.
Africa accounts for 18 of the 133 cardinals eligible to vote for Pope Francis' successor at this week's conclave, according to the Vatican, though one of them, John Njue of Kenya, will sit out the session due to illness.
Odozor, of Notre Dame, said it's less important for the conclave's College of Cardinals to choose an African pope that it is that they choose someone who leads by Christian example. Still, he hopes whoever is named will prioritize African representation on papal commissions.
"It's important that this person has a global understanding that his job is about everybody," he said. "Africa should not be treated in any special way, but it must be taken seriously."
Ilo said Pope Francis' progressive views weren't always received well in Africa; a majority of African bishops objected to his December 2023 declaration allowing priests to bless same-sex relationships, for instance.
"Chances are that an African pope would not be concerned with some of the things that Pope Francis was concerned with that made him popular with young people," he said. "There's no consensus in Africa today about some of these contested issues. We live in a very complex world."
Odozor said the church's growth in Africa shows broader awareness of its potential.
"Tt's not just a place where people evangelize but a place where people can contribute to the faith in various ways," he said. "There's a lot of missionary activity emanating from Africa now. Jesus gave his disciples the mandate to go out to all nations, and Africa is coming alive."