The Future of the Filibuster
The filibuster is on life support. Both parties have vowed to protect it, but both have chipped away at it. The latest blow came last week, when the parliamentarian, Senate's independent rules referee, said a measure to strike down a California air pollution law was not exempt from the filibuster's 60-vote threshold — and Republicans found a way to maneuver around her, pushing the bill through with a simple majority.
The next test for the filibuster is coming soon, when members consider a sprawling bill that carries much of President Trump's domestic agenda. Republicans are moving it through Congress using special rules that shield fiscal legislation from a filibuster and that strictly limit what may be included in such bills.
The Senate majority leader, John Thune, says he'll safeguard the filibuster.Today's newsletter explains how this parliamentary maneuver, made famous by windy speeches given for TV in the middle of the night, is changing.
Defining filibuster downward
Republicans can hardly be accused of delivering the blow that sent the filibuster reeling. That punch came from Democrats a dozen years ago, in November 2013. The G.O.P. was blocking Barack Obama's judicial nominees, so Harry Reid, then the majority leader, orchestrated a series of votes to eliminate the 60-vote threshold for most confirmations.
Four years later, Republicans extended that filibuster exemption to Supreme Court nominees. Two years later, they shortened the time it takes to consider any lower-level nominee, a change that allowed both parties to speed the seating of judges.
The moves had monumental consequences. They enabled Trump to place three justices of his choosing on the Supreme Court. He didn't need to make selections palatable to Democrats, since they could no longer influence the outcome. Most current members of Trump's cabinet probably wouldn't have been confirmed if a 60-vote threshold remained.
Median income of triple-trending counties
Shifted right
Shifted left
in each of the
last three elections
$140,000
per year
Only three counties that
shifted toward Trump
have a median income
above $100,000.
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
Shifted left
in each of the last three elections
Shifted right
$140,000 per year
Only three counties that shifted toward Trump have a median income above $100,000.
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
Note: Circle size indicates county population.
Sources: Associated Press (2024 results); Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (historical results); American Community Survey (income)
By The New York Times
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