Severe storm risk for the central U.S. through Memorial Day weekend

Washington Post

23-05-2025

Any pause in storminess after the weeklong barrage that ended Wednesday is short-lived, as severe weather and flood threats increase into Memorial Day weekend across a big chunk of the south-central United States.
Severe storm risks will pepper the Southern Plains and occasionally surrounding areas through and beyond the holiday.
Of bigger concern may be heavy rain spanning the Southern Plains to the Ozarks. With anticipated precipitation surpassing 6 inches in the heart of the area, flooding may emerge and become a sizable threat over the weekend. There's already a moderate (Level 3 of 4) flood risk on Sunday for locations including Tulsa, Oklahoma; Fort Smith, Arkansas; and Springfield and Joplin, Missouri, where a flood watch is also in effect.
This round of agitated weather started to come to life on Thursday, when numerous thunderstorms struck Oklahoma and Texas. A dozen reports of hail of 2 inches or more in diameter have been logged, largely in a region near and just south of the Red River. Hail as large as baseballs was observed in some instances.
With thunderstorms on the docket day after day, there's no near end in sight to the wandering areas of heavy and potentially flooding rainfall.
Although the U.S. weather pattern is currently dominated by a dip in the jet stream over the eastern portion of the country — often not supportive of severe weather in the central states — several disturbances riding the jet stream will concurrently move into the Southwest before cruising eastward into next week.
Closing in on summer, there's plenty of deep moisture within the warm sector for thunderstorm and heavy rain development. A slow-moving front locked in between jet stream dips will in this case enhance the bevy of weather worries.
Storms on Friday should begin in the central high Plains of northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas and portions of Nebraska. After dropping large hail and perhaps a tornado into evening, individual supercells or clusters should increasingly congeal and shift southeast across Kansas and into northeast Oklahoma, with primarily a wind damage risk at night.
Saturday may feature a higher concentration of severe weather, potentially in and around Oklahoma City. A band from northwest Texas to southeast Missouri runs the risk of large hail, some probably bigger than tennis balls. In central Oklahoma, extreme instability (storm fuel) and a bit of a low-pressure area nearby may help spin up a couple tornadoes.
By Sunday, the severe weather focus probably won't have shifted much. While a threat exists across Oklahoma once again, the best odds for large hail and tornadoes may shift westward to the Texas panhandle and border region with western Oklahoma.
With the frontal zone sinking southward a bit on Memorial Day, the main severe weather zone may end up in central and north Texas, where abundant moisture will remain.
As much as 7 inches of rain is in the forecast from the National Weather Service over the next few days near where Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas mingle. Some higher totals are a risk where storms are particularly persistent.
With the heaviest rain focused near the front on the northern end of moisture, plus little movement in the weather pattern over coming days, a slight (Level 2 out of 4) flood threat has been hoisted for the region Friday and Saturday.
Friday's storms develop in the central plains and drift southeast, running into deep moisture, and potentially dropping 3-plus inches through Friday night. By Saturday, repeated rounds of rainfall may increase the flood threat, but for now it remains a slight (Level 2 out of 4).
The risk rises to a moderate (Level 3 out of 4) on Sunday.
Widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected for the Southern Plains to Tennessee Valley as one of the waves riding the jet stream passes by. Likely falling on saturated soils from prior days, a zone of 2- to 4-plus inches of rain is forecast around where the states mentioned above meet.
By Memorial Day, the frontal zone that is a conduit for the heavy rain shifts further south and east, moving a lower-end flooding potential into a Texarkana-to-Chattanooga corridor.
Overall, the focus of the heaviest rain should dip southward for a time next week. While that may keep places like Texas in line for frequent storms, it might also give regions like the Ozarks a breather after this next round.
But it also seems likely that additional storminess will sweep across the southern Plains in particular after Memorial Day.
The Climate Prediction Center calls for above average precipitation to continue in New Mexico, Texas and portions of the surrounding region for the next two weeks.