Iran's Latest Nuclear Breakout
President Trump has 'given Iran every opportunity,' Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Thursday. He's right, and so has the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations inspectors who have spent 20 years trying to get answers from Iran on its secret nuclear activity. On Thursday Iran's time ran out with the IAEA.
The IAEA board of governors passed a resolution finding Iran in noncompliance with its Safeguards Agreement, a crucial part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that has done much to stop the spread and use of nuclear weapons. Treaties are no substitute for American deterrent power, but the NPT has been among the more successful.
In reply Iran announced a major expansion of its nuclear-breakout capability—revealing more NPT violations—which would make it harder to detect or stop an Iranian move to enrich uranium to weapons-grade. Tehran is calling the world's bluff on whether it takes non-proliferation seriously.
The IAEA finds that Iran has been hiding nuclear material. Accordingly, 'the Agency is not able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material required to be safeguarded under the Agreement to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices,' it writes.
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Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Israel's Strikes on Iran Trigger Elevated Shipping Risks Across Middle East
Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities early Friday morning have prompted the U.K. and Greece to advise their merchant shipping fleets on taking a more cautious approach to sailing certain trade bottlenecks in the Middle East. According to a report from Reuters sharing information from the U.K.'s Department for Transport, all U.K.-flagged vessels, which include ships registered under the flags of Gibraltar and Bermuda, were advised to avoid sailing through the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. More from Sourcing Journal China-to-US Freight Rates 'No Longer Surging'-Is it All Downhill from Here? As Houthis Warn of 'War' Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Red Sea Shipping Still Stagnant USTR Eases Port Fees for Foreign Vehicle Carriers, Scraps LNG Export Mandate If transiting these areas, vessels must adhere to their highest level of security measures and limit the number of crew on deck during transits, said the advisory. The Union of Greek Shipowners, which represent more than 60 percent of the E.U. controlled merchant fleet, urged shipowners to send details of their vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz to Greece's maritime ministry, Reuters said. The Strait of Hormuz flows into the Persian Gulf, with roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply passing through, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The pre-emptive airstrikes bring speculation as to the immediate future of Red Sea shipping, particularly since the Iran-aligned Houthi militant group responsible for attacks in the waterway have been in direct conflict with Israel in recent months. Ahead of Friday's attacks, the Yemen-based Houthis had warned both Israel and the U.S. that any escalation against Iran would 'drag the entire region into the abyss of war.' The militants had conducted drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels traveling through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait starting in late 2023, which lasted throughout 2024. The U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization said it began the attacks in support of Palestinians in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. Overall, the Houthis conducted more than 130 attacks on commercial vessels in that time frame, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a crisis monitoring organization. The onslaught resulted in container shipping firms mostly abandoning the Suez Canal, instead committing to rerouting their ships around southern Africa's Cape of Good Hope. The mass diversions lengthened East-to-West ocean shipping times by roughly one-to-two weeks. Although the Houthis have not conducted any attacks in the Red Sea in 2025, most of the major ocean carriers have refused to return to the trade artery due to a lack of safety guarantees. A circular shared by maritime security firm Ambrey early Friday said there was no impact to shipping at the time of the report. The firm warned of heightened risk to Israel-affiliated shipping in the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, similar to a warning sent out by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office of the Royal Navy ahead of the Israeli airstrikes. For safety precautions, Ambrey recommended thorough affiliation checks for vessels planning to transit through the affected regions. Vessels with strong affiliations to Israel are advised to avoid these areas where possible. With tensions continuing to escalate in the Middle East amid Israel's ongoing military campaign in Gaza, roughly 200 protesters occupied the lobby of Maersk's Manhattan headquarters on Wednesday morning. The demonstration occurred in protest of the container shipping giant's transport of military equipment to Israel, namely the reported shipping of F-35 fighter jet parts. Maersk has stated that while it carries military equipment to Israel, it does not transport weapons or ammunition to the area, or any other conflict zones. Earlier this year, the company's shareholders voted against a proposal to halt shipments of arms to Israel on the grounds that premise of the proposal was incorrect. Members of the protesting group, which was organized by the Palestinian Youth Movement and Jewish Voice for Peace, refused to move from the lobby and chanted phrases like 'Maersk, Maersk, drop the cargo, we demand an arms embargo.' The demonstrators also demanded that more food and aid be sent to Gaza. Members of the NYPD's strategic response group moved in after about an hour and cuffed protesters. At least 50 had been taken into custody by the time the protest ended. The Manhattan demonstration follows a series of protests in major cities like Copenhagen, Paris and Berlin. Last month, more than 50 activists including Greta Thunberg held a demonstration in the Copenhagen office of Maersk's tankers division in protest of the equipment shipments, as well as the carrier's overall carbon emissions. Thunberg and a group of other activists on a Gaza-bound flotilla were later detained by Israeli officials after attempting to bring food and humanitarian aid to the region. The detainees were brought to Israel before they returned to their home countries.
The Hill
36 minutes ago
- The Hill
Unrest in the Middle East threatens to send some prices higher
Israel's attack on Iran Friday has catapulted their long-running conflict into what could become a wider, more dangerous regional war and potentially drive prices higher for both businesses and households. Oil and gold surged and the dollar rose as markets retreated, signaling a flight to investments perceived as more safe. After years of sky-high inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans have become increasingly leery about the economy this year due to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though the impact so far has been muted. The latest escalation in the Middle East has the potential to cause widespread price increases that could set consumers back again. Here's a look at some of the sectors that could face an outsized impact from the escalation in the Middle East, and what that might mean for consumers. Oil prices surged Friday to their biggest gain since the onset of Russia's war on Ukraine began more than three years ago. If or when Israel's attack on Iran could impact gas prices, which have been in decline for nearly a year, isn't entirely clear. Iran is one of the world's major producers of oil, though sanctions by Western countries have limited its sales. If a wider war erupts, it could significantly slow or stop the flow of Iran's oil to its customers. Energy prices have been held in check this year because production has remained relatively high, and demand for it low. A widening conflict could tilt that balance. 'The loss of this export supply would wipe out the surplus that was expected in the fourth quarter of this year,' analysts for ING wrote in a note to clients. In the past, conflicts in the Middle East have sent energy price soaring for extended periods but in recent years, because of the huge supply of oil, those spikes have been more fleeting. Earlier this month, the countries in the OPEC+ alliance decided to increase production again, which often pushes crude prices down. They hit a four-year low in early May. That usually means cheaper gas, of which there is currently a surplus. According to the auto club organization AAA, the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. on Friday was $3.13 per gallon, down from $3.46 a year ago. Shipping costs were already on the rise for a number of reasons. Cargo is being rerouted around the Red Sea where the U.S. began conducting air strikes on Yemen's Houthis, the Iran-backed rebels who were attacking ships on what is a vital global trade route. And this year, companies have scrambled to import as many goods as possible before Trump's tariffs kicked in, pushing demand, and prices to ship, higher. The Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of dry bulk shipping demand that tacks the movement of coal, iron ore, grains and more, is hitting eight-month highs. The window for companies seeking to ship goods before the year's end is coming to a close this month. A widening conflict in the Middle East would only drive prices higher as those companies jostle to get goods from overseas as geopolitical tensions in the region rise. Shares of ocean shipping companies like Teekay and Frontline rose sharply following Israel's attack. Higher energy prices can lead to elevated costs for a wide range of products because just about everything is made and transported using oil or natural gas. Government data this week revealed that Trump's tariffs have yet to cause a broader rise in inflation. Still, many companies have announced price hikes due to the tariffs. Walmart has already raised prices on some goods and said it will do so again as the back-to-school shopping season begins. J.M. Smucker, largely due to the impact of tariffs on coffee from Brazil and Vietnam, said it's also raised prices and will do so again. Combined with the higher shipping and production costs that could result from the escalated Middle East conflict, prices will almost certainly rise further, analysts say. 'Inventory buffers may have allowed firms to put off decisions about raising prices, but that won't be the case for much longer,' the ING analysts said. 'We expect to see bigger spikes in the month-on-month inflation figures through the summer,' they added, noting that The Fed's recent Beige Book cited widespread reports of aggressive price hikes already in the pipeline. Federal Reserve officials meet next week to make their next interest rate decision, and the vast majority of economists still think the U.S. central bank will leave its benchmark rate where it is for the fourth straight time. The Fed has been juggling its dual mandate of supporting the labor market while keeping inflation at bay. That goal may become increasingly difficult to achieve if prices for gas, food and other essential rise due to the Israel-Iran conflict. If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the U.S. Shares of tech companies and retailers were among the biggest decliners Friday. Perhaps contrary to conventional wisdom, one cascading effect of the heightened Middle East tension may be that the cost of traveling, even if fuel prices rise, will come down. Airlines have been downgrading their travel forecasts as businesses and families tighten their travel budgets in anticipation of tariff-related price hikes. Several major air disasters also have made some wary of getting on a plane. Most major U.S. airlines have said they plan to reduce their scheduled domestic flights this summer, citing an ebb in economy passengers booking leisure trips. Last month, Bank of America reported that its credit card customers were spending less on flights and lodging. And because of the Trump tariff wars, the dollar has fallen almost 10% this year when measured against a basket of foreign currencies, making it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad due to unfavorable exchange rates. On Friday, shares of major U.S. airlines were in sharp retreat.
Washington Post
36 minutes ago
- Washington Post
How Mossad covertly prepared Israel's attack from deep inside Iran
By the time Israeli aircraft were streaking across the sky toward nuclear and military sites in Iran on Friday, secret commando teams, swarms of armed drones and explosives concealed in ordinary vehicles were emerging from hiding deep inside Iran and making their way toward slumbering targets. Among the targets were military commanders, nuclear scientists and leaders of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — many of them 'still in their beds, in their homes,' according to a senior Israeli security official with direct knowledge of the operation who provided previously unpublished details to The Washington Post.
