Where and when severe storms are possible in Minnesota on Monday

Yahoo

3 days ago

Where and when severe storms are possible in Minnesota on Monday originally appeared on Bring Me The News.
Storms could pack a punch Monday afternoon in Minnesota, though how far east the storms stay strong or severe is the wild card.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, the best chance for severe storms is in southwestern Minnesota. However, storms reaching severe criteria are possible anywhere from the Canadian border all the way down to the borders with South Dakota and Iowa.
The eastward extend of the severe threat appears to shut off by the time the storms reach places like the Twin Cities and locations south and east.
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"The best environment for today's development will be pinned along the eastern border of the Dakotas and Minnesota," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Ciites, adding that "the chances of severe storms in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin is nearly null."
Here's what the Storm Prediction Center is saying:
"Strong heating is expected ahead of this front, bringing temperatures into the upper 80s/low 90s from central MN into central NE. These temperatures coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s will foster airmass destabilization, and thunderstorm development is expected as the cold front and large-scale forcing for ascent interacts with this destabilized airmass.
Initial thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon across MN where the strongest low-level convergence will be in place. Dewpoints (and overall buoyancy) will be lower here than areas farther southwest, which is expected to limit overall storm strength and contribute to an anafrontal storm character."
What is anafrontal? An anafront is a rainy cold front delivering moisture and clouds. And unlike a normal cold front, precipitation can form and allow for rain to continue behind the leading edge of storms.
The best instability and energy for severe storms Monday afternoon will be in southwestern Minnesota. You can see how limited the CAPE (convective available potential energy) is near the Twin Cities by 4 p.m.
Below is a good look at how the HRRR model sees things developing Monday-Tuesday. It begins with storms from the Dakotas intensifying in western/central Minnesota, followed by more development to the southwest.
This could all happen by 2-3 p.m. The rain then continues, making for a wet Tuesday in the Twin Cities and Rochester.
This story was originally reported by Bring Me The News on Jun 2, 2025, where it first appeared.