Did Alabama, Miami and other bubble teams improve enough to make the Playoff in 2025?

New York Times

09-05-2025

The College Football Playoff selection process sparked widespread debate about who should've made the first 12-team field last December. There's no need to rehash it here. Each of those programs that were on the outside looking in had chances they failed to capitalize on.
The offseason offered those programs an opportunity: Upgrade your roster enough to get over the hump and reach the Playoff in 2025. So, what have teams like Alabama, Miami and Ole Miss done to take the next step this fall? Let's break down their offseasons.
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2024 record: 9-4
Final CFP rank: No. 11
The Crimson Tide couldn't overtake SMU for the final Playoff spot, making them the first team out after they regressed in their first season without Nick Saban. Throw in the ReliaQuest Bowl upset by Michigan, and they lost four games under new coach Kalen DeBoer.
Were there a couple of weeks when Alabama's defense had issues? Yes, namely the second half against Georgia and the shocking upset loss to Vanderbilt. But the Crimson Tide had a top-10 defense in yards per play allowed (4.72) and scoring (17.4 points).
Though Alabama lost key players like linebacker Jihaad Campbell and safety Malachi Moore, it added depth in the defensive front and secondary through the transfer portal with the arrivals of linebackers Kelby Collins (Florida) and Nikhai Hill-Green (Colorado) and cornerback Cam Calhoun (Utah).
The offense faltered in some untimely situations, most obviously in a disastrous performance in a 24-3 loss at Oklahoma. The losses to Tennessee and Michigan weren't any better. Alabama finished 22nd in yards per play (6.33) and scoring (33.8), but the offense was inconsistent. Opponents recorded 77 tackles for loss against the Crimson Tide, who ranked 97th nationally in TFLs allowed. They committed 21 turnovers as well, which also ranked 97th. That's a lot of negative plays.
Jalen Milroe was an exciting quarterback with tantalizing highs but ugly lows. With Milroe off to the NFL, the Crimson Tide need more consistency at quarterback. Ty Simpson, last year's backup, has the lead in a three-man race for the job.
DeBoer brought Ryan Grubb, his longtime offensive coordinator, to Tuscaloosa, which should benefit the offense. Alabama also added Miami transfer Isaiah Horton (56 catches for 616 yards and five touchdowns in 2024) to a receiving corps that already features star sophomore Ryan Williams and veteran Germie Bernard.
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The Crimson Tide added three transfers at tight end, where they were low on bodies, and two along the offensive line, headlined by Texas A&M transfer Kam Dewberry.
For Alabama to succeed and reach the Playoff with a first-year starting quarterback, it needs to make the situation around him as ideal as it can be. That's what the Crimson Tide's staff is trying to accomplish.
2024 record: 10-3
Final CFP rank: No. 13
The Hurricanes won 10 games for just the second time in the past 20 years, had an explosive offense that led the nation in scoring (43.9 points) and produced the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft in quarterback Cam Ward … and yet 2024 still felt like a disappointment.
Miami's defense was a mess, finishing 69th in scoring (25.3 points) and allowing 61 plays of 20-plus yards (94th nationally). That defensive performance was bad enough for Miami to miss the College Football Playoff, as a 42-38 loss at Syracuse in the final weekend of the regular season sealed the deal by knocking the Hurricanes out of the ACC title game.
Often praised for his recruiting, coach Mario Cristobal has elevated Miami, which signed top-10 classes in the 2023 and 2024 recruiting cycles. But the Hurricanes don't play to that talent level on defense, which is on the coaching staff. Cristobal hired Minnesota defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who led a top-10 scoring defense (16.9 points) that finished 12th in yards per play allowed (4.76) in 2024. Miami gave up at least 30 points in six of its 13 games last season. Iowa was the only team that scored 30 points on Minnesota last year.
Miami made a concerted effort to retool its secondary by bringing in six transfers there, headlined by Xavier Lucas from Wisconsin and, most recently, Houston/Auburn transfer Keionte Scott.
But Miami has holes to fill on offense, too. In addition to Ward, the Hurricanes lost their top four wideouts (Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George, Isaiah Horton and Sam Brown) and tight end Elijah Arroyo.
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Most notably, there was the high-profile addition of Georgia's Carson Beck, the top available quarterback in the portal, to replace Ward. Miami also landed several transfers at receiver: CJ Daniels (LSU/Liberty), Keelan Marion (BYU) and Tony Johnson (Cincinnati).
Beck didn't throw in the spring while recovering from an elbow injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game. He'll have to develop chemistry with a new set of receivers and acclimate to a new offense quickly — and get more help from the revamped defense than Ward did — for Miami to win the ACC for the first time and earn a Playoff spot.
2024 record: 10-3
Final CFP rank: No. 14
The Rebels went all in on the transfer portal last offseason and primed themselves for a Playoff push. Despite its high ceiling — as shown by an 18-point win against Georgia — Ole Miss lost a head-scratcher to a bad Kentucky squad and suffered a letdown loss at Florida in late November.
The all-in push fizzled without a Playoff appearance. Now, the Rebels have to rebuild the roster and have added 20-plus transfers.
Last offseason, Ole Miss let running back Quinshon Judkins walk, and he transferred to Ohio State. It hurt the run game and exposed a running back room that didn't have a true ace behind an offensive line that struggled.
The Rebels allowed 78 tackles for loss last season, which ranked 98th. They couldn't generate push on the ground, and the rushing attack faltered in the Kentucky loss before the line surrendered four sacks in the setback to Florida. Five new transfer offensive linemen have joined the program, led by Arkansas' Patrick Kutas.
The running backs will have to be better, too. Logan Diggs will have a bigger role, but Missouri transfer Kewan Lacy should factor in as well, as could Troy transfer Damien Taylor, who rushed for 1,010 yards in 2024. Ole Miss also signed Shekai Mills-Knight, a top-150 recruit at running back.
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The Rebels lost Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins to the NFL, so receiver has been a priority with five transfers there, headlined by Oklahoma State's De'Zhaun Stribling, who posted 882 yards and six touchdowns last year. Harrison Wallace III posted 720 receiving yards and four touchdown receptions at Penn State and will join the group, too.
Austin Simmons will be a first-time starter at quarterback and is tasked with replacing Jaxson Dart. Ferris State quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, a Division II transfer, and Oklahoma State's Maealiuaki Smith have been brought in to build depth there.
The defense ranked second in scoring (14.4 points) but lost some talent, particularly up front. So the Rebels added edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and defensive lineman Da'Shawn Womack (LSU). Marshall transfer Jaden Yates was the Sun Belt's leading tackler last season and is a new face at linebacker.
The secondary needed more bodies, and Ole Miss brought in seven transfers, with a few having SEC experience, like LSU safety Sage Ryan and Arkansas corner Jaylon Braxton.
Under Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are one of the few programs to rely so heavily on the portal but find stability doing so. That's a credit to Kiffin, but it's difficult to grasp what Ole Miss could be at this time of year. It will need new faces to jell quickly to break through the Playoff ceiling.
2024 record: 11-2
Final CFP rank: No. 17
The Cougars were poised to be a Playoff team until a two-week stretch in November that included losses to Kansas and Arizona State. That was enough to send BYU into a four-way tiebreaker atop the Big 12 standings, and it came out on the short end of that, as Arizona State and Iowa State played in the conference title game.
With starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff back alongside leading rusher LJ Martin and leading receiver Chase Roberts, the Cougars have to finish stronger this season.
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BYU has taken a hit at receiver with the loss of No. 2 wideout Darius Roberts and the transfer of Keelan Marion, who posted 914 all-purpose yards and two kick return touchdowns. Stanford transfer Tiger Bachmeier could help the receiving corps, and Utah transfer Carsen Ryan has the potential to be a solid receiving option at tight end.
The Cougars will have to retool the offensive line, as well. Michigan transfer Andrew Gentry figures to slide in at one of the tackle spots.
BYU had one of the better defenses in the country, finishing in the top 25 in scoring and yards per play allowed. But the Cougars suffered personnel losses at every level of the defense. Utah transfer Keanu Tanuvasa is a 300-pounder who provides more size along the interior defensive line. The Cougars lost linebacker Harrison Taggart, who was the No. 2 tackler, to the portal but should be able to withstand his departure thanks to the return of talented linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Jack Kelly.
There are some holes to fill at corner, but the Cougars are relying on in-house development there.
It's shaping up to be another crowded, competitive Big 12 title race. BYU is banking on a combination of developing returning players and strategic portal additions to rise to the top.
2024 record: 11-3
Final CFP rank: No. 24
The Rebels came up short of the Playoff after losing the Mountain West title game to Boise State, and they're in a much different position than the other teams in this group because they're starting over with new head coach Dan Mullen, who is replacing Barry Odom. Odom enjoyed two successful seasons at UNLV but left for Purdue.
As with any coaching transition, there was a ton of roster turnover with many contributors, like left tackle Jalen St. John and linebacker Mani Powell, who followed Odom to Purdue. There were also impact losses like Jacob De Jesus, the No. 2 receiver on the team in 2024, to Cal and standout safety Jalen Catalon to Missouri.
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The headline addition for UNLV in the portal was Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea, a boom-or-bust player in two seasons with the Cavaliers. Mullen has always done well with quarterbacks, and he has bet on athleticism with Colandrea and Michigan transfer Alex Orji, a runner who is still raw as a passer.
Like other Group of 5 programs, UNLV has to take fliers on players who were once big-name recruits and are looking for a second or sometimes third opportunity. If you've followed recruiting closely over the past few years, there are familiar names among the Rebels' transfer haul. Former five-stars such as linebacker Justin Flowe and cornerback Denver Harris have joined the program and are on their third and fourth programs, respectively. TCU transfer receiver JoJo Earle and Texas State defensive line transfer Tunmise Adeleye were top-50 recruits in the Class of 2021. They're also on their third and fourth programs.
Mullen is taking a chance on recruiting pedigree. Can that formula sustain UNLV's success and position it for a potential Playoff bid?
(Top photos of Kalen DeBoer and Mario Cristobal: Kevin C. Cox, Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)