Explained: What Have The US And Israel Really Achieved In Iran?
As the dust settles over bombed-out Iranian nuclear sites and ceasefire agreements fray at the edges, Washington and Tel Aviv are left to confront a sobering reality. Even after precision strikes and months of planning, Iran's nuclear ambitions may not be dismantled, only delayed and driven further into the shadows.
Forty-eight hours after US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, he announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. But even as he spoke, missiles were being exchanged, and both sides accused each other of breaking the truce. Earlier that day, Iran fired missiles at a US airbase in Qatar after advance warning and caused no casualties.
In an off-the-cuff moment, Trump told reporters Tuesday morning, "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f**k they're doing."
What has been visibly achieved appears to be significant. A series of surgical strikes have damaged uranium enrichment and weaponisation infrastructure. "Some of the uranium metal facilities have been destroyed," said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as per The New Yorker. "That's actually a pretty good stopgap for some of the weaponisation work."
Yet these gains are, at best, partial and temporary.
Nicole Grajewski says Iran's uranium stockpile is unaccounted for, and key centrifuge parts haven't been inspected since 2021, keeping fears of a hidden nuclear programme alive.
Iran has also shown its resistance to targeted assassinations. After Israeli strikes killed top nuclear scientists, Tehran responded by building a "robust community" of nuclear experts.
The threat, therefore, has not been eradicated. It has merely been driven deeper underground.
The ceasefire remains tenuous. "In the short term, I think my primary concern is accidental escalation," says Grajewski. Whether from Iranian proxies in Iraq or errant Israeli retaliation, the potential for another spiral into open conflict remains high.
In the longer term, the conflict is more paused than resolved. "This ceasefire is not going to eradicate years of shadow war," Grajewski adds. The fundamental issues, chief among them Iran's pursuit of nuclear capability, remain unresolved.
Iran's internal political climate is also complicating matters. As the conflict erupted, Iran's parliament was advancing a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If passed, this would further curtail global oversight of Iran's nuclear ambitions and set the stage for even greater opacity.
Iran's regime, deeply bureaucratised and factionalised, is now attempting to project stability both to its domestic population and the international community. At home, the leadership aims to maintain its grip by invoking strength and sovereignty. Abroad, the missile strike on Qatar, telegraphed in advance, functioned more as a signal than an attack.
Still, Tehran's fear of regime change is palpable, even though Trump said he "didn't want" one.
Israel's strikes hit not just nuclear sites, but also parts of Iran's internal security forces, like the Basij militia. This suggests a clear attempt to weaken the regime's tools of control. If the conflict drags on, it could put serious pressure on Iran's government and threaten its hold on power.
"One problem with the discussion of Iranian regime change in the United States," warns Grajewski, "is that it's a goal within itself, but there is nothing with what happens after." Drawing on the chaos that followed American invasion of Iraq, she warned that any vacuum left behind in Iran could invite even harsher repression.
Iran's strategy of supporting groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and backing Syria's Bashar al-Assad is starting to weaken. This approach, known as "forward defence", was meant to give Iran power across the region by relying on loyal allies. Now, those efforts are bringing fewer results.
With Hezbollah weakened and Syria unstable, Iran has fewer ways to strike back. At the same time, more Iranians, especially reform-minded leaders, are asking why the government keeps spending on wars abroad while the economy and public services at home continue to fall apart.
In the end, the US-Israel campaign has managed to contain, not defeat, Iran. Nuclear sites were hit. Military leadership was shaken. But Iran's regime, and its nuclear ambition, remain intact.
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Hindustan Times
28 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
How US used its bunker-buster bombs at Iranian nuclear sites
The deep penetrating bombs that the US dropped into two Iranian nuclear facilities were designed specifically for those sites and were the result of more than 15 years of intelligence and weapons design work, the Pentagon's top leaders said Thursday. US Air Force B-2 Spirit bomber, assigned to the 509th Bomb Wing out of Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, performs a fly-over during the Speed of Sound Airshow, at Rosecrans Air National Guard Base in St. Joseph, Missouri, U.S. September 14, 2024.(Reuters) Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a press briefing that they are confident the weapons struck exactly as planned. Caine, the nation's top military officer, offered new details about the work that went into building the "bunker-buster" bombs and how the US used them to burrow into the Iranian sites. He sought to show the level of destruction but did not directly address President Donald Trump's assertion that Tehran's nuclear programme has been "obliterated." A classified briefing that pushed US work on bunker busters The bombs, called the GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, have their roots in a decades-old classified briefing "of what looked like a major construction project in the mountains of Iran," Caine said. That turned out to be the Fordo fuel enrichment plant, with construction believed to have started around 2006. It became operational in 2009, the same year Tehran publicly acknowledged its existence. The classified briefing was shown in 2009 to a Defense Threat Reduction Agency officer, who with a colleague "lived and breathed" Fordo for the next 15 years, studying the geology, construction dig, the earth moved and "every piece of equipment going in and every piece of equipment going out," Caine said. What they concluded: The US didn't have a bomb that could destroy those sites. So the Pentagon got to work, Caine said. "We had so many PhDs working on the mock programm — doing modelling and simulation — that we were quietly and in a secret way the biggest users of supercomputer hours within the United States of America," he said. How the bunker busters are designed The 30,000-pound bomb is comprised of steel, explosive and a fuse programmed to a specific detonation time. The longer the fuse, the deeper the weapon will penetrate before exploding. Over the years, the military tested and retested it hundreds of times on mock facilities, Caine said. Crews fine-tuned the bombs to detonate in the mock enrichment rooms, delaying detonation until they had reached a position to send a pressure blast through open tunnels to destroy equipment underground. How the US said it bombed an Iranian underground nuclear facility Fordo had two main ventilation routes into the underground facility — and officials carefully eyed these entry points as a way to target the site. Each route had three shafts — a main shaft and a smaller shaft on either side, which looked almost like a pitchfork in graphics provided by the Pentagon. In the days preceding the US attack, Iran placed large concrete slabs on top of both ventilation routes to try to protect them, Caine said. In response, the US crafted an attack plan where six bunker-buster bombs would be used against each ventilation route, using the main shaft as a way down into the enrichment facility. Seven B-2 stealth bombers were used, carrying two of the massive munitions apiece. The first bomb was used to eliminate the concrete slab, Caine said. The next four bombs were dropped down the main shaft and into the complex at a speed of more than 1,000 feet per second before exploding, he said. A sixth bomb was dropped as a backup, in case anything went wrong. In addition to the 12 bombs dropped on Fordo, with six on each ventilation route, two more hit Iran's main Natanz facility, Caine said. Each crew was able to confirm detonation as they saw the bombs drop from the aircraft in front of them: "We know that the trailing jets saw the first weapons function," Caine said. The pilots reported back that it was the brightest explosion they had ever seen — that it looked like daylight, he said. Questions remain about the whereabouts of Iran's highly enriched uranium Caine said the munitions were built, tested and loaded properly, guided to their intended targets and then exploded as designed. "Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed," Hegseth said. However, questions remained as to whether the highly enriched uranium that Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon was at the site at the time. Asked repeatedly, Hegseth did not say if the uranium had been destroyed or moved. "I'm not aware of any intelligence that I've reviewed that says things were not where they were supposed to be — moved or otherwise," Hegseth said.
Mint
30 minutes ago
- Mint
White House claims ‘no indication' Iran moved uranium before US strikes
The White House said on Thursday (June 26) that American intelligence had been monitoring Iran's nuclear facilities 'for weeks' before launching airstrikes that destroyed the country's uranium enrichment infrastructure. But a few reports suggest Iran may have succeeded in moving substantial quantities of near weapons-grade uranium to secret sites before the attack. 'We were watching these sites very closely,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. 'There was no indication that Iran moved its enriched uranium out of the facilities before Operation Midnight Hammer.' She described the strikes as 'one of the most secretive and successful operations in United States history.' Leavitt pointed out that the operation remained hidden from the media until bombs began falling. 'I think many of you in this room would agree with that because none of you knew in this room about the strike on Saturday until it took place,' she said. She emphasised President Donald Trump's goal of avoiding a prolonged military confrontation. 'He does not want the United States to be dragged into these conflicts again,' she said. 'He's not afraid to use strength if he has to, but the president has already proven he can put America first and deliver on peace.' Leavitt and Hegseth fielded questions about the durability of the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. 'I think the fact that the president was able to successfully negotiate a ceasefire when nobody thought that was possible… it was a surprise to everyone in this room,' Leavitt said. 'It was a surprise to the world, but the president got it done because he wants to see peace.' US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaking earlier in the day said at Pentagon news conference he had seen no evidence Iran moved nuclear material in advance. 'I'm not aware of any intelligence that I've reviewed that says things were not where they were supposed to be, moved or otherwise,' Hegseth said. 'The cars and small trucks at the site were those of concrete workers trying to cover up the top of the shafts. Nothing was taken out of [the] facility,' Trump wrote. However, there is a different picture. Satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies on the days leading up to the strikes showed a long line of vehicles at the entrance to the deeply buried Fordow site. Analysts said the images pointed to a 'coordinated transfer operation.' A senior Iranian source told Reuters that 'most of the near weapons-grade 60% highly enriched uranium had been moved to an undisclosed location before the U.S. attack.' Two Israeli officials, cited by The New York Times, said intelligence reports indicated Iran removed roughly 400 kilograms—about 880 pounds—of uranium enriched to 60% purity in recent days. That level is just below the 90% threshold used for nuclear weapons. US bombers used more than a dozen 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs to hit Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan early Sunday local time (June 21), in what Hegseth described as 'historically successful strikes.' The full extent of the damage and Iran's remaining nuclear capacity remains under review.
The Print
an hour ago
- The Print
Maharashtra govt floats tender for fact check unit to track ‘malicious, inaccurate' content
Brijesh Singh, principal secretary, DGIPR, told ThePrint: 'Every day, we treat media reports as feedback on governance. During his previous tenure, Chief Minister Fadnavis made our approach clear: 'either the media is right, or we are right. If they are right, we need to take note. If they are wrong, we should inform them of factual inaccuracies'. This unit serves exactly that purpose.' The unit will be set up under the state government's Directorate General of Information and Public Relations (DGIPR), and will use technological interventions to speedily screen all information concerning the state government and check its credibility across languages for any supposedly malicious or inaccurate content. Mumbai: The Devendra Fadnavis-led Mahayuti government in Maharashtra has floated a tender to set up a fact-check unit to track all content about the state government across traditional media as well as social and digital media platforms. 'It is not intended to have any chilling effect (on the public) or create the fears some people are expressing,' he added. Government departments routinely identify any alleged discrepancies in media reports and send rejoinders as and when required. Singh said the fact-check unit will make this exercise more thorough and faster, bringing in technological interventions. 'We lack the capability to handle the current volume of misinformation, and it requires significant technical capabilities. When altered photos claim a bridge has collapsed, or old images are used out of context, we need to respond promptly and accurately, pointing out, for instance, that an image is from 2016. This requires forensic capabilities, making technical expertise essential,' Singh said. According to the tender, which ThePrint has seen, the fact-check unit will have a dashboard that would offer detailed reports and alerts on any 'misinformation, disinformation and malinformation' detected. The dashboard, the tender states, should help government officials to quickly review the content that has been flagged, understand the scope of the issue and respond in a timely manner. The agency chosen to set up the unit will also conduct training sessions and workshops for officials from the DGIPR and other government departments on how to use the dashboard, and view and analyse reports. Also Read: Trump dismisses as 'fake news' CNN report saying US strikes didn't destroy Iranian nuclear sites 'Fact-check unit proposal legally vetted' The Bombay High Court had in September last year declared a 2023 amendment in the Centre's Information Technology Rules, as part of which the government planned to fact-check social media content, as 'unconstitutional'. The amended rules were to restrain social media 'intermediaries' from publishing content about the government which its own fact-check unit identified as fake. Multiple petitions from organisations such as the Editors Guild of India, News Broadcasters and Digital Association, Association of Indian Magazines as well as comedian Kunal Kamra had challenged the amendment, saying the rules infringe upon freedom of speech and expression. In a 2023 letter, the Editors Guild of India had said: 'While admittedly there is a problem of misinformation and fake news, especially in the online space, efforts to check such content have to be by independent bodies that are not under the sole purview of the government, lest they become tools to clamp down on voices of dissent.' In December last year, the Centre filed a special leave petition against the high court's decision in the Supreme Court. It is, however, yet to be admitted. According to Singh, however, the Maharashtra government has got the proposal for the DGIPR's fact-check unit legally vetted and it will not be in contravention of the court's orders. 'The central fact-check unit was ruled unconstitutional by courts in an earlier decision because it required platforms to take down content based on the unit's report. Our approach is fundamentally different: it is not binding. The state government lacks such enforcement powers. Since that ruling, PIB (Press Information Bureau) has continued fact-checking, as have many other states,' Singh said. What the tender says According to the tender document, the fact-checking unit is expected to track social and digital media platforms, websites, online news aggregators and blogs for the state government to identify and respond to 'instances of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation being published' in a timely manner. 'If someone posts false information—say, claiming a statue has been desecrated somewhere—the government has a responsibility to respond with accurate information. Our primary objectives are serving public interest and increasing transparency and trust,' Singh told ThePrint. The unit will be expected to validate and assess the credibility of content not just in English, but also in Hinglish (an informal blend of Hindi and English) as well as regional languages such as Hindi, Marathi, Kannada, Gujarati, Tamil, Telugu, Urdu, Malayalam, Punjabi and Bengali. The tender document states the agency setting up the fact-check unit should also provide a solution to conduct predictive analytics so that the government can identify potential outbreaks of alleged misinformation based on historical patterns and social media activity. 'Using AI, it must forecast which topics are likely to be misrepresented, manipulated, or misused, allowing government agencies to respond proactively and mitigate potential damage,' it says. Further, the agency selected to set up the fact-check unit will enable sorting the allegedly malicious content into categories based on why it is malicious—whether it is inflammatory, insulting, obscene, profane or adverse. It will be required to detect deepfakes as well as content using code language with a 'harmful intent without explicit terminology'. The agency's solution will also classify accounts allegedly using media manipulation tactics to gain social media traction, posts that make derogatory remarks about someone based on their identity, and content by entities lacking credibility or verifiable accuracy, among other things, the tender document states. (Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui) Also Read: India's Chief of Information War during Op Sindoor night was fact-checker Mohammed Zubair
