What is the Emerald Triangle that may lead to a war between two neighbors and bring down a prime minister

Time of India

6 hours ago

The Emerald Triangle dispute: Could this border clash bring war and topple a prime minister?
Tensions are rising fast around the Emerald Triangle, a remote but highly sensitive area where Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos meet. It may look like a quiet border zone on the map, but recent clashes and military moves have made it a flashpoint that's now threatening to spark a regional conflict—and possibly bring down Thailand's Prime Minister.
The Emerald Triangle came into global headlines when Cambodian and Thai troops exchanged fire near the disputed border in late May 2025. Since then, both countries have fortified positions, villagers have been caught in fear, and political pressure is mounting. At the heart of the issue: a long-standing disagreement over where exactly the border lies in this mountainous zone. But now, it's not just a cartography issue—it's a test of leadership, diplomacy, and peace in Southeast Asia.
Why is the Emerald Triangle suddenly a crisis point?
The Emerald Triangle border dispute isn't new. Thailand and Cambodia have had overlapping claims in this forested, rugged area for years. But things turned dangerous on May 28, when both sides confirmed that troops had exchanged gunfire, leading to injuries and panic among border communities.
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According to Thailand's military, Cambodian soldiers had started digging trenches in the disputed zone. Cambodia later said this was to protect its border post. In response, Thailand deployed reinforcements, closed local checkpoints, and put residents on alert. Some families began digging bunkers, fearing the worst.
By early June, Cambodia agreed to stop the trench digging and restore the land, but not before the conflict stirred up political debate at home and across the region. Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, now President of the Senate, claimed the land was rightfully Cambodian, based on internationally recognized maps. He also urged both countries to take the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to settle it legally.
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Why did a leaked call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen cause such a storm?
The phone call, reportedly shared by Hun Sen with 80 politicians before being leaked, featured Paetongtarn speaking candidly about a sensitive border dispute. She addressed Hun Sen — a long-time friend of her family — as 'uncle' and criticized a Thai army officer involved in managing the flare-up at the Thai-Cambodian border.
'He just wanted to look cool and said things that are not useful,' she said of the Thai military commander, sparking a backlash over perceived disrespect to the powerful Thai military.
While Paetongtarn later defended her comments as a 'negotiation technique,' critics say the call showed weakness in leadership and compromised Thailand's stance on a long-standing territorial dispute.
Who has left Paetongtarn's coalition and why does it matter?
On Wednesday, the Bhumjaithai Party, Thailand's second-largest political party and a key member of the ruling coalition, officially withdrew support for Paetongtarn's government. With its departure, the Peu Thai-led coalition now holds a razor-thin majority in parliament.
Two more coalition parties are scheduled to meet later today to decide their stance — meaning a complete collapse of the ruling alliance is a real possibility.
Paetongtarn apologized on Thursday, stating, 'I would like to apologise for the leaked audio… which has caused public resentment,' but the damage might already be done.
Is this dispute putting Thailand's Prime Minister in danger?
The
Emerald Triangle conflict
has become a serious test for Thailand's Prime Minister
Srettha Thavisin
, who is already under pressure from coalition struggles and growing economic challenges. With the military on alert and the public nervous, any misstep could cost him his job—or worse, risk dragging the country into a deeper conflict.
Srettha's government is still new and doesn't have full control over the military, which has a history of acting independently. The Thai armed forces are monitoring the border closely and may push for more aggressive moves if tensions flare up again. If the military loses faith in Srettha's handling of national security, it could spark calls for a change in leadership.
Political analysts in Bangkok have warned that the Emerald Triangle issue could become a
"trigger event"
—something that starts as a local skirmish but ends up
breaking apart the government
. And in Thailand's history, military pressure has often led to either reshuffling the Cabinet or full-blown coups.
Can this be resolved without war?
There's still hope that diplomacy will win. On June 12, both Cambodia and Thailand agreed to
de-escalate
after a high-level meeting. Cambodia promised to fill the trenches, and both countries said they'd avoid further moves in disputed areas.
But the story isn't over.
Hun Sen continues to press the ICJ route, saying only the international court can fairly settle the boundary issue. Thailand, on the other hand, hasn't yet confirmed if it will agree to ICJ arbitration. Both sides claim to have official documents and maps backing their claims, and neither wants to back down publicly.
That means the peace is fragile. While both governments may want to avoid war,
border tensions can escalate quickly
, especially if local commanders or military units act on their own. That's why experts are calling for
immediate talks, a ceasefire agreement, and third-party observers
—possibly from ASEAN or the UN.
How did the leaked call impact Thai-Cambodian relations?
The leak added fuel to a simmering border row between the two nations. In May, a deadly clash at a contested border zone led to the death of a Cambodian soldier. Since then, tensions have escalated.
In response to Thai restrictions, Cambodia banned the import of Thai fruits and vegetables, halted Thai dramas on TV and in cinemas, and reduced Thai internet and power usage. Meanwhile, Thailand also imposed tighter border controls and entry restrictions on Cambodian citizens.
In a diplomatic letter, Thailand's foreign ministry called the leak 'deeply disappointing,' adding it 'will severely affect ongoing efforts… to resolve the problem in good faith.'
What's behind the long-running border dispute?
The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute stretches back more than a century, linked to a 1907 map drawn under French colonial rule. Cambodia has cited that map to support its territorial claims, while Thailand rejects it as inaccurate.
Disputed areas include sites like Mom Bei (Chong Bok) — where the May clash happened — and three ancient temples, including the Preah Vihear Temple, which was awarded to Cambodia in a 1962 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Thailand accepted that ruling, but disputes about land surrounding the temple have continued to spark violence.
Most recently, Cambodia submitted a new case to the ICJ over four disputed border points. Thailand, however, does not accept the court's jurisdiction and prefers bilateral negotiations.
Could Paetongtarn Shinawatra resign over the controversy?
The pressure on Paetongtarn, the youngest and only the second female prime minister in Thailand's history, is growing. She took office in August 2024 after her predecessor Srettha Thavisin was removed by the Constitutional Court for violating appointment rules.
Opposition leaders and even some of her own coalition members have called for her to step down. Paetongtarn, daughter of exiled and now-returned former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, also faces scrutiny over her family's close ties with the Cambodian Hun political dynasty.
Hun Sen, Cambodia's former leader, has said he will no longer engage in private phone calls with Paetongtarn. He also admitted sharing the leaked audio and later posted the full 17-minute conversation on his official Facebook page.
What's next for the Thai-Cambodian border conflict?
The fallout from the leaked call could shift regional dynamics. Cambodia has asked the ICJ to intervene, while Thailand remains firm in preferring bilateral talks. Both countries have shortened visa stays for each other's citizens, and economic retaliation continues on both sides.
Tensions remain high, with mass rallies in Phnom Penh on Wednesday drawing tens of thousands of Cambodians in support of their government's firm stance. Hun Manet, Cambodia's new Prime Minister and son of Hun Sen, addressed the crowds, saying, 'When the country faces a threat… we will stand up in united spirit.'
With national pride and political futures at stake in both nations, observers say the situation could deteriorate further unless cooler heads prevail.
FAQs:
Q1: Why is
Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra
under pressure to resign?
Because of a leaked phone call with Hun Sen that upset the public and political allies.
Q2: What triggered the latest Thailand-Cambodia border tensions?
A fatal border clash in May and fallout from the leaked call escalated the dispute.