
Indian manufacturing growth eases to 3-month low in May, PMI shows
BENGALURU, June 2 (Reuters) - India's manufacturing growth slowed to a three-month low in May as demand softened amid price pressures and geopolitical tensions but job creation hit a record high, a survey showed on Monday.
Solid manufacturing growth has helped India's economy outperform its major peers. Asia's third-largest economy grew 7.4% last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest expansion since early 2024 and much quicker than a Reuters poll median estimate of 6.7%.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (INPMI=ECI), opens new tab, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 57.6 in May from 58.2 in April, lower than a preliminary estimate of 58.3, but still well above the 50.0 level that separates growth from contraction.
"India's May manufacturing PMI signalled another month of robust growth in the sector, although the rate of expansion in output and new orders eased from the previous month," said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
The expansion in new orders - a key gauge of demand - eased to a three-month low but remained historically strong, supported by healthy domestic consumption and international sales.
Output growth decelerated to its weakest pace since February, though manufacturers maintained positive sentiment about the year ahead.
Job creation was one major bright spot, with manufacturers increasing hiring at the fastest pace in the survey's history, with permanent positions being created more frequently than temporary roles.
"The acceleration in employment growth to a new peak is certainly a positive development," Bhandari said.
Cost pressures intensified during May, with input price inflation climbing to a six-month high.
Manufacturers passed these costs on to customers, with output price inflation among the highest in over 11 years.
Growing price pressures could complicate monetary policy decisions for the Reserve Bank of India, which has already cut its key repo rate by a cumulative 50 basis points this year as overall inflation remains below the RBI's 4.0% target.
The central bank is expected to cut interest rates on June 6 for a third consecutive meeting and once more in August, a Reuters poll showed last week.
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Reuters
25 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trading Day: Market inflection points abound
ORLANDO, Florida, June 3 (Reuters) - By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Stocks and the dollar rose solidly on Tuesday even though markets lacked a central, driving force - signs of weakening economic activity, cooling labor markets and disinflation are all reasons for caution, but risk appetite continues to be fueled by hopes that U.S.-China trade tensions will soon ease. In my column today I look at why foreign investors' exposure to U.S. assets may not be as high as feared. If it's not, the potential downside for Wall Street and Treasuries from diversification may be less severe. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Market inflection points abound Evidence is mounting that global economic activity is slowing, but this is failing to move the dial much for markets. Investors know growth is slowing and that the second half of the year will be challenging, so that's already 'in the price'. Hopes of a de-escalation in the trade standoff between the U.S. and China, and for bilateral deals between the U.S. and other key trading partners soon are supporting risk assets. The S&P 500 hit a three-month high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq and MSCI World index climbed to levels last visited in February. It is the strength on Wall Street, most latterly tech, that is lifting global stocks as benchmark Asian and European indices are flatlining. On the whole, policymakers continue to stress that they are data-dependent and will move on rates carefully and calmly. That was the message from various Fed officials this week and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday. It's a slightly different - although no less challenging - situation in mainland Europe, where figures on Tuesday showed disinflationary forces are driving consumer prices as much as anything else. Euro zone inflation dipped below the European Central Bank's 2% target in May, cementing expectations rates will be cut this week and later this year. Meanwhile, Switzerland experienced outright year-on-year deflation for the first time in four years, raising the possibility that the Swiss National Bank may soon reintroduce negative interest rates. Canada's central bank is expected to hold interest rates at 2.75% on Wednesday for a second meeting. Growth and inflation have been surprisingly sticky this year, and rates have been slashed by 225 basis points since last June. As UBS analysts note, markets are generally at an inflection point, waiting for the catalyst that will break them out of the narrow ranges that have broadly held since the U.S. and China announced a temporary reduction on tariffs on May 12. Even Wall Street and the dollar - one creeping higher, the other drifting lower - are awaiting a trigger for a proper breakout. Could the telephone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected later this week be it? Foreign exposure to U.S. assets may be lower than feared It is widely believed that investors around the world have a disproportionately high exposure to U.S. assets, particularly stocks, an imbalance that could roil U.S. markets if corrected. But what if these fears are overblown? Several eye-popping statistics suggest that America's weight in world financial markets is even greater than its outsized economic might. Most strikingly, the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP), or foreign investors' holdings of U.S. assets less U.S. investors' holdings of overseas assets, at the end of 2024 was $26 trillion. That's nearly 24% of global GDP, up from 16% only two years earlier, a surge driven by foreigners' insatiable appetite for U.S. equities, mainly "Big Tech". Demand was so hot that, by some measures, the value of U.S.-listed stocks at the turn of the year represented 74% of total global market cap. That share was 60% six years ago, and less than half in 2011. But the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets is now being questioned, as the often erratic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have upset longstanding economic and geopolitical norms, making governments and investors question whether Washington is still a reliable partner on the global stage. The concern is that this eroding confidence triggers a reversal of the massive flows into Wall Street seen in recent years that has damaging spillover effects. Such a correction may not require outright selling. Given the scale of the flows involved, just less buying among foreign investors could be enough to cast a shadow over the world's most important stock market. And the running assumption is foreign investors don't have the capacity or willingness to increase their exposure to U.S. assets, creating a significant long-term downside risk for Wall Street, Treasuries and the dollar. "A structural shift is underway: the slow erosion of US economic dominance," analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. But looked at another way, foreign exposure to U.S. assets may not be as high as initially meets the eye. That's the view of analysts at JP Morgan, who measure portfolio investment in U.S. bonds and equities as a share of countries' total household sector financial assets. They use a broad definition for a country's "household" sector, covering investments by institutions like insurance companies and pension funds that are ultimately made on behalf of households. Using a broad range of data, from central banks, U.S. Treasury and OECD household financial asset flows, they measure the ratio of U.S. equity and bond holdings relative to household financial assets in each country. They find that "relative to the total financial assets of households in the rest of the world, the allocations to U.S. assets typically stand at around 10-20%." As a result, they are "skeptical of the idea that foreign investors hold too much of U.S. assets." Given that U.S. equities account for more than 70% of the MSCI global market cap and dollar-denominated bonds represent around 50% of global bond indices, according to JP Morgan estimates, the 10-20% exposure of foreign investors to U.S. assets does appear surprisingly low. And the 10-20% figure would be even lower were it not for the outsized U.S. equity holdings at the Swiss National Bank and Norway's sovereign wealth fund. On the bond side, foreigners' footprint in the U.S. Treasury market is shrinking. Data shows that they owned 31% of the $28.55 trillion outstanding Treasury debt at the end of last year. That share has been declining steadily since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2008, the figure was approaching 60%. Overseas investors' share of the T-bill market has shrunk even more. In December, it was under 20%, near its lowest level on record and sharply down from 50% a decade before. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his team at JP Morgan aren't arguing investors will or should ramp up their purchases of U.S. assets. And in cases where allocations are high - such as the Taiwanese exposure to U.S. bonds or Canadians' holdings of U.S. stocks - diversification would hardly be a surprise. But there is "little indication" of broad-based selling of U.S. assets by foreign investors so far this year, they note. And if that selling does materialize, it may be far lighter than many expect. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.


The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Liberal Lee Jae Myung wins South Korea election and promises unity after turmoil
Liberal opposition candidate Lee Jae Myung was elected president of South Korea on Tuesday, promising to unite the country six months after it was shaken by a surprise attempt to impose martial law. With a clear lead in the 85 per cent of votes counted so far, he told supporters he would also find a way for the country to coexist with North Korea through dialogue and communication. His conservative rival, Kim Moon Soo of the People Power Party (PPP), conceded the race. Lee's victory stands to usher in a political sea change in Asia's fourth-largest economy, after the backlash against the martial law episode brought down conservative Yoon Suk Yeol. Nearly 80 per cent of South Korea's 44.39 million eligible voters cast their ballots, the highest turnout for a presidential election in the country since 1997, with Lee terming the polls 'judgment day' against Yoon's actions and the PPP's failure to distance itself from that decision. A joint exit poll by broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS, which has in previous elections mostly been in line with the final results, put Lee on 51.7 per cent and Kim on 39.3 per cent. The martial law decree and the six months of ensuing turmoil, which saw three different acting presidents and multiple criminal insurrection trials for Yoon and several top officials, marked a stunning political self-destruction for Yoon and effectively handed the presidency to Lee. Yoon was impeached by the Lee-led parliament, then removed from office by a constitutional court less than three years into his five-year term. 'I was here on 3 December after martial law was declared and 14 December when Yoon was impeached,' said Choi Mi Jeong, 55, a science teacher who gathered outside parliament to hear Lee speak after the election. 'Now Lee Jae Myung is becoming president. I hope he will become a leader who supports ordinary people, not vested interests, not a small number of riches.' Official results were expected to be certified by the National Election Commission on Wednesday morning after ballots are sorted and counted by machine, then triple-checked by election officials by hand to verify accuracy. The winner must tackle challenges including a society deeply scarred by divisions made more obvious since the attempt at military rule, and an export-heavy economy reeling from unpredictable protectionist moves by the United States, a major trading partner and a security ally. Lee is expected to be more conciliatory towards China and North Korea, but has pledged to continue the Yoon-era engagement with Japan. There were no female candidates running in Tuesday's election for the first time in 18 years. Despite polls showing wide gaps between young men and women, gender equality was not among the key policy issues put forward during this election, a stark contrast from the 2022 vote. 'One thing I am a bit frustrated about with mainstream candidates whether Lee Jae Myung or other conservative candidates is they lack policy on women or minority groups,' said Kwon Seo Hyun, 18, a student.


Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
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