Indus waters: China must recognise India's rights before advocating for Pakistan

First Post

04-06-2025

Until recently, China always rejected the idea that lower riparian countries have any rights on a river. Now to defend Pakistan, China is saying the opposite read more
About a possible diversion of the Indus, Delhi should closely monitor the issue. Representational image. File image/PTI
After Pakistan-backed terrorists cowardly attacked innocent civilians, asking them their religion before killing them on April 22 in Pahalgam (Jammu and Kashmir), India decided to suspend the Indus Water Treaty and stop the flow of water to Pakistan. Since then, Pakistan has been nervous.
Later, Delhi announced its plans to build ten new hydropower projects in Ladakh; Islamabad immediately objected, as, for Pakistan, it raises 'serious concerns about violations of the Indus Waters Treaty and potential reduction of water flow into Pakistan'.
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The Indus
Spanning approximately 3,180 kilometres, the Indus originates from the Senge Khabab (the Mouth of the Lion) glacier at an altitude of 5,500 metres, near Mansarovar Lake in Tibet. The river flows through Western Tibet into Ladakh (crossing the border near Demchok in India). Later it meets tributaries like the Zanskar and Shyok before entering Pakistan and reaching the Arabian Sea. For India, while it is important for agriculture and hydroelectric power production, the Indus also symbolises the cradle of the ancient Indus-Saraswati civilisation.
The fact is that Islamabad calls Ladakh 'a disputed territory under UN resolution'.
Pakistani water expert Irshad H Abbasi in a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres twisted further the issue: 'The real aim behind these projects may be to provide heat and energy to Indian troops stationed in the glacial region of Siachen, while the deprived and marginalised local population in Ladakh continues to suffer in freezing conditions,' he said.
This shows the depth of Pakistan's dishonesty.
The Sutlej
But there is more. Take the Sutlej, stretching along some 1,450 kilometre it has its source from the Longchen Khabab ('the Mouth of the Elephant') glacier, near Rakshas Tal Lake, at an altitude of more than 5,000 metres.
On the Tibetan plateau, the Sutlej merges with streams like the Spiti River before flowing through Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh. Later it continues into Punjab, where it is a vital part of the Bhakra Dam hydroelectric and irrigation project. Finally, the Sutlej joins the Indus River in Pakistan.
Now, according to a report published in Business Today, geospatial researcher and former NASA station manager V Nityananda who conducted research using satellite data on the flow of the Sutlej River, data indicates a significant decline in the Sutlej River's water volume within India. 'The volume of water flowing into India from the Sutlej River has dropped by over 75 per cent. … The amount of water coming to India through the Sutlej has dipped from 8,000 gigalitres to just 2,000 gigalitres.'
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Nityananda believes that China is discreetly obstructing the flow of the Sutlej River into Indian territory.
The two major reasons behind this conclusion are, first, the decline could indicate that China has altered the river's course, and second, the decrease could be due to natural causes, such as climatic change. So far, there is no satellite proof of the first possibility; regarding the second with glaciers in the Himalayas rapidly melting, the river's flow should increase, not decrease.
However, the fact that China controls Tibet, from where major rivers such as the Indus and/or Sutlej originate, renders more complex the 'in-abeyance' status of the Indus Water Treaty between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan, of course, will bear long-term consequences, but concerns have started growing in India about the possibility of China deciding to obstruct the flow of the rivers originating in Tibet, though only a small percentage of the water in the Indus (10-15 per cent) and Sutlej (20 per cent) have their origin on the Tibetan plateau.
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Of course, technically, Beijing can stop the water flow of these rivers originating in Tibet. China has built small hydroelectric plants, particularly on the Senge Tsangpo (near Tashigang), in Gar (Shiquanhe) town, or a barrage on the Tsamda Gorge on the Sutlej. Through these structures, China could potentially control the water flow, reduce it, stop it or alter the course of the rivers.
There have been instances where China has used water as a geopolitical tool. In 2004, China would have created an artificial lake on the Pareechu River, a tributary of the Sutlej, raising fears in India of a potential 'water bomb'. Later, China accepted to share data on the flow of the river, reducing the tensions … for some time.
India and China currently have hydrological data-sharing agreements for the Sutlej and Brahmaputra rivers, signed between 2002 and 2018. These agreements cover data exchange during the flood season (June–October) and have moreover expired in 2022. However, there is no formal water-sharing treaty between the two nations, giving China the possibility to change the status quo of the rivers' flow.
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During the 23rd Meeting of the Special Representatives of India and China on December 18, 2024, in Beijing, the SRs 'provided positive directions for cross-border cooperation and exchanges, including resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, data sharing on trans-border rivers and border trade.'
But no data has yet been 'shared' since 2022.
The Indus Diversion
In 2015 the BBC reported: 'China inaugurated one of the biggest engineering projects of all time: the South-North Water Diversion, a £48 billion, 2,400 km network of canals and tunnels, designed to divert 44.8 billion cubic metres of water annually from China's humid south to its parched, industrialised north.'
Around that same time, some researchers in China thought of something else, a smaller 'pilot' project: to divert the Indus River towards Xinjiang.
The details were posted on a Chinese blog, ScienceNet.cn (Chinese: 科学网). According to Wikipedia: 'ScienceNet.cn is a science virtual community and science blog. It is launched by Science Times Media Group (STMG) and supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.' In 2015, it had a total of 5,553 users (scientists and graduate students).
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A blogger quoted Chinese researchers who argued that other planned 'diversions' required extremely complicated construction plans, large investments, long building periods and faced a lot of engineering problems due to the complexity of the issues involved. It makes these projects difficult to undertake, while a small-scale, low-investment and quickly realisable scheme could be an ideal pilot project.
They proposed an easy one: it would involve the diversion by gravity of the waters from the Indus River in Western Tibet towards the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang; they called it 'the South Western section of the Western Route Project'.
The text described the preliminary survey of the south-western part of the Western Route Project and the size of the diversion scheme; it is followed by a brief depiction of China's northwest after the transfer of the Indus' water.
The main conclusion was that the diversion would help maintain long-term political stability in Xinjiang. The paper suggested deepening the research before an early implementation of the South Western section.
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One of the benefits would be that a new oasis could in turn 'curb global warming' [sic]. If the global warming argument is indeed correct, say the 'scientists', 'the South Western section could increase the rainfall in China; this countermeasure could help curb global warming for the entire humanity. China could then get a substantial increase in the local precipitation; the desert in northwest [Xinjiang] would disappear; the desert would become an oasis which would be able to grow food and have power plants; humans would be able to reduce the need for fossil fuels; after additional diversion, the oasis would absorb large amounts of greenhouse gases each year; thus, it would achieve the goal of curbing global warming.'
What an argument! But that is not all: 'China's population distribution is unbalanced; the development gap between China and western regions and other regions is too large; it has been extremely detrimental to the country's development.'
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And now the cherry on the cake: 'The diversion could strengthen China's actual control of Aksai Chin and help to resolve the territorial dispute. The Sino-Indian border has not been formally delimited in the Aksai Chin and Pangong Lake areas; there are some territorial disputes [with India]. The water diversion project, through Aksai Chin, could help the actual control of this region; the implementation of the project could also help to resolve the territorial dispute [with India].'
The Chinese social media are already abuzz with threats from China that it could use its upstream location (vis-à-vis India) to help Pakistan, its all-weather friend.
It is an interesting development because, until recently, China always rejected the idea that lower riparian countries have any rights on a river. Now in order to defend Pakistan, China is saying the opposite: India can't change the status of the Indus Water Treaty without facing consequences.
About a possible diversion of the Indus, Delhi should closely monitor the issue.
The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.