Trump's surprising new approach to Israel

Vox

15-05-2025

is a senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. He is the author of the 2018 book, Invisible Countries: Journeys to the Edge of Nationhood , an exploration of border conflicts, unrecognized countries, and changes to the world map.
What's the opposite of a 'bear hug'?
That was the phrase often used to describe President Joe Biden's approach to Israel since the October 7, 2023 attacks: publicly and enthusiastically backing Israel, particularly when it comes to its wider regional conflict with Iran and its proxies, while quietly trying to restrain Israel's actions in Gaza.
Now President Donald Trump is traveling through the Middle East this week for a multi-country tour and dealmaking bonanza that pointedly does not include a stop in Israel. (Trump has denied the snub, saying his trip is 'very good for Israel.')
The trip is the latest example of how Trump's approach to the country often seems like a mirror image of his predecessor's: he has little interest in restraining or pressuring Israel on its war in Gaza, but perhaps even less interest in supporting Israel on wider regional issues or aligning the two countries' approach to the region.
Today, Explained
Understand the world with a daily explainer plus the most compelling stories of the day, compiled by news editor Sean Collins. Email (required)
Sign Up
By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
This is still an administration that is fiercely 'pro-Israel' in rhetoric and in its willingness to punish Israel's critics in America. But in practice, as he conducts his foreign policy, Trump seems remarkably unconcerned about what Israel has to say about it.
'The one message that's consistent [from Trump] is 'I have plans for the region. You're welcome to be a partner, but if you prefer to be ignored, go ahead,'' said Nimrod Novik, former foreign policy adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres.
This is not the Trump Israel was expecting
When Trump was reelected last November, the response from the Israeli government was near rapturous. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had an often fraught relationship with Biden's administration, praised Trump for 'history's greatest comeback' and predicted a 'powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.'
It's not hard to figure out why Netanyahu was so optimistic. During his first term, Trump, who often describes himself as the most pro-Israel president in history, took a number of precedent-smashing steps to demonstrate that support, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, which is not considered the country's capital by most of the international community, and recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the disputed Golan Heights.
His first term included the Abraham Accords — a series of deals, mediated by the United States, normalizing relations between Israel and a number of Arab countries — as well as the scrapping of President Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal, loathed by Netanyahu's government. Even by the standards of the US-Israel relationship, Trump's approach stood out for its unconditional support.
There were early indications that the second term would bring more of the same. For his ambassador to Israel, Trump picked Mike Huckabee, a Christian Zionist whose views on Israeli-Palestinian issues would put him on the far right even in Israeli politics. One of Trump's most notable domestic initiatives so far has been a widespread crackdown on universities and activists over last year's anti-Israel protests. Nor has his White House engaged in much Biden-style soul-searching about Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza: Trump quickly lifted the limited restrictions on arms exports to Israel and sanctions on violent West Bank settlers that Biden had put in place. His suggestion that Gaza be 'cleaned out' of its Palestinian inhabitants to make room for a resort was received ecstatically by the Israeli far right.
But when it comes to the Middle East, writ large, it's been a different story.
Trump seems remarkably unconcerned about appearing to be on the same page as the Israelis in his approach to the region, and has repeatedly negotiated directly with Israel's main adversaries while cutting Israel out entirely.
In early March, Axios reported that Trump's envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, had been negotiating with Hamas over the release of American hostages — without coordinating with Israel, and breaking a longstanding precedent of the US refraining from direct talks with the terrorist group.
The news created a firestorm of controversy and Boehler was removed from the talks, but just this week, Hamas agreed to release the last surviving American hostage, Edan Alexander. The negotiations that led to the release, led by Trump's all-purpose foreign envoy Steve Witkoff, reportedly came after Hamas reached out via an 'Arab Americans for Trump' group. Israel learned about the talks not from the White House, but from its own intelligence services.
It was not the only surprise Netanyahu has gotten recently. During an Oval Office meeting with the prime minister last month, Trump dropped the surprise announcement that he was dispatching Witkoff and other negotiators to begin direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program.
Netanyahu, who learned of the talks only after arriving in Washington, DC, has pushed the US to insist on a complete dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program. But officials including the secretary of state and vice president have suggested they might be open to Iran maintaining some type of civilian nuclear program — effectively returning to a similar framework to the one Trump tore up in 2018.
And while Israel welcomed Trump's decision in March to step up the US air campaign against the Houthis, the Yemeni militant group that has been firing missiles and drones at Israel as well as ships traveling through the Red Sea since the start of the Gaza war, Trump abruptly announced an end to the bombing earlier this month. He said he had received assurances from the Houthis that they would refrain from attacking US ships. (The rate at which the campaign was burning through American money and munitions also probably played a role.) Trump's announcement made no mention of Israel, even though the Houthis had attacked Tel Aviv's airport days earlier. The message was unmistakable: Israel could deal with the Houthis on their own.
All in all, the Trump administration has been in direct talks with three of Israel's main adversaries — Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis — to cut deals without Israel's input, a nearly unprecedented situation according to longtime observers of relations between the two countries.
'I don't think there's an administration, Democrat or Republican, that has even come close to undertaking the sort independent outreach that the Trump administration has now contrived over the course of the last three months,' said Aaron David Miller, a veteran Mideast peace negotiator who served in several US administrations.
A changing GOP meets a changing Middle East
What explains the new frostiness in the US-Israel relationship? One answer may be that Trump is simply growing frustrated with Netanyahu. If there's one consistent theme in Trump's worldview, it's skepticism about allies that, as he sees it, take more from America than they give. During his Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu, Trump brushed aside a suggestion that he should lift tariffs on Israel, saying 'We give Israel $4 billion a year. That's a lot. Congratulations, by the way.'
Some Trump critics in the US have been crediting him for his approach to the relationship. The New York Times' Thomas Friedman praised the president for realizing that 'Netanyahu is not our friend,' while former Bernie Sanders foreign policy adviser Matt Duss credited him with handling 'Netanyahu more effectively than alleged foreign policy expert Joe Biden did.'
Netanyahu himself is probably not the only factor here. The second Trump term has also seen the rise in influence of the so-called 'restrainer' wing of Republican foreign policy, who want to reduce America's military footprint abroad, especially in the Middle East, at the expense of traditional hawks.
While not uniformly anti-Israel (though some outside Trump allies like Tucker Carlson would probably qualify), the restrainers are much less inclined to think that US and Israeli interests are aligned. Vice President JD Vance, for instance, has stated that while Israel has a right to defend itself, he doesn't believe the US should be drawn into a war with Iran.
Trump's speech in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, which included pointed shots at 'neocons' and 'nation builders,' may have been an indication of which faction is winning the battle for influence. And according to reporting by the Washington Post, former national security adviser Mike Waltz, one of Trump's most traditionally hawkish advisers, was fired in early May in part because of Trump's anger that Waltz had been in communication with the Israeli government about using military force against Iran.
This is also not the same Middle East that Trump dealt with last time around. Israel isn't the only longstanding US ally getting snubbed on Trump's trip; previous presidents might have been expected to make a stop in Egypt or Jordan. But Trump is making a beeline for the Gulf, home of lucrative arms and computer chip deals, not to mention golf resorts and free 747s.
During Trump's first term, the Saudis and Emiratis were more or less aligned with the US and Israel on wider regional security matters — namely, the perceived danger posed by Iran. This was the context that made the Emiratis' recognition of Israel in the Abraham Accords possible.
This time, when Trump sits down with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE's Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, he's likely to hear a different story. The Saudis and Iranians have reached a detente, and both Gulf countries have tried to extricate themselves from the long and brutal conflict with the Houthis in Yemen. Both now support a deal with Iran that would avoid war, and both supported an end to the US campaign against the Houthis.
They're also increasingly frustrated with Israel's war in Gaza and the anger it has provoked throughout the region, including in their own populations. The scenes coming out of Gaza have raised the costs of appearing to be aligned with Israel.
'Both MBS and MBZ have his respect. He listens to them,' said Novik, now a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, of the Saudi and Emirati leaders. 'They believe that what happens in Gaza doesn't stay in Gaza. It's destabilizing the region, and that's bad for business.'
All indications are that Trump is these days more interested in what he calls the 'gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi' than the winding streets of Jerusalem.
A case in point: both the first Trump administration and the Biden team sought a major regional deal that would tie US nuclear or security cooperation with Saudi Arabia to Saudi recognition of Israel.
Though Trump is still calling for the Saudis — who have never recognized the Jewish state — to normalize relations, his team has reportedly dropped it as a demand for US-Saudi nuclear cooperation. If this comes to pass, it would effectively be giving up on what would be the crown jewel of the Abraham Accords process.
A hands-off stance on Gaza
All this is a dramatic shift, but it's certainly not the change that critics of Biden's support for Israel were hoping for.
Trump has iced out the Israelis on regional diplomacy just as Israel is considering a plan for an 'intensive escalation' of its military operations in Gaza. This could include the destruction of most of the enclave's remaining buildings and and would give civilians a choice between moving to a tiny 'humanitarian area' or leaving — though it's not clear what countries would be willing to accept them if they did.
Related Americans have tuned out Gaza at the worst possible moment
Trump and his senior officials have not spoken out publicly about the plan and, according to Axios' reporting, have 'effectively given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit.'
Israeli officials say the operation will begin if there is no ceasefire and hostage deal by the end of Trump's visit to the region this week, though there are few indications that Trump is actively involved in pushing for one. It seems unlikely that Trump would employ pressure tactics that Biden was unwilling to use, such as conditioning military aid or addressing the Israeli public directly about the war.