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Business Standard CEO Poll: Wars, trade frictions test biz confidence
75% of CEOs are "cautiously optimistic" about the future
BS Reporters Mumbai/New Delhi/Kolkata/Bangalore/Chennai
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Nearly 75 per cent of Indian CEOs say that the global uncertainty — driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and the uncertain trade tariff environment — is 'somewhat impacting' their businesses. However, the remaining respondents do not foresee any significant disruptions, according to a nationwide dipstick survey of the CEOs conducted last week.
Despite the geopolitical tensions, 83.33 per cent of the 12 CEOs surveyed by Business Standard affirmed that they are not altering their greenfield investment plans, even after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday raised the stakes in the region.
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Business Standard
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- Business Standard
US bombs Iran nuclear facilities: Impact on stocks, bonds, oil decoded here
Following Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear sites on 13 June, the US bombed three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. This military strike was widely anticipated by the market after Mr. Trump's recent warnings. The conflict could escalate further, as the US and Israel may push for the fall of Khamenei's regime in Iran, as it may retaliate to survive. Brent crude oil price is already up about 18 per cent in the past month, fearing escalation, but still remains below $80/bbl. Despite Iran being a heavily sanctioned country, it is estimated that Iran produces 3.0 to 4.0 million barrels of oil (world oil output of 103 million barrels last year), and it largely exports it to China. Iran warned that it may close the Strait of Hormuz (~26 per cent of oil trade), attack US military installations in the region, and take other military and diplomatic actions. We believe a large part of the impact on oil prices has already been reflected; however, oil may see a significant spike even from this level if Iran is able to choke major trade routes or Russia gets directly involved in the conflict. In the medium-to-long term, the supply response may help bring down oil prices, in our view. Wider Geopolitical Conflict Possible but Probability is Low: Russia is already fully occupied with Ukraine and has withdrawn its troops from Syria, resulting in the downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, which Russia long supported. The possibility of China or other Middle Eastern countries directly involving themselves in the conflict is also low, in our view. Impact on Indian Financial Markets: India is one of the most vulnerable countries with respect to oil price movements, given our import bill in FY 2025 reached $137 billion (3.7 per cent of GDP). Nevertheless, India's susceptibility to oil prices has reduced drastically recently, given India's solid macroeconomic fundamentals. Hence, overall India's macro and financial market performance may come under pressure, but it may not deteriorate significantly. The INR has already started to come under pressure despite the Dollar Index remaining below 99 levels and closer to 52-week low levels. We expect the INR to fall further against major currencies in coming days, and RBI intervention will be keenly watched. The Indian bond market could see some yield spike, especially longer-tenure bonds, which could offer a buying opportunity, as we believe yields could settle at lower levels in the medium to long term. It is likely that global equity markets may not react much to this conflict, as policies from central banks remain well supportive, including in India. Indian equities may see some knee-jerk reaction, and sectors like defence, IT, and pharma may outperform, while banks, logistics, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors like NBFC and real estate may underperform in the near term. However, we continue to like interest-rate-sensitive names, and any major correction could offer a buying opportunity. Our positive view on gold continues. Despite escalating geopolitical concerns, the dollar hasn't seen any major safe-haven buying, which makes gold even more attractive.
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Stock Market LIVE: GIFT Nifty down; Asia falls on US entry in Israel-Iran war
Sensex Today | Stock Market LIVE on Monday, June 23, 2025: At 6:32 AM, GIFT Nifty futures were trading 148 points lower at 24,964, indicating a gap-down start for the bourses. 7:25 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: Amazon enters India's $15 bn diagnostics market with at-home testing Stock Market LIVE Updates: Amazon India has launched Amazon Diagnostics, an at-home healthcare service that allows customers to book lab tests, schedule appointments and receive digital reports directly via the Amazon app. Initially available in six cities—Bengaluru, Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Mumbai and Hyderabad—the service covers more than 450 PIN codes and offers access to over 800 diagnostic tests. Customers can request doorstep sample collection within 60 minutes and receive digital reports for routine tests in as little as six hours, the company said. READ MORE 7:24 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: Nearly 75 per cent of Indian CEOs say that the global uncertainty — driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and the uncertain trade tariff environment — is 'somewhat impacting' their businesses. However, the remaining respondents do not foresee any significant disruptions, according to a nationwide dipstick survey of the CEOs conducted last week. Despite the geopolitical tensions, 83.33 per cent of the 12 CEOs surveyed by Business Standard affirmed that they are not altering their greenfield investment plans, even after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday raised the stakes in the region. READ MORE 7:23 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: Crude shocks loom on domestic market as US joins Iran-Israel conflict Stock Market LIVE Updates: Investors may have to brace for heightened volatility on Monday, following the US military's direct involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict over the weekend. Analysts expect benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty to correct by 1-1.5 per cent if crude oil prices spike and Asian markets react negatively to the escalating tensions in West Asia. However, sustained buying by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) could help cushion the blow. Last week, Indian equities gained over 1.5 per cent despite rising hostilities between Iran and Israel. On early Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced targeted airstrikes on three of Iran's major nuclear facilities — Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan — using stealth bombers and bunker-buster bombs. He described the strikes as a 'spectacular military success' and claimed Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities had been 'obliterated'. Trump warned of further military action should Tehran retaliate. READ MORE 7:20 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: It was an unprecedented attack years in the making, with some last-minute misdirection meant to give the operation a powerful element of surprise. US pilots dropped 30,000-pound bombs early Sunday on two key underground uranium enrichment plants in Iran, delivering what American military leaders believe is a knockout blow to a nuclear programme that Israel views as an existential threat and has been pummelling for more than a week. American sailors bolstered the surprise mission by firing dozens of cruise missiles from a submarine toward at least one other site. READ MORE 7:14 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: RBI deepens scrutiny of bank board meetings and governance practices Stock Market LIVE Updates: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is taking a much closer look at bank board deliberations and may issue directives to improve governance practices. Senior officials in both state-run and private banks told Business Standard that following the developments at IndusInd Bank, the central bank's senior supervisory managers (SSMs) were asking questions on the agenda presented to boards, the time spent discussing specific items, and observations made by independent directors. READ MORE 7:10 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: West Asia conflict: Exporters in dire straits as Hormuz trade route erupts Stock Market LIVE Updates: Shippers and logistics firms in India — key to the export–import (exim) trade — now fear no quick relief from the global shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which now is at the verge of closure. This follows the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday and subsequent Iranian strikes on Israel. 'Freight rates have started rising, and the situation is volatile. With the US hitting critical Iranian nuclear sites, retaliation is expected, and tensions will stay high. This will affect oil prices and shipping charges. War risk premiums are already being added to shipments. Exporters have started feeling the heat in both air and sea freight,' said Dushyant Mulani, chairman of the Federation of Freight Forwarders' Associations in India. READ MORE 7:08 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: US bombs Iran nuclear facilities: Impact on stocks, bonds, oil decoded here Stock Market LIVE Updates: Following Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear sites on 13 June, the US bombed three nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. This military strike was widely anticipated by the market after Mr. Trump's recent warnings. The conflict could escalate further, as the US and Israel may push for the fall of Khamenei's regime in Iran, as it may retaliate to survive. Brent crude oil price is already up about 18 per cent in the past month, fearing escalation, but still remains below $80/bbl. Despite Iran being a heavily sanctioned country, it is estimated that Iran produces 3.0 to 4.0 million barrels of oil (world oil output of 103 million barrels last year), and it largely exports it to China. Iran warned that it may close the Strait of Hormuz (~26 per cent of oil trade), attack US military installations in the region, and take other military and diplomatic actions. READ MORE 7:05 AM Stock Market LIVE Updates: US markets end mixed on Friday
Hindustan Times
7 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit
In this file photo taken on April 30, 2019, Iranian soldiers take part in the "National Persian Gulf day" in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Parliament voted Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage out of the Persian Gulf. If the regime does this, it will be consistent with Iran's recent behavior, which is to go for its own jugular. Iran is run by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so the Supreme National Security Council will make the final decision. PREMIUM Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit Some 20% or more of the world's oil supply moves through the Strait after loading from oil terminals in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran. There's no doubt that closing the Strait would send oil prices higher, probably above $100 a barrel for a time. A risk premium for a possible closure has already bumped the oil price to the mid-$70 a barrel range since Israel launched its attacks on Iran. The world supply of oil is more diverse than it was 20 years ago, thanks in part to American frackers. Some Gulf oil can also move via pipeline from Saudi Arabia. China would be one of the biggest losers from a Hormuz shutdown, as much of its oil comes from the Gulf. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made that point on the Sunday talk shows, urging China to advise Iran against closing the Strait. Iran can certainly do some short-term damage. The shipping passage through the Strait is two miles at its narrowest and vulnerable to sea mines. Iran could harass ships with its naval forces, notably high-speed patrol boats, as well as drones and missiles from onshore. But the U.S. has ample Navy resources in the region and can clear the mines in relatively short order. Iran will also have to think about the prospect of losing its entire navy if it does close down the Strait. Former Centcom Commander Frank McKenzie predicted Sunday on CBS's Face the Nation exactly that prospect if Iran made that mistake, and Mr. Rubio said on the same program that closing the Strait 'would be a suicidal move on their part because I think the whole world would come against them if they did that.' The Hormuz threat underscores the wisdom of President Trump's decision to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. Imagine if Iran had nuclear weapons and threatened to close down the Strait to leverage some geopolitical or military advantage. The Western response to clear the Strait would be a much higher risk. 'There are no planned military operations right now against Iran unless—unless they mess around and they attack American[s] or American interests,' Mr. Rubio said. 'Then they're going to have a problem. Then they're going to have a problem, and I'm not going to broadcast what those problems are.' Mr. Trump is again offering Iran's leaders a choice of negotiating peace or retaliating and inviting more harm to their country. They learned the hard way on Saturday that doubting Mr. Trump's red lines is a mistake.
