The daunting F1 reality: McLaren are getting faster, not slower

Telegraph

2 days ago

There is no doubt that Red Bull would have had high hopes that the flexi-wing regulation change introduced for the Spanish Grand Prix would negate some of McLaren's healthy advantage. Unfortunately for them, and any other team who would have hoped for a shake-up of the order at the top, there was none of that.
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a varied track with a range of corners. The teams know it very well through testing over the years. If you have a quick car there, you are quick at most tracks. We already knew the McLaren was quick at plenty of circuits, but their performance at the Spanish Grand Prix underlines that the regulation change has made no difference to their lead at the top of the order.
McLaren holding back despite one-two
In qualifying, the gap from the fastest McLaren to the next-fastest car was around 0.4 per cent, the biggest advantage the team have possessed since the Australian Grand Prix, when it was 0.5 per cent. Yes, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and George Russell were within a 10th of a second of each other, but Norris had another very scruffy lap in Q3, which explains that somewhat.
In the race on Sunday the long-run advantage was clearly there as they took another one-two finish, their third of the season and their seventh double podium. I feel that both Oscar Piastri and Norris were holding something back, though, which suggests they could have won even more comfortably. Piastri kept the lead at the start and then was in clean air and out of DRS range almost immediately. From that point, there was no reason for him to push much harder. Likewise to a certain extent for Norris, who probably knew that second was as good as he could manage.
Looking at the drivers' championship, the gap from Piastri to Verstappen, in third, is now 49 points after the Dutchman's penalty for crashing into Russell. Norris, in second, is 39 points ahead of Verstappen. You have to say that it will take the McLaren drivers to start crashing into each other for Verstappen to be in with a chance of a fifth championship.
You can never say never, though, as we are only nine rounds into a 24-race season. Yet I simply do not see McLaren tripping up from here and, in reality, they should secure their first drivers' championship since 2008. In their 'bad' weekends they still take home a good haul of points – in the two races they have not won, they have finished second and third. As quick as Verstappen has been, he showed last weekend that if you get hot under the collar you can throw away a lot of points. Sometimes you just have to accept where you are – for the foreseeable future Verstappen will still have to work with an inferior car.
Despite the regulation change, the top four teams have pretty much stayed exactly where they were, though it is difficult to judge fully after just one race. Given the flexi-wing change was announced several months ago, the teams would have been hard at work for a while, producing front wings that comply. In Imola, they would have run 90 per cent of what they would have used at Barcelona with the front wings. This was not a light-switch moment for any team. It probably cost each of them £500,000 to develop the new parts, but has been an invisible difference to the punter.
Williams the big losers, Sauber the winners
That is not to say the change has made no difference at all. Certainly, Williams struggled uncharacteristically this weekend when they have been strong in almost every other round. Indeed, this is only the second time they have not scored points all season and comes after four double-point finishes in a row. Further down, Sauber improved enough to take fifth place with Nico Hulkenberg, though they started from a low base and also brought new parts for this weekend.
Although the order has not changed that much, the technical directive may have helped some teams become more consistent in how their car is operating. These cars are always on the move, gaining or losing speed depending on the corner speed and, with that, the ride height is constantly changing because of the fluctuation of the loads on the car.
A less flexible front wing means you can more quickly get to a set-up that does not need to cater for as many changes and also slows you to optimise the performance of the car. In short: it is easier for them to focus on the set-up changes that make the car better and more consistent over a whole lap, and not just one particular sector or one type of corner.
Sadly for McLaren's rivals, the MCL39 was again quick in every sector in Spain. It is hard to see that changing between now and the end of the season.