Thunder vs. Pacers: How can Indiana survive with Tyrese Haliburton hobbled? 3 big questions for do-or-die Game 6

Yahoo

4 hours ago

Come Friday morning, the eyes of the NBA-watching world will be trained on Oklahoma City. The only question: Will we be watching for details on a parade route … or getting ready for a winner-take-all, Larry O'B-on-the-line Game 7?
Here are three big things to keep an eye on as the Thunder and Pacers work to hash that out in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Thursday night:
How will the Pacers score without (or with a limited) Tyrese Haliburton?
Haliburton didn't look at all like himself in Game 5, laboring as he moved around the court from the middle of the first quarter onward and finishing without a field goal for the first time since February. Subsequent testing revealed why: Haliburton suffered a right calf strain that Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said will render Indiana's star point guard a game-time decision for Thursday's do-or-die Game 6.
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'I think I have to be as smart as I want to be,' Haliburton said during his news conference at the Pacers' practice session on Wednesday. 'Have to understand the risks, ask the right questions. I'm a competitor; I want to play. I'm going to do everything in my power to play. That's just what it is.'
Amid the uncertainty surrounding Haliburton's status, Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said the challenge facing his team is to maintain the same level of preparation and discipline regardless of whether the 2025 postseason's assist leader laces 'em up.
'Haliburton is a great player. One thing we know is, you don't underestimate great players,' Daigneault said Wednesday. 'So, in the case that he plays, we're expecting his best punch. Indiana is a great team. We don't underestimate great teams. In either case, whether he plays or not, we're expecting Indiana's best punch, especially at home.'
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At issue, though, is just how much oomph will be behind the Pacers' best punch if Haliburton's as limited as he was in Game 5, and what angle it'll come from if he's unavailable to throw it.
Haliburton is the engine of Indiana's fast-paced, high-octane, pass-heavy, turnover-light attack. The Pacers turn the ball over more frequently and generate 3-pointers way less frequently when Haliburton's not at the controls. They don't get out in transition as often, and they don't score as efficiently when they do — particularly off of defensive rebounds, where Haliburton's penchant for throwing hit-ahead passes helps send Indiana flying into early offense against scrambled defenses.
The pain of his absence has been particularly acute in the playoffs. Throughout the postseason, the Pacers have scored 14 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court than when he's off it. Against Oklahoma City in the Finals, Indiana has scored just 102.3 points-per-100 in the 60 minutes he's been on the bench — a level of fecklessness that would rank several fathoms below the Washington Wizards' league-worst full-season offensive rating.
If Haliburton's unable to go, the Pacers will need someone else to bend the defense to help create clean looks for others. They'll need a monster game from Pascal Siakam, their leading scorer in this series, whose ability to generate switches and punish cross-matches against smaller Oklahoma City defenders has often been Indiana's best source of offense in this series. They'll need Andrew Nembhard to look less like the rattled auxiliary ball-handler he was in the second half of Game 5 and more like the confident creator he was in Games 3 and 4 against the Celtics in the 2024 Eastern Conference finals, when Haliburton was sidelined by a hamstring injury and Nembhard responded by averaging 28 points and 9.5 assists on 56/54/100 shooting splits.
'The experience in the playoffs last year, where he had to play the point, that was terrific for him,' Carlisle said before Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Knicks. 'He's a guy that loves to compete, loves to learn. He wants to get better and better.'
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They'll need another game-tilting performance from the second unit of T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin. They'll need Myles Turner to shake off the shooting slump that's seen him miss 17 of his 22 3-point tries in the Finals. They'll need, as Carlisle put it between Games 3 and 4, 'nothing less than everything we possibly have — together.'
'I think the way we play, I think it's never been about one person,' Siakam said Wednesday. 'I don't really look at it that way. I think obviously Tyrese is a big part of what we do. Whether he plays or not, I think it's going to be a team thing. We have to, together, all step up … I don't think any one of us should feel like one person is going to have to do it. It's going to be collective.'
And it's going to have to start on the defensive end.
Can Indiana get OKC's offense back in check?
Through the first three games of the Finals, the Thunder were averaging 114 points-per-100 — 7.1 points-per-100 below their regular-season mark, and 3.8 points-per-100 below what they'd put up through the first three rounds of the postseason. Indiana had made life difficult on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — first by cutting off his teammates and forcing him to do everything himself, and then by ramping up its full-court pressure to pipe-bursting levels — and neither Jalen Williams nor Chet Holmgren could consistently make shots. The Pacers weren't lighting up the scoreboard themselves, but keeping Oklahoma City out of sorts kept them in position to pull off the upset.
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And then, in the fourth quarter of Game 4, the Thunder got, um, back in sorts.
Oklahoma City has scored 151 points in 119 possessions over the last five quarters of this series, according to PBP Stats — a scorching 127 offensive rating. Daigneault's decision to accept the Pacers' pressure, move Gilgeous-Alexander off the ball and toss the keys to Williams has led to sustained offensive success for the Thunder, with SGA dominating the closing minutes of Game 4 and Williams delivering a 40-point star turn in Game 5.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams coming through with tough buckets is bad enough for Indiana. When the Thunder can generate easy ones, though — on the offensive glass, where Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have led the charge to OKC grabbing 37.1% of its misses in Games 4 and 5, and through its defense, generating 57 points off of Pacer turnovers over the past two games — they're damn near impossible to beat.
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'The two things right now that are really bothersome and challenging for us [are] the rebounding, the second-shot rebounds, and the turnovers,' Carlisle said Wednesday. 'We're going to do our best to address those things.'
If the Pacers can protect the ball and hold OKC to one shot, they'll give themselves a chance to extend the series. If they can't, they'll end Thursday watching the Thunder celebrate on their home court.
Can the Pacers make OKC ease off the gas at all?
The last time Indiana faced a Game 6 trailing 3-2 in a series, it was in 2024's second round, against the Knicks. They drilled New York at home, then went on the road and produced one of the greatest shooting displays in the history of the NBA postseason to win Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.
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'We've been in this position before. … What we need to do is buckle down, stand strong,' Carlisle said Wednesday. 'I anticipate one of the best crowds in the history of Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We got to find a way.'
The last time Oklahoma City faced a Game 6 leading 3-2 in the series, it was two rounds ago, against the Nuggets. Denver dominated the second half, outscoring the Thunder 46-31 over the final 18 minutes to make SGA and Co. sweat, forcing a Game 7 back at Paycom Center.
All Finals long, reporters and Thunder players have noted the similarities between this series and that one: OKC controlling Game 1 before losing on a buzzer-beater, responding with a Game 2 blowout, dropping Game 3 on the road to fall down 2-1, riding defense and Gilgeous-Alexander's playmaking to regain control and get to within arm's reach of victory. The Thunder enter Thursday hoping the similarities end there; they'd much rather close out in Indianapolis than face a winner-take-all finale, and show that they've learned the most valuable lesson the postseason has to take.
'The cusp of winning is not winning,' Gilgeous-Alexander said Wednesday. 'The way I see it, winning is all that matters.'