China faces a tough balancing act with India and Pakistan
India and Pakistan have agreed a
truce after trading accusations over cross-border strikes and civilian casualties, but the risk of resumed escalation looms, with consequences extending far beyond the subcontinent.
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Although US President Donald Trump is claiming credit for the ceasefire in this volatile theatre of conflict, China's restrained and nuanced diplomacy reflects a strategic calculus rooted in regional stability, economic imperatives and global power dynamics. While the
Chinese public cheers for Pakistan's tactical gains, Beijing prioritises de-escalation over opportunism, recognising that a prolonged conflict threatens South Asia's and China's geopolitical and economic interests.
The immediate danger lies in a historically rooted collision between the two nuclear-armed rivals. The latest military exchange included artillery fire and air strikes.
Pakistan said it downed five Indian warplanes, including three advanced French-made Rafale fighter jets, with its Chinese-made J-10C fighters. If the account is accurate, it underscores the regional race for military modernisation, with China's J-10C fighters and PL-15 missiles representing Pakistan's growing capabilities.
Yet the patriotic fervour on Chinese social media belies a solemn recognition that unchecked escalation risks catastrophic miscalculation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has urged 'calm and restraint' and avoidance of further complications, reflecting Beijing's awareness that its own security along the border with India depends on containing neighbouring conflict.
The ceasefire does not address a quieter, brewing crisis: India's April 23
suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, which relies on the Indus river system for about 80 per cent of its agriculture. While India cannot actually cut off the flow of waters from the Western rivers, the Chenab, the Jhelum and the Indus main stem, it can stop sharing hydrological data and flood warnings. Such 'hydrological warfare' transcends traditional conflict, in that it potentially puts a civilian population at risk, and risks destabilising the region.
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China's balancing act is further complicated by its multifaceted relationship with India. Despite historical tensions, New Delhi and Beijing share pragmatic common ground. Both are Brics members, while India's alignment with China on Russia's war with Ukraine and the recent Sino-Indian border de-escalation highlight a partnership forged despite the US' efforts to drive a wedge between the world's two most populous nations.
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