Pahalgam attack and the gathering of war clouds over South Asia
There have been incipient signs of late that all is not quiet on the western front, as India and Pakistan marked the anniversary of the ceasefire understanding of February 25, 2021 on the Line of Control (LoC) and other parts of the international border. True, the ceasefire never really meant any fundamental shift in Pakistan's state policy of sponsoring and waging a proxy war against India. Delhi, nonetheless, has been a stakeholder in the ceasefire agreement for as long as possible, even as its focus was on the Line of Actual Control with China. Pakistan, too, had its hands full, faced with a looming default crisis, internal security issues, and the deepening political instability that followed the overthrow of the Imran Khan government, which was masterminded by the military.
At any rate, the first major breach of the ceasefire agreement came on April 1, when Pakistan Army intruded into Indian territory and opened fire along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir's Poonch district and our troops "responded effectively in a controlled and calibrated manner" while reaffirming commitment to the ceasefire agreement. That was a deliberate attempt to undermine the remarkable stability that was achieved in the Kashmir zone since 2019 after the abrogation of Article 370 and reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir.
The surge in terrorist activities has been "an issue of concern" for some time, to quote army chief General Manoj Pande. The south of the Pir Panjal range, which connects Kashmir Valley with Rajouri and Poonch via Mughal Road, has historically been a hotbed of militancy between 1997 and 2003. Hilly features, tough terrain, dense foliage and the prevalence of natural caves on Pir Panjal (where the army's footprint is lighter) make the region an attractive sanctuary for terrorists to carry out surprise attacks.
Intelligence gathering is a big challenge, as the terrorists, mostly foreigners, avoid making contact with civilians and stick to guerrilla tactics, making it difficult for security forces to gather information about their movement. Possibly, the deployment of troops out of the region to Ladakh following the tensions with China emboldened the terrorists to move in. The hill station of Gulmarg lies in the Pir Panjal range.
That said, there is also the 'big picture' to be weighed in. The incursion on April 1 in Poonch sector, which was indeed a grave provocation by the Pakistani military, came in the downstream of the US administration's green-lighting of the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a key plotter of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, to India. It was on February 13, during a joint press conference with PM Narendra Modi, that President Donald Trump personally announced Rana's extradition to India. Can it be a coincidence that the terrorist strike on Pahalgam on April 22 coincided with the visit by Vice President J D Vance to India?
It must be a matter of exceptional concern to the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi that Delhi's policy of 'zero tolerance' toward terrorism is getting unprecedented support today under the stewardship of the FBI by Kash Patel and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Pakistan has put on a brave face and washed its hands of Rana, a Canadian citizen. But things are not as simple as that once he begins to narrate how the terror ecosystem operates in Pakistan under the direct supervision of the military leadership. These are early days.
Although the extradition treaty of 1997 stipulates India must ensure that Rana will not be tortured, will be provided adequate protection in prison, and will only be tried for the offences for which he has been extradited—limiting India's legal options—the fact remains that he has been under US detention for the past 16 years alongside David Headley.
A second aspect of immense relevance here collaterally is the belligerent outburst, out of the blue, by Pakistan's army chief General Asim Munir on April 17 during a diaspora event in Islamabad. At the meeting that was attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, senior ministers and Pakistani elites living abroad, Munir described Kashmir as Pakistan's 'jugular vein' and exhorted overseas Pakistanis to pass on the country's story to their children, emphasising their forefathers believed that Hindus and Muslims were different in every aspect of life. Can it be a coincidence that Munir's inflammatory rhetoric came against the backdrop of the current dissonance within India over the Waqf (Amendment) Act 2025, which is putting the spotlight on properties donated by Indian Muslims over centuries?
Third, it is both symbolic and consequential that the Kashmir issue figured in the talks between the foreign secretaries of Pakistan and Bangladesh in Dhaka on April 18, marking the resumption of such consultation after 15 years. According to the readout in Islamabad, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch took the initiative to brief the Bangladeshi side 'on the situation in India's illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, emphasising the need for an early resolution of the dispute in accordance with UN Security Council resolutions and the aspirations of the Kashmiri people'.
Pakistan's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister, Muhammad Ishaq Dar, is due to visit Dhaka shortly. All indications are that a highly motivated axis is shaping up in the geopolitics of the region hostile towards India for the first time since the creation of Bangladesh. Interestingly, the Pakistani readout messaged that 'a shared commitment to a forward-looking partnership emerged' during the talks.
To be sure, the horrific event in Pahalgam will prompt an appropriate response. The Cabinet Committee on Security on Wednesday summarily expelled the military officials posted in the Pakistani embassy. That is the irreducible minimum under the circumstances, considering the precedents from yesteryears. Munir himself was director-general of ISI during the Pulwama terror attack and subsequent Balakot military crisis in February 2019. His incendiary remarks on April 17 can only be seen as a clarion call for 'jihad' in the valley.
Delhi should stop Munir in his tracks, no matter his frustrations—be it his failure to banish Imran Khan from domestic politics, crush dissent within the Pakistani military over his leadership, or earn 'peace dividends' from Afghanistan. A range of options must be available with the government.
(
MK Bhadrakumar
is a former diplomat.)
(Views are personal)
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
India seeks exemption from US' 10% baseline tariff
The fate of the 10% baseline tariffs that the Trump administration invoked on imports from all countries on April 2 is among the issues now at the heart of negotiations between New Delhi and Washington as they attempt to hammer out an early tranche of the trade deal, people aware of the matter have said. Delhi is not in favour of replicating, as suggested by the American negotiators, the approach in the trade deal struck between the US and the UK, where British goods are still subject to the baseline tariffs, these people added. According to a person with direct knowledge of the discussions, Indian negotiators are pushing for their American counterparts to remove the baseline 10% rate as well as commit to assurances that the additional 16%, due to be implemented on July 9, will be left off. An American negotiating team led by assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch 4 landed in Delhi on June for what is the fifth time negotiators from either side have gone to the other's capital for face-to-face talks. The American delegation is expected to be in Delhi till June 10, longer than the previously expected two-day visit. ALSO READ | India-US trade negotiations hit top gear, American delegation extends Delhi stay 'Ideally, both the 10% baseline tariff on Indian goods and the additional 16% from July 9 must end simultaneously after an interim deal is signed. Else, India will also have rights to continue proportionately similar tariffs on American goods till the time the US withdraws the entire 26% reciprocal tariff,' one of them said, citing a joint statement by the two countries' leaders issued on February 13 in Washington. While expounding 'Mission-500' to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 on February 13, the two leaders – Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump – in their joint statement mentioned the need for new 'fair-trade terms' that are 'mutually beneficial', the person said. A second person aware of the matter corroborated India's stance: 'Only a mutually beneficial deal would have a long life'. 'Both India and the US are sovereigns. One is the oldest democracy and the other is the largest democracy. While the US is the largest economy, India is the fastest growing major economy of the world. Hence, the deal must be balanced, equitable, fair and acceptable to their people,' the first person said. The second person added that India sees trade interests between both nations as being 'complementary and not competitive', hence New Delhi is open to giving greater market access to the American goods in the Indian market provided Washington reciprocates. 'The trade negotiations continue in New Delhi covering all these matters in a constructive manner as we speak and both sides are hopeful for a win-win,' he said. ALSO READ | Donald Trump claims India willing to cut 100% tariffs on US goods, 'but…' After UK industries faced American tariffs of 25% on all aluminium, steel and derivatives (announced on March 12), 25% tariff on passenger vehicles (announced on April 3), 25% tariff on automobile parts (beginning May 3), and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports (from April 5) – the UK and the US on May 8 announced an economic prosperity deal (EPD). The mini deal secured some concessions for the UK, but the 10% baseline tariff continued. Both partners are racing to conclude an interim, or regarded as an 'early harvest', deal before July 9, which will be followed by a wider first tranche of Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by September-October 2025. After that a comprehensive BTA will be negotiated, they said. ALSO READ | How Donald Trump decided the tariff for India The current negotiations for an early harvest deal involve greater market access for goods by eliminating tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, and improving supply chain integration, they said. The current New Delhi round is followed by a face-to-face negotiation between the two teams in the US. During that period, Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal was also in the US from May 17-22 where he held meetings with his counterparts, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Jamieson Greer.
Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
No tolerance for terror, allies must understand, says India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and external affairs minister S Jaishankar reiterated India's 'zero tolerance' policy for terrorism and the need for decisive international action against terror and those who support it during meetings with British foreign secretary David Lammy on Saturday. Modi said India valued Britain's backing for the fight against cross-border terrorism while Jaishankar said India's partners should understand the 'zero tolerance' policy for terrorism as the country will never accept the perpetrators of terrorism being treated at par with victims. The remarks by the top Indian leadership, made against the backdrop of several countries hyphenating India and Pakistan during last month's military clashes, reiterated to the world community New Delhi's new approach to fighting cross-border terrorism backed by Islamabad. Britain's foreign office had said before Lammy's meeting with Indian interlocutors that he would address how the current peace between India and Pakistan can be supported for regional stability. ALSO READ | UK expresses support for India's fight against cross-border terrorism Modi said in a social media post after meeting Lammy that he values 'UK's support for India's fight against cross-border terrorism'. He also appreciated Lammy's 'substantive contribution to the remarkable progress in our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, further strengthened by the recently concluded FTA'. A statement from the external affairs ministry said Modi had 'underscored the need for a decisive international action against terrorism and those who support it' - an apparent reference to Pakistan. The two leaders discussed regional and global issues and Lammy 'strongly condemned the Pahalgam terror attack and expressed support for India's fight against cross-border terrorism', the statement said. Modi also expressed satisfaction at the conclusion of the free trade agreement (FTA) and the double contribution convention and expressed satisfaction at the deepening of the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership. He welcomed continued collaboration under the Technology Security Initiative (TSI), especially its potential to 'shape trusted and secure innovation ecosystems'. Modi also reiterated his invitation to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to visit India. ALSO READ | Terrorism no proxy war, but planned one: Modi Lammy arrived in New Delhi on Saturday morning for meetings to review the bilateral partnership, especially trade and strategic ties, a month after India and the UK finalised the FTA. Lammy had visited Pakistan shortly after New Delhi and Islamabad reached an understanding on halting military actions on May 10. In his opening remarks at the meeting with Lammy, Jaishankar thanked the UK government for the strong condemnation of the 'barbaric terrorist attack' in Pahalgam and its support to India in the fight against terror. 'We practice a policy of zero tolerance against terrorism and expect our partners to understand it, and we will never countenance perpetrators of evil being put at par with its victims,' he said. Lammy responded by referring to the 'horrific terrorist attack' and said Prime Minister Starmer had asked him to convey the 'deep condolences of the UK and a hand of friendship with India and support as we deal with the terrorism threat in a comprehensive manner'. Jaishankar described the finalisation of the FTA and double contribution convention as a milestone that will boost two-way trade and investment and have a 'positive effect on other strategic aspects' of bilateral relations, besides strengthening supply and value chains. ALSO READ | 'New normal': Shashi Tharoor on India's approach towards terrorism with Operation Sindoor He also referred to other significant initiatives that have seen progress, such as the TSI for deeper collaboration in strategic sectors such as AI, semiconductors, telecom, quantum computing, health technology, critical minerals and advanced materials. The TSI, coordinated by the national security advisers of India and the UK, was launched during Lammy's last visit to New Delhi in July 2024. 'We have also launched the Strategic Exports and Technology Cooperation Dialogue, the first meeting of which was held…this week. This will enhance, among others, the TSI's effectiveness in promoting trade in critical and emerging technologies, including the resolution of relevant licencing or regulatory issues,' Jaishankar said. The India-UK infrastructure financial bridge can unlock quality long-term capital flows from Britain to India and contribute to infrastructure development, and there is also good collaboration in the education sector with many UK universities planning to establish campuses in India, he said. Lammy described the finalisation of the FTA as Britain winning a 'trophy' and the beginning of a new era in bilateral ties since it is expected to increase will trade by £25.5 billion. He also conveyed the UK's interest in enhancing cooperation in key sectors such as trade, investment, defence and security, technology, innovation and clean energy. Lammy also met commerce minister Piyush Goyal and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. A readout from Britain's foreign office said bolstering economic and migration ties and delivering growth opportunities for British businesses topped the agenda for Lammy's visit. Lammy also focused on the migration partnership, including 'work on safeguarding citizens and securing borders in both countries'. The readout added, 'Addressing migration remains a top priority for the government - the Foreign Secretary is focused on working internationally with global partners to secure the UK's borders at home.' Lammy's visit would also prepare the grounds for a visit by Starmer to India for the formal signing of the FTA. Both countries are currently involved in the legal scrubbing of the FTA, a process expected to be completed in three months. During 2023-24, India was the UK's second largest source of investments in terms of number of projects for the fifth consecutive year. India was the UK's 11th largest trading partner in 2024, accounting for 2.4% of total British trade, and two-way trade in goods and services was worth nearly $57 billion in 2024. The FTA is expected to increase bilateral trade by $34 billion a year from 2040. Within a decade of the deal being implemented, 85% of British products will become tariff-free in India. Indian tariffs on alcohol will be cut from 150% to 75%, falling to 40% by the 10th year of the deal. India will also cut automotive tariffs from more than 100% to 10%. The UK too has agreed to cut its tariffs and 99% of India's exports to Britain will face no duties.
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
LOP's desperation over Congress losses on display: BJP
NEW DELHI: Top BJP functionaries including party president J P Nadda and Dharmendra Pradhan on Saturday reacted vehemently to Congress member Rahul Gandhi's latest claim questioning the Maharashtra assembly polls, saying that the leader of opposition in Lok Sabha was reflecting his desperation after his party's losses and the looming one in Bihar assembly polls. "Rahul Gandhi's latest article is a blueprint for manufacturing fake narratives, owing to his sadness and desperation of losing election after election," said Nadda in response to Gandhi's article which appeared in a national daily on Saturday. Citing factors that "doomed" Congress in recent polls, Nadda said Congress gets defeated election after election due to his (Rahul Gandhi's) antics. "Instead of introspecting, he cooks up bizarre conspiracies and cries rigging. Ignores all facts and data. Defames institutions with zero proof and hopes for headlines over facts," the BJP president said in a post on X. Nadda said despite being exposed time and again, Rahul shamelessly keeps peddling lies. "And, he is doing this because a defeat in Bihar is certain," he said adding that democracy doesn't need drama but truth. Pradhan said Rahul Gandhi's post on Maharashtra elections is nothing more than a predictable script-lose elections, discredit institutions, fabricate conspiracies, and portray himself as a victim of an imaginary system. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 신차장기렌트 첫달 렌트료 전액지원해드립니다. 신차장기렌트센터 더 알아보기 Undo "But India's democracy is far stronger than the insecurities of a dynast who refuses to accept repeated electoral verdicts," Pradhan, a prominent OBC face of BJP, said. He said it there's any rigging Rahul should be worried about, it's the kind his own party mastered for decades-from Emergency to misusing Article 356 over 90 times to dismiss opposition govts. "Let's not forget, this is the same Rahul Gandhi who falsely claimed in Cambridge that Indian democracy is 'dead', yet participates in elections, campaigns freely, and blames EVMs only when he loses," the senior BJP functionary said.
