UFC 316 preview: If Sean O'Malley loses again to Merab Dvalishvili, is this the end?

Yahoo

5 hours ago

It's a bantamweight showcase as the UFC heads back to New Jersey this weekend, with titles on the line in both the men's and women's 135-pound divisions. On the men's side it's a rematch, as 'Suga' Sean O'Malley tries to win back the title he lost at UFC 306 in September against Merab Dvalishvili. On the women's side, it's the ushering in of a new era, as Kayla Harrison — the Olympic judoka who has made it her mission to win a UFC title — arrives as a massive favorite to overthrow Julianna Peña.
Or is it the dawn of a new era?
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Let's jump right in with five burning questions heading into UFC 316.
1. Sean O'Malley gave up his favorite pastimes — marijuana, social media, masturbation — to better focus for this rematch. He's all in! Is this the end of the 'Suga Show' if he loses?
Petesy Carroll: It would be the end of me full-stop, man. I'm kind of perplexed by it all. Certainly, two of these three things were foundational elements of the 'Suga' brand and then to add to that there's the abstaining from social media … I'm kidding. Well, kind of, is O'Malley getting into golf now or what's he doing to fill the void? Is he crocheting? Did he get a New York Times subscription and start playing Sudoku? Feels like he's treating this like a do-or-die fight. That said if he loses, I expect him to move up to featherweight and return to his old puffing, typing and … well you get the point, he'd start doing all of those things again, right?
Chuck Mindenhall: Doesn't it feel 'Suga' Sean is forever, like, 26 years old? It's odd that he's now 30, which is right around that age when we like to say a fighter is 'peaking.' If he can clear the Merab hurdle, I think he'd skyrocket back into that star area he was in before being humbled at the Sphere, with all those vices he's sacrificing for this fight once again at the core of his being.
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I also think he moves up to featherweight if he loses, as being behind the Merab eight-ball is a nihilistic situation. With guys like O'Malley, there are still plenty of options ahead, all of which I am sure he'd just assume avoid.
What becomes of "Suga" Sean O'Malley should he lose again to Merab Dvalishvili? (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)
(Chris Unger via Getty Images)
2. Are you disturbed by the lack of heat for this rematch? Merab and O'Malley have been so respectful in the lead-up, haven't they?
Chuck: The last time through was different, as O'Malley was holding the title and treating Merab like a nuisance to be dealt with … and we all knew he was much more than a nuisance. All the shots they were taking at each other felt more playful than anything else, strictly for entertainment purposes. I didn't sense a lot of genuine heat, outside of Tim Welch's contributions to the mix.
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This time through it has been very quiet. Not just with the principals in play, but in general. I haven't heard anybody outside of the MMA spectrum mention that O'Malley is fighting this weekend, which is startling, no?
Petesy: Let's be honest, 'Lack of Heat' could be title of a Netflix documentary about UFC's start to 2025. I don't know if it's anything to do with the switch up in dynamic between the lads as much as it's just fan fatigue at this point. Being a UFC fan in 2025 is like being in a semi-serious relationship. You're expected to give up a day of your life every week regardless of the stakes, intrigue or ability on display on these cards.
When a genuinely good one comes along like this, I think it's just difficult for everyone to switch into the 'excitement' gear. I do think it's a really good card, but I can't remember the last time we were all frothing at the mouth for a UFC pay-per-view. It certainly hasn't been over the five months, and that's pretty sad. All in all, I guess it's that situation that I find more disturbing than anything else but replies on X would have me believe I'm a jaded old fool and I need to lose some weight, but that's beside the point.
3. What is Julianna Peña's path to victory over the massive favorite, Kayla Harrison?
Petesy: I won't let Julianna Peña's disrespect of my nationality or her claims that I want to be pegged by Kayla Harrison color my opinion on this one, Chuck. But, let it be known that a lesser man would. Why would she makes such claims, you ask? Well, it's because I'm the only one on the entire hosting staff of "The Ariel Helwani Show" that picked — *checks notes* — the biggest betting favorite a challenger has ever been in the history of UFC, in this case Harrison, to have her hand raised on Saturday night.
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Be that as it may, I think Peña can absolutely get the job done. We've witnessed her shock the world before against Amanda Nunes and if she can keep this fight standing and keep her lead hand in Harrison's face, the Olympic gold medalist might be left with a lot to do by the time the championship rounds kick in.
Let the record show that I don't think that will happen, though.
Chuck: Julianna really said all that? About the pegging? Damn, I must've missed that segment. One of the reasons she has been a two-time champion in this sport is because she takes little sleights like that and packs it into her resolve. Nobody carries a chip like the "Venezuelan Vixen," Petesy, and I admire that you stuck to your guns on this.
My thing with Harrison is the same as always. How much will that weight cut take out of her in the end? She has now been living on a restrictive diet for well over a year and getting down to 135 pounds is a recurring hell. One of these times it will come back to bite her, and we'll hear about it afterward. Will that be this time?
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I think Harrison will win this fight, because I think she'll get it to the ground and do work there. Yet, I will say Peña is a live dog. We saw Ketlen Vieira survive to see the scorecards with Harrison, which made her seem … less inevitable. If she can't get the fight where she wants it? Things might get interesting in a hurry.
Patchy Mix (20-1, 2 KOs), former Bellator bantamweight championship, makes his UFC debut at UFC 316. (Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
4. Of all the Bellator fighters who've come over to UFC, where do you rank Patchy Mix ahead of his fight with Mario Bautista?
Chuck: We've seen some good ones come through from Bellator over the years, including Eddie Alvarez, Michael Chandler and Alexander Volkov back in the day, along with Patricio Pitbull, Aaron Pico and Michael 'Venom' Page more recently. I would place Patchy Mix right up there among the best of the bunch for one reason: He's very much still in his prime.
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He is 31 years old and just hitting on all cylinders, having won seven fights in a row. He hasn't taken nearly as much damage as Alvarez and Chandler (who inflicted plenty of it on each other), and he's far more proven as a former champion than, say, Pico. There's a good possibility that if Mix beats Bautista that he's catapulted into the top space to be challenging for a title, and I think he'll get his shot at some point in the near future.
Petesy: I think he might be the best. There have been greats in the past, as Alvarez famously went on to claim the lightweight title after making the transition. Eddie was a year younger than Patchy when he made the move but I also think that he joined a lightweight division that wasn't as healthy as the current situation we see in the UFC's bantamweight class. That might be unfair to Eddie, as he had to get through Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis before dethroning Rafael Dos Anjos, but I really feel this is one of the strongest bantamweight rosters of all time.
If Patchy ain't the best, I'd have him second to Eddie, but I'm expecting big things from him.
5. What's one other fight on UFC 316 that is guaranteed to deliver?
Petesy: Luque vs. Holland has chaos written all over it. And speaking of chaos, or a variation of the spelling, Khaos Williams and Andreas Gustafsson could be a banger, too. While we're on the topic of things that are guaranteed to deliver, the most exciting part of the whole damn night for me will be jumping on YouTube for a live show with you and the big homie Helwani for our 3PAC post-fight special! Yes, that was a blatant plug, and I can only apologize. See you there, Mith!
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Chuck: Blatant plug, and I love it — no need to apologize. Glad to have the gang back together. I will see if I can get in a word edgewise with you two yappers, but one thing I know for certain we'll be discussing? The return of the great Kelvin Gastelum.
I kid, of course. (How is Gastelum still appearing on these cards? His nickname should be the 'Cockroach,' because you just can't kill him.)
There's a reason they put that Luque-Holland fight at the top of the PPV, and it's not because they are brilliant technicians, Petesy. With no real care about title shots or any of the worldly structures the UFC has put up, their whole mission is to tear it all down. It's a fight with next to no perceptible stakes, which is some serious Chris Leben territory. Action is the only goal. To live-for-the-now and to put on a show. I think this one delivers.