Labour's on the ropes and Starmer has no answers

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2 days ago

This was the week in which Reform UK finally shattered the facade of indifference maintained by the British political establishment. It was only a year ago next week that Nigel Farage announced his return to frontline politics. As opinion polls show the upstarts leading all other parties by ever wider margins, a whiff of panic has permeated the Downing Street bunker. After its triumph over Labour and the Conservatives in the local elections and the Runcorn by-election at the start of this month, Reform has emerged as a threat to the SNP, which is defending its Holyrood seat in Hamilton next Thursday.
What has brought about this sudden intensity of focus on a party that still has just five MPs in Westminster? There is no longer much doubt about Reform's ability to translate its popularity into electoral success. Labour's legions of backbenchers know that their chances of serving more than a single term depend on seeing off this unfamiliar challenge.
Mr Farage is visibly morphing into a different kind of politician. The welfare and fiscal policies he has just espoused are to the Left of the Tories and, in some cases, of Labour too. Reform promises not only to restore benefits that Rachel Reeves has curtailed, such as the Winter Fuel Allowance, but to go further by removing the two-child benefit cap.
This unaccustomed apparition of the Father Christmas of Clacton seems to have rattled the Prime Minister – so badly, indeed, that he turned up at St Helens on Merseyside this week to devote an entire speech to attacking Mr Farage. Sir Keir Starmer achieved nothing by this excursion apart from drawing attention to the Reform leader and his policies.
Even worse, the Starmer counter-attack found itself bogged down in an unexpectedly fierce barrage of criticism from accompanying journalists, including even those who had been hitherto well-disposed. The irreverence, even hostility, of the PM's interrogation in St Helens signals a serious loss of prestige. After only a year in office, prime ministerial power is visibly ebbing away.
Ironically, Sir Keir has identified the right problem: Nigel Farage and Reform really are an existential threat to Labour. But he has so far failed to come up with any plausible answers. The incoherence of the Government's policies – cutting disability benefits with one hand, while handing out big public sector pay rises with the other – is patently obvious. And the intellectual vacuity of Starmerism has just been highlighted by the absurd comparison of Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives with the Nazis by Lord Hermer, the Attorney General and Sir Keir's right-hand man.
Next week the battle will shift further north to the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election for the Scottish Parliament. This has degenerated into a slanging match between the SNP and Reform, with the former accusing the latter of playing the race card, while the Labour vote is squeezed. Fresh from an appearance at a Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, next week Mr Farage will be in Scotland and doubtless steal the show there too. If Reform were to capture Hamilton, it would be a bitter blow for the SNP: Winnie Ewing's victory there in 1967 first put them on the Westminster electoral map.
Over the summer the Prime Minister hopes to regain momentum with public spending and strategic defence reviews. Yet neither of these worthy documents seems likely to deliver the relaunch that Labour sorely needs. The UK economy is struggling to generate any growth at all after the bloodletting of the Reeves Budget and the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Still living in denial, ministers will resist departmental cuts, thereby thwarting the boost in military investment required by the global threat level.
Another spectre at the feast is the prospect of large-scale revolts over welfare reform. A growing number of Labour MPs are ready to risk the implosion of the Government rather than let down their favoured lobby groups. Labour and Reform could find themselves locked in an unedifying competition to bribe voters with their own money.
The Conservatives now have an opportunity to recast themselves as the party of fiscal responsibility, national security and the work ethic. With millions living on out-of-work benefits, Kemi Badenoch could regain the initiative by showing how to bring people back into the workforce. With the country longing for strong leadership, Mrs Badenoch could well do a better job of taking on Mr Farage than Sir Keir has done so far.
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