There's no hero waiting in the wings who'll ride to indy's rescue

The National

a day ago

This may be no bad thing if it leads to the party redefining its failing strategy, confirming independence as the only real source of hope for Scotland's future and re-imagining itself as the party with the firmest grasp on how modern Scotland sees itself. That need not require a change of leader – surely a dogfight involving Stephen Flynn and Kate Forbes would risk disaster – but Swinney needs to show he knows what needs to be done and has what it takes to do it.
Another election campaign which promises to put independence at its heart but in reality sidelines and then ignores it could be an almost fatal blow to the Yes campaign. The stakes are incredibly high.
Swinney is right to say general support for independence has to be converted into political action, but he needs to provide evidence that he and the SNP Government are up to that job and willing to take it on. We have heard that promise before and it has not been delivered.
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Before anything else, the SNP need to establish a route to independence. Increasing support in opinion polls is all very well but will not in itself bring it about. Only political determination will deliver that change and, like it or not, the SNP are the only party capable of doing that. But its tactics have to change.
If the Hamilton by-election result is proof of anything, it is that the gradualist approach has not worked and will not work in future.
That's not to say it has been a mistake. It has shown voters and the world we have exhausted every avenue available to us to find a way of allowing our democratic will to be expressed.
We have voted for a pro-independence majority of MSPs at every Scottish election since the 2014 referendum. In the 2015 UK election, we returned SNP MPs in all but three of Scotland's 59 seats.
However, in the years since the referendum, successive Westminster governments have been steadfast in their refusal to countenance a second independence referendum. There is no hope of that changing and there is no hero waiting in the wings to ride to Scotland's rescue.
Given all this, it is amazing recent opinion polls show 54% of Scots voters – rising to 60% if Reform UK come to power in Britain – still support the principle of independence. But they are denied the chance to vote for it, and there would in any case be little point in doing so without a mechanism for delivering it. The SNP simply cannot go into another Scottish election without a solution to this problem. Only a madman does the same thing over and over again while expecting different results. People will only really engage with the independence issue when they see a way of it becoming a reality.
I had my reservations over the plan laid out in The National earlier this week by the MSP James Dornan that the Scottish Government should hold its own referendum if the 2026 Scottish election returns a pro-indy majority of MSPs. I worry the Unionist side would refuse to take part. But then, they had to be dragged screaming and kicking into participating in the 2014 referendum by the prospect of a Yes win.
(Image: Danny Lawson)
Something new has to happen if there is a pro-indy majority at Holyrood next year, otherwise we will be ignored until Scots become convinced there's no point in voting for independence. Dornan's plan may not be perfect but it's the best I've heard yet. The SNP also need a plan to meet the huge, competing demands of running the country while at the same time campaigning to extricate Scotland from an unjust and unsuccessful Union.
Voting SNP in a Scottish election has three purposes. First, to have the country run in a better way than the opposition parties. Second, to instil confidence in the party's good governance and by extension in Scotland's ability to govern itself. Thirdly, to demonstrate the democratic support for independence.
Different wings of the party will attach a different importance to each of those purposes. The current arrangement has rendered the third irrelevant. No matter how strong support is for independence, Westminster has demonstrated its refusal to acknowledge it and there has been no international comment, far less outcry.
The onslaught of criticism of the SNP's performance in government, whether justified or not, has dented the party's reputation for good governance in the public's eye.
Given the media's role is to hold power to account, a reasonable level of criticism has to be expected. When combined with a determination by some to undermine the case for independence it can be overwhelming.
The Scottish Government has not been good enough at communicating its own successes. As Professor Danny Dorling of the University of Oxford told the Sunday National last weekend, policies such as the Scottish Child Payment have been almost entirely ignored by English political elites and are therefore under-appreciated in Scotland as well as in England. As well as that, policies such as free tuition fees and mitigations of damaging Westminster policies are now taken for granted.
All this leaves Scottish Government failures as the dominant narrative. That in turn demands the attention of government ministers, leaving little headroom for campaigning for independence.
The role of a minister for independence created by Humza Yousaf was at least an attempt to underline the central position of independence in the Scottish Government's agenda, even if it was largely unsuccessful. Its removal was one of the first acts by Swinney when he became First Minister.
It needs to be re-established and made more powerful and dynamic. It needs to stand as a rebuttal of the growing view that the SNP is paying lip service to independence while concentrating on its own electoral fortunes. It needs to show it is serious. And while we're at it, the case for independence needs refreshed and updated.
We are a long way from 2014. The independence campaign of that year was one of the most inspiring I've ever lived through. I'm one of the many independence supporters who spent the following 10 years trying – and failing – to recapture the exciting atmosphere of those days.
We instead need to update the case for independence to take into account major developments such as the cost of living crisis, attacks on devolution and the rise of Reform.
Independence has a direct relevance to all these issues but that needs to be constantly driven home. That's a job for the whole of the Yes movement – and indeed Yes organisations like Believe in Scotland have done much to encourage some new thinking. But it needs the SNP to provide the political clout to propel new ideas into the mainstream.
The Hamilton fall-out suggests there is some confusion over what the SNP now stands for. I'll admit to being one of those who argued that the big issues should be decided after independence. After all, what's the point in arguing that independence would put the big decisions into the hands of the Scottish people if they have all been taken before we even get independence? I've changed my mind. If we're asking people to vote for independence it seems only fair to provide some information on what values would guide the creation of that new country.
The SNP have always been a broad church, but there is a danger that they have now become too broad.
Personally, I want to live in a country which reflects left-wing, progressive beliefs. A country which seeks a major redistribution of wealth and an end to obscene profiteering by power companies.
A country leading the way on land reform, more humane policies on drugs, a protection of abortion rights and LGBTQ rights and a foreign policy brave enough to stand against genocide and fascism.
(Image: Colin Mearns)
Recent retreats on issues such as trans rights and worrying statements made by Forbes, particularly during the leadership contest which followed Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, have alienated many former supporters … and particularly young people whose support for independence had been strong.
I've talked to many who are no longer sure what kind of independent country the SNP envisages and are therefore less eager to vote for it. Modern divisions are too deep to leave room for a party that seeks to be all things to all people.
The self-reflection post-Hamilton need not lead to despair and division. It should lead to rebirth and recommitment. That ball is in the SNP's court. It's time to play it.