Exclusive poll: Most voters back Iran strikes, but worry about attacks on U.S.

Axios

4 hours ago

The U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities Saturday have left American voters with contradictory feelings, a new poll finds:
A majority favored limited strikes, but nearly as many said they were worried about a widening war and Iran retaliating on U.S. soil.
Meanwhile, most viewed the U.S. attacks as a success — and are likely to back similar military action as a result.
Why it matters: The survey sheds light on Americans' nuanced views of war and rapidly evolving foreign policy.
Republicans overwhelmingly approved of bombing Iran; sizable majorities of Democrats and independents did not.
But once they were told the bombings only targeted Iran's uranium enrichment for its nuclear program, support increased in each group.
The big picture:"When voters understand the strategic rationale behind the strikes, support increases," said pollster Ryan Tyson, head of the Tyson Group, which conducted the survey. It recently worked for Elon Musk's political committee when it supported President Trump's re-election.
The broad support for military action that the survey found among Republicans and self-identified MAGA voters suggested that the divisions within Trump's base over Iran were more talk than reality.
The poll also measured Trump's job performance, finding that 46% of Americans approve and 51% disapprove.
Voters are deadlocked on his handling of foreign policy, but he's underwater by double digits when it comes to handling inflation.
More concerns for Trump: There's persistent worry in the U.S. electorate about blowback from the bombings and the contagion of war.
75% of voters think that despite the Israel-Iran ceasefire, the conflict could escalate into a wider war.
46% think some sort of Iranian attack on U.S. soil is now likely.
And 45% believe the strikes didn't make the U.S. safer, while just 36% said they did.
The good news for Trump: By 50-33, voters would support airstrikes similar to those launched Saturday, a sign they see it as a success and a manageable risk. Two-thirds believe more U.S. attacks like last Saturday's are likely.
56% agree with the sentiment that military force is justified to stop a nuclear Iran.
55% believe that Iran's nuclear program was either "obliterated," to use Trump's words, or dealt a major setback. Just 25% thought it was barely affected or was unscathed.
62% said the strikes will have been worth it if Iran stops enriching uranium.
The intrigue: The poll also reflected how Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza has been a drag on how U.S. voters view America's ally.
By 2 percentage points, U.S. voters oppose the war in Gaza, the poll found.
By 54-27%, they believe Israel has too much influence on American foreign policy.
Voters are more inclined to arm Ukraine than Israel, the survey found.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has solid favorability numbers as well, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ratings are negative.
Methodology: The Tyson Group's national survey of 1,027 U.S. voters was conducted online June 25-26. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. To analyze only the responses of those identifying as Republicans, an oversample was used to ensure the margin of error remained consistent. That did not affect the top-line results of the survey.