How will Keir Starmer's insulting U-turns play with Scottish voters?
Probably not.
Just a month back, Anas Sarwar's party was the bookies' favourite in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election on June 5, prompted by the tragic death of former SNP minister Christina McKelvie. But a week ago Ladbrokes was offering 8/13 on an SNP victory with Labour second and Reform UK third.
Then came Keir Starmer's Winter Fuel Payment U-turn at last week's Prime Minister's Questions. It was creaking, grudging and conditional, promising only to look at reversing cuts for some but not all pensioners in the autumn. There was no apology. No plausible explanation of the volte-face. But it happened.
So, have voting intentions changed again in this volatile seat? There's been no fresh polling evidence, but Starmer's U-turn seems to have been drowned out by more local developments.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (left) and candidate Davy Russell (Image: Gordon Terris) Labour's candidate Davy Russell got an endorsement from Sir Alex Ferguson, but that was rapidly eclipsed by a weird photocall at a Larkhall go-karting centre where the candidate and Sarwar were pictured holding hands in separate go-karts they were not actually driving.
As The Times wryly noted: 'Spin doctors doubtless had good grounds for fearing a 'Labour by-election crash' headline. But the alternative was hardly more appealing: 'Labour, going nowhere'.'
That strange media launch followed Russell's surly refusal to join an STV debate with rival candidates on the grounds he'd 'rather be out chapping doors'.
STV's political editor Colin Mackay observed that the broadcast was scheduled for 10.40pm and 'if he is chapping doors [at that time], he's likely to get chased'.
Russell's no-show at another No Cuts Lanarkshire husting this week (along with Reform's Ross Lambie) prompted the Tory candidate to pull out. And heavily edited social media posts appear to confirm that Russell has no gift of the gab.
How much of this filters through to voters? It's hard to say.
READ MORE: By-election hustings chaos as Tory candidate walks out over Labour no-show
But a party sometimes finds itself swimming against a powerful incoming political tide.
The SNP faced one during the Rutherglen and Hamilton West Westminster by-election in October 2023, when Nicola Sturgeon's resignation as party leader hung over proceedings along with the Operation Branchform arrest, and the bad-tempered leadership contest.
The outgoing former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier had been suspended from the Commons for breaching Covid restrictions, prompting Scotland's first recall petition which was signed by almost 15% of a seriously scunnered electorate. And, of course back in 2023, Labour were a bright-eyed and bushy-tailed opposition party promising big change.
The night of his victory, Labour MP Michael Shanks was ecstatic, along with Scottish Labour heavyweights who had pretty well camped out in the constituency for months. They saw it as a bellwether seat – an indicator of victory in the forthcoming General Election. And they were not wrong.
Labour retained the seat in Rishi Sunak's snap election last July when SNP numbers were whittled down from 48 to just nine MPs and Shanks quickly became an energy minister, touting the hard-to-spot GB Energy headquarters in Aberdeen as evidence of Labour's commitment to Scotland.
Labour Energy Minister Michael ShanksLabour's honeymoon didn't last long thanks to the jaw-dropping Winter Fuel Payment betrayal, but amazingly it still looked set to win the accompanying Scottish Parliament seat, Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
But the earth-shaking English local elections seem to have changed everything here even though no Scottish council was involved. Why? Because Starmer suddenly looks like a loser who's put the UK on track to elect a right-wing demagogue who plans Trump 2.0 for Britain if he's elected in 2029.
For many progressive Scots this is unthinkable. And it's happened on Labour's watch.
Even if Reform's local victories have been oversold by a hysterical pro-Brexit press, those papers won't let up and that omnisceptic right-wing press will stoke the Farage electoral machine till they get their man over the line.
So, since Labour was (weirdly) ahead in Hamilton despite the Winter Fuel Payment cuts, their reversal is hardly likely to be game-changing. Au contraire.
READ MORE: John Curtice gives his verdict as Hamilton by-election looms
Starmer's explanation for the Winter Fuel Payment u-turn is laughable and simply draws attention to the bad faith of the original decision, the automaton-like nature of the Labour leadership and the Chancellor's austerity-inducing insistence that her precious fiscal rules matter above all else.
That policy has now clearly failed. But in the absence of an alternative, it still stalks the Commons like a zombie mantra. Why should Scottish voters back the same party – all at sixes and sevens–- in a Scottish Parliamentary election?
Even if Starmer's Westminster Winter Fuel Payment U-turn impressed a few Hamilton voters, it won't get processed in time to help pensioners this winter. Six months, it seems are not enough to turn the creaking leviathan of the British state around. By contrast, the SNP's Scottish substitute payment – a means-tested alternative, providing some cash to all pensioners in Scotland – should be ready to roll by November.
Compare and contrast.
And Labour's welfare whoopsadaisy doesn't end with the Winter Fuel Payment payment.
Starmer has apparently told Cabinet ministers he now wants to scrap the two-child benefits cap.
'It's the best and most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty. The alternatives cost more and are less effective,' one anonymous minister said. For crying in a bucket.
Everyone and their aunty has been screaming this at Starmer for the best part of a year and he's paid absolutely no attention. To hear this trite unapologetic statement of the bleedin' obvious now is worse than insulting.
So, Holyrood and the SNP will likely get the credit for defending the vulnerable against a hard-faced Labour Westminster government forever badged as benefit snatchers just as Thatcher was forever badged a milk snatcher for ending free school milk. This kind of meanness sticks.
And there's more.
Labour MPs are now threatening to rebel over Labour's intention to cut disability benefits.
How on earth can those cuts go ahead after U-turns on Winter Fuel Payment and the two-child cap? If they do go ahead it will be blatant persecution of the disabled.
If they don't, Rachel Reeves's sacred fiscal rules are stone deid? Heads the SNP win, tails Labour lose.
No part of its 'cruel to be kind' stance has lasted a single year. It makes Labour look rudderless, pointless and weak. And leaves the SNP looking pretty strong. After plenty of unforced policy errors, it looks like the SNP were as instinctively right on the Winter Fuel Payment and two-child benefit cap as Labour were instinctively wrong. And that doesn't get changed by a shabby, eleventh-hour U-turn.
And what about Labour's sudden realisation that Israel's prime minister Netanyahu IS actually committing genocide in Gaza (maybe) – something the SNP's Stephen Flynn urged the Commons to recognise last February.
READ MORE: Row erupts on BBC Debate Night over 'racist' Reform UK ad
Once again, the SNP was instinctively right about something it has taken Labour one year and a horrific catalogue of deaths to (almost) accept. While continuing to rubberstamp weapons exports to Israel at three times the rate of the Tories, of course.
I'd be amazed if stuttering, partial policy reversals help Labour win the Hamilton by-election next Thursday. But if they don't win that battle, might Scottish Labour yet win the war – the Scottish Parliament elections next May?
As the last month demonstrates, party fortunes can change dramatically – but that's especially true for Scottish Labour whose fortunes north of the border are umbilically linked to personalities and policy decisions south of it.
Turnout next week may be low, the SNP may struggle to inspire after two decades in power and a viable independence strategy looks as far off as ever.
But with Reform snapping at Starmer's heels and the Tories out for the count, there's never been a better time for the SNP to push boldly forward.
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