Panthers forecheck vs. Oilers breakout: The matchup that will likely decide the Stanley Cup Final

New York Times

4 days ago

EDMONTON — It is the matchup that most likely will decide this year's Stanley Cup Final.
In one corner of the ring, there's the Florida Panthers and their aggressive forecheck, which produces turnovers and mayhem. And well, ultimately, offense.
In the other corner of the ring, there's the Edmonton Oilers and their mobile blue-line corps, adept at quickly retrieving pucks and feeding the team's high-octane forwards in transition.
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Something's got to give.
'There's lots of teams that can play the game every way. We're just not one of them,' Panthers coach Paul Maurice said Tuesday on the eve of Game 1. 'We got to play it one way.'
'If they're going to forecheck hard, perfect. Perfect,' Oilers D coach Paul Coffey said. 'Because we'd better be skating and moving the puck.'
The Hockey Hall of Fame defenseman turned coach has been at the heart of the Oilers' philosophical approach on the blue line since the day he went behind the bench in November 2023, preaching holding onto pucks and trying to make plays instead of just ripping pucks off the glass.
'If you watch our practices, every single day, we work on that,' Coffey told The Athletic in his office at Rogers Place. 'You can't put a pass on a player's stick as an NHL player? You shouldn't be in this league. From Day 1, that was about a confidence thing.'
All of which is why when Oilers general manager Stan Bowman went out to bolster the blue line this season, he didn't look for defensive, shutdown types. He doubled down on what he already had, adding two more puck-movers in John Klingberg and Jake Walman.
'Our identity is being a good puck-moving team,' Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch said Tuesday. 'But if you don't have the defensemen who can make those good plays and pass the puck up to the forwards, you're not a puck-moving team. So I think it was great additions in Klingberg and Walman.''
Both of them have flourished under Coffey and both have found their stride playing in a system that preaches what they do best.
'You've got to make plays. I said to our D from Day 1: 'You want the forwards to like you? Put it on their stick,' Coffey said. 'If you can't skate and you can't make a play, I'll get someone that can. It's very simple. These guys are NHL players. Somewhere along the way, they were their team's top two or three defensemen. Then they get here and they get put in a box. And they're not allowed to be that guy anymore, and they lose their confidence. Which is the biggest thing. So I just encourage it.'
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Walman's eyes lit up Tuesday when asked about Coffey's impact on his game since coming over in a trade from the San Jose Sharks in early March.
'Yeah, it's been great. Definitely a different voice than I've ever been coached by,' Walman said. 'Does it in a different way. But it's a lot easier. You know what to expect. Gets his point across. He wants us to hold onto the puck. I feel like I've been able to develop some little parts of my game with him. It's been great and I think it's going to be great for my career going forward.'
But that Oilers' blue-line mindset is going to be tested in this series. Nobody does it like Florida.
'They want to rim pucks in; they stack the rim with two forwards,'' said one Eastern Conference head coach, who requested anonymity. 'If Edmonton can bump it behind the net, Florida's F3 will pressure that and their D will pinch any pucks on walls.''
And from a Western Conference head coach:
'It will be hard for the Edmonton D corps to break out pucks, and the amount of time they will spend defending during the series versus Florida's heavy O-zone commitment. The downside to Florida's strength is that they give up odd-man rushes, and Edmonton has the elite skill to capitalize on those compared to most teams.'
Bingo.
Think back to Florida's opening two games against Toronto in the second round. That's as vulnerable as the Panthers have looked during their dominant playoff run. The Leafs were quick enough getting pucks going the other direction in those two opening wins that Florida's overcommitment on the forecheck led to counter-rush chances. The Panthers adjusted after those two games, but there's no question in my mind the Oilers' coaching staff would have watched that closely.
Maurice said going from the Tampa Bay first-round series to the Toronto series was a major shift in style, and the Panthers weren't quite ready for it.
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'It was a major shift going into Toronto — just the systems are all completely different,' Maurice said. 'We struggled with that for the first game or two. It was a big change. Our forecheck is good because we make the right decisions at the line. We don't dump every puck. I don't want them to dump every puck. But we're also not going to try to make a play at the line every time, and over time, players have got a pretty good idea of what's coming next. He's going to put that puck in deep, or there's a play to be made.
'If you can figure that part out of what you're doing, you get to a fairly high percentage of being right and you play faster. That way, you forecheck a little faster. We were late on our forecheck in the first two games in Toronto. … Our decisions had to change. We kind of figured it out.'
When Florida's forecheck is at its best, which it has been for most of these playoffs, it means forwards are completely in sync.
Said Panthers center Anton Lundell on Tuesday of what their forecheck looks like at its best version: 'I just think we all know what we're doing. We move our feet all the time, which is probably hard for the other team to defend or even be able to get out of the D-zone because we're on them all the time.'
Lundell also sees parallels between how the Maple Leafs and Oilers play, which should help Florida.
'Yeah, I feel like there's some similarities to Toronto: high-end skill forwards, fast forwards,' he said. 'But even last year in the Final, we saw what Edmonton had. They've got fast, great players. You have to be aware all the time on the ice, especially when the top players are on the ice.''
Because Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and Edmonton's top forwards will be looking to go, go, go, and counter-attack once their blueliners take possession of the puck.
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The question is, will the Oilers' blueliners struggle to make those plays because of the pressure the Panthers put on them?
'Hopefully, part of that game plan is counterattacking that,' Walman said. 'We know they're aggressive, but hopefully we can get them out of position a little bit and jump by them. That's the biggest asset that we have, is being able to move our feet and getting by it. Hopefully, we can turn that into a positive for us.'
Our Oilers beat writer, Daniel Nugent-Bowman, asked Ekholm what he learned about defending against the Panthers last year that can be applied a second time around.
'You've got to be alert at all times, and especially on their forecheck,' Ekholm said. 'They come hard, with a lot of guys and a lot of bodies. (You have to) be quick going back for pucks. … When you play a team that's that strong on the forecheck, it's about making that one play or win that one battle that can make you make the next play. Then, things seem to open up more. You've just got to be alert out there and anticipate the next play before it even happens.'
Having played them a year ago in the Cup Final helps prepare Edmonton for what's coming at them starting Wednesday night.
'They're fast. They get on top of you. They're physical,' Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse said of the Panthers. 'So for us, (Paul Coffey) preaches, the first play you see is usually the best play to make. So he definitely preaches to make plays with confidence. That really helps our group just go out there and play and not worry about things. But a team that comes as aggressive and fast as they do, the first play is probably going to be the right play.'
Said Klingberg: 'They have a lot of dogs on that team that are going to try to run you.'
The key in Edmonton countering that is not just the defensemen making quick and correct reads on puck retrievals, but also making sure they're connected as five-man units, Klingberg said.
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'What you need to do to be successful — and I think what we're doing as a team — is you need to know where everyone is at,' he said. 'It's not just the D is going back for the puck, it's the forwards have to come back, and the center has to get low so you break out the puck as five. That's something this team is doing really well.'
There will be times in this series when the Panthers' forecheck will have the upper hand. Other times, the Oilers' blueliners will effectively negate it. The question is which one happens most often. That's going to be this series in a nutshell.
(Top photo of Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart forechecking Darnell Nurse in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)