Putin and Xi's meeting marks the start of a dangerous new world order
Xi Jinping's arrival in Moscow, to commemorate Russia's VE day, on May 9, (a day after Europe, the UK and the US), wasn't just a formality. It was a very public and deliberate show of support from Russia's closest ally.
We already know that China is a critical part of the 'axis of totalitarian states', made up of China, North Korea, Russia and Iran. The countries in this group, prompted by China, have delivered a great deal of support to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. This includes a significant number of drones from Iran in the early stages of the war, and now weapons and ammunition from North Korea.
It was China that helped arrange the rapprochement between North Korea and Russia, opening the door to huge levels of military support. It is worth remembering that, at that time, Russia was in some difficulty and had begun running low on artillery ammunition and other weaponry.
Perhaps the best example of this support is the estimated delivery of over five million artillery shells from North Korea, not to mention the thousands of North Korean soldiers now engaged in fighting alongside Russian troops in the Kursk region.
During a recent visit to Ukraine, the Ukrainian military revealed to me that these North Korean troops have proven to be more effective than existing Russian troops.
But we should cast our minds back to the Winter Olympics in China in 2022. On February 4 2022, Putin flew in, clearly to discuss the coming invasion with Xi. Just 20 days later, Putin's forces invaded Ukraine. What is absolutely clear is that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine without Xi's agreement.
On March 22 2023, at a previous meeting, president Xi gave Putin the strongest level of support when he said: 'Change is coming that hasn't happened in 100 years. And we are driving this change together.' This visit of Xi now re-emphasises this strong alliance between them.
After all, the alliance isn't just words, as China now buys a huge proportion of Russia's oil and gas; and in return it supports Russia at the UN. This purchase of Russia's oil and gas has increased dramatically in the year following the invasion. China has also encouraged a network of other nations to do the same.
When Russia invaded Ukraine, the West not only froze Russian assets but also cut off Russian financial institutions access from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), the backbone of global financial transactions.
In response, China immediately stepped in and facilitated financial transactions through its own system, Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS). This intervention alone saved Russia from a cash flow crisis.
What should not be forgotten is that China has its own territorial ambitions in Taiwan. China's support for Russia is also because what happens in Ukraine will have a bearing on what happens in Taiwan. Xi is watching carefully to see how strong the West's resolve is over Ukraine, as this will give him a strong indication of how the US and other elements of the Nato alliance might respond if and when Taiwan is blockaded or invaded.
So far, what China has seen from the West has significantly emboldened its position over Taiwan. Since the beginning of this conflict, it has become clear that Europe first and foremost was unprepared for any kind of conflict and unable to support Ukraine as they should have done.
Even under president Biden, the US was unable to make its mind up whether it wanted Ukraine to win or just not to lose. This was evidenced by the early refusals to supply F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and in restrictions on Ukraine's use of US missiles to target sites within Russia.
Whilst we all want peace, any deal that trades away significant Ukrainian territory would be manna from heaven for president Xi. As Xi got off the plane in Moscow, he must be smiling to himself as he watches the divisions in the West and contemplates the beginning of a new world order.
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