
Joni Ernst's ‘Well, we all are going to die,' and the GOP's flippant defenses of Trump's agenda
One of the reasons politicians don't often engage in massive overhauls of the American economy is that it's very difficult to defend a massive overhaul of the American economy. However good any given plan is, it often produces losers and – even in the best of cases – some short-term pain.
And repeatedly now as President Donald Trump has launched multiple massive overhauls, prominent Republicans have learned that the hard way.
Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa is the most recent.
Appearing at a town hall on Friday, Ernst was pressed on cuts to Medicaid – the health care program for low-income Americans – in House Republicans' budget plan. One audience member shouted that 'people will die.'
The usual politician thing would have been to take issue with that premise – or to, as other Republicans have strained to do, cast the Medicaid cuts as merely cutting waste and abuse. (That's not the full story, of course; the Congressional Budget Office recently projected that House Republicans' changes to Medicaid, including work requirements for some recipients, would leave 7.6 million Americans uninsured by 2034.)
But Ernst decided to go in a different direction.
'Well, we all are going to die,' said Ernst, who's facing reelection in 2026.
When hostile portions of the crowd balked at the response, she said: 'For heaven's sakes, folks.'
The senator and her office argued Friday that Republicans are in fact trying to 'strengthen' Medicaid. A spokesman said: 'There's only two certainties in life: death and taxes, and she's working to ease the burden of both by fighting to keep more of Iowans' hard-earned tax dollars in their own pockets and ensuring their benefits are protected from waste, fraud, and abuse.'
Ernst in her remarks went on to accuse her critics of not wanting to 'listen to me when I say that we are going to focus on those that are most vulnerable. Those that meet the eligibility requirements for Medicaid, we will protect … them.'
As a contrast, she cited an oft-invoked GOP claim that 1.4 million undocumented immigrants are receiving Medicaid benefits. But that's not actually what the CBO estimate says – nor does it account for the other millions of people the CBO says would lose insurance.
In other words, however bad Ernst's answer was, it might just be that there's not a good answer to be given. Republicans needed to cut spending to pay for Trump's tax cuts, and it's hard to cut enough unless you cut entitlements. It's a political minefield that even some Trump allies like Steve Bannon have warned their party about.
And indeed, Democrats quickly leapt to highlight Ernst as the epitome of an uncaring, Medicaid-busting Republican.
But Ernst is not the first to wander into this kind of territory. Repeatedly in recent weeks, prominent Republicans who have been asked to account for the pains caused by Trump's bold plans have stumbled into similar territory.
Trump himself has repeatedly talked about how the price increases created by his tariffs might mean people have to buy fewer dolls for little girls.
'You know, someone said, 'Oh, the shelves, they're going to be open,'' Trump said. 'Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.'
Trump said on the campaign trail that foreign countries would pay the extra cost of the tariffs, not consumers.
Conservative Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro called Trump's comments 'a tremendous commercial for Democrats' and urged Trump to avoid language that minimized the impacts of inflation.
Back in March, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick addressed the administration's chaotic changes to the Social Security system by claiming that only 'fraudsters' would complain about missing a Social Security check. He pointed to his own mother-in-law. (The administration has pursued a series of sometimes halting changes to the Social Security system, including limiting claims to in-person rather than over the phone – something it later walked back – and cutting staff.)
'Let's say Social Security didn't send out their checks this month. My mother-in-law, who's 94 – she wouldn't call and complain,' Lutnick said. He added: 'She just wouldn't. She'd think something got messed up, and she'll get it next month. A fraudster always makes the loudest noise – screaming, yelling and complaining.'
It's logical to assume that Lutnick's mother-in-law wouldn't complain, given her son-in-law is a billionaire. But according to the Social Security Administration, more than 1 in 10 seniors rely on the program for at least 90% of their income.
Are any of these game-changing gaffes? Not necessarily. But they are certainly fodder for Democrats to argue that Trump is pursuing a rather haphazard and callous overhaul of the American economy. It's the kind of thing Bannon warns about in cautioning Republicans against Medicaid cuts. There just aren't many good ways to defend millions of poor people being projected to lose their health insurance.
And if the early evidence is any indication, it's going to result in plenty of awkward defenses in the future.
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Vox
29 minutes ago
- Vox
The big, bad bond market could derail Trump's big, beautiful bill
is a senior correspondent and head writer for Vox's Future Perfect section and has worked at Vox since 2014. He is particularly interested in global health and pandemic prevention, anti-poverty efforts, economic policy and theory, and conflicts about the right way to do philanthropy. To pass a law in the United States, you need to jump through a lot of hurdles. A bill has to first clear a committee in the House or Senate. (In the case of Republicans' tax legislation this year, its components had to clear 11 different committees.) The House Rules Committee has to agree for it to come to the floor for a vote. It has to pass that vote. In the Senate, it has to get 60 votes to beat a potential filibuster, or else obey a set of byzantine rules allowing it to pass with a simple majority. But another entity gets a vote, an entity not mentioned in the Constitution or in congressional rules or even physically located in Washington, DC. That entity is the bond market, and right now, it is very pissed. Currently, the US makes up for any budget deficits it incurs by issuing bonds of various durations to cover the difference. It auctions those bonds — essentially IOUs issued by the Treasury Department — on the open market, where investors (banks, hedge funds, foreign central banks, pension funds, etc.) can bid on them. To get them to bid, the US has to pay interest on the bond. And when the US borrows a lot, and especially if its fiscal policy indicates that the country may reach a point where it can't pay back what it owes, investors will demand to receive more interest to compensate for the risk of default. That means the US has to pay more every year to service its past debt, and those payments in turn become future debt. If the interest they demand is high enough, the result can be an economic downturn, an upward debt spiral, or both. While politicians pay attention to all kinds of economic indicators, from the unemployment rate to the stock market, the bond market is a different and more powerful animal. The most famous quote about the bond market's power comes from former Bill Clinton adviser James Carville: 'I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.' History is littered with cases of governments that were forced to abandon policies — or that even fell from power — because the bond market revolted. Just a few years ago in the UK, a mass sell-off by currency and bond traders forced the Tory government to abandon its plans for a massive deficit-ballooning tax cut and axe Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, before then-Prime Minister Liz Truss herself was forced to resign after just 45 days in office. Banks like Citigroup were openly declaring that unless the UK got a different prime minister, the markets would continue to punish it. That is power. Now, Congress is weighing a reconciliation bill that would increase the deficit by at least $3 trillion over 10 years, and possibly closer to $5 trillion if some of its temporary components become permanent, as seems likely. This is a big increase in America's already substantial debt burden and markets are responding accordingly. Interest rates are heading higher, especially once you adjust for inflation. Countries once infamous for fiscal mismanagement — Greece, Spain, even Italy — can now borrow more cheaply than the United States can. The US is not the UK; the bond market cannot depose a president the way it can a prime minister, simply because prime ministers are far easier to swap out. But that doesn't mean that the bond market is powerless over US policy. It has the ability to make this tax bill much, much more costly for the US government and economy, and that ability could be decisive in shaping where the legislation goes from here. The bond market is mad about the debt The US issues a lot of different kinds of debt, but the kind you should pay closest attention to are 10-year bonds. These reflect the market's views on the medium- to long-run trajectory of the government and economy, whereas 30-day or six-month bonds are much shorter-run indicators. The interest rate that's most informative about government policy and long-run prospects is the 'real' rate, adjusted for inflation. If inflation is 4 percent, investors will probably add about 4 percentage points to the real interest rate to make sure their investment doesn't erode in value. The real rate thus reflects how much they expect to earn for essentially lending money to the US government in addition to just keeping up with overall prices. Here's the 10-year, adjusting for inflation, since the start of President Donald Trump's first term: Interest rates have been rising since 2022 or so. FRED In the aftermath of Covid, rates actually went negative after taking inflation into account. This is what's sometimes called the 'flight to safety': In times of crisis, investors often move away from risky assets like stocks and toward reliable, predictable ones, like US government bonds. That drives interest rates down, sometimes even below inflation. But since 2023 or so, rates have been much higher. There's a saying, popularized by economist Scott Sumner, that one should 'never reason from a price change': Changes in the Treasury interest rate (or the price of borrowing) could be from any number of factors, so it's too simplistic to look at what happened and say 'investors decided the US government became a riskier bet.' The Logoff The email you need to stay informed about Trump — without letting the news take over your life, from senior editor Patrick Reis. Email (required) Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. That said, when Fed economists analyzed the spike that occurred in 2023, they concluded the spike in rates was indeed due to investors reacting to changing economic conditions: The US was issuing more debt, the Federal Reserve was tightening to try to control inflation, and future economic growth in the US was looking sluggish. Other observers in the bond market have been sounding alarms, mostly citing excessive US borrowing. In 2023, Fitch, one of the three big credit rating agencies that issues risk evaluations of bonds, downgraded US debt, which previously had a perfect AAA rating. On May 16 of this year, Moody's, another of the three, followed suit, amid tax cut negotiations in Congress. Standard & Poor's, the third rater, had already downgraded the US after the 2011 debt ceiling fight, meaning there now isn't a single rating agency giving US debt top marks. As the 2023 downgrade indicates, this change isn't entirely due to Trump. Covid did a number on the US debt picture, with trillions of dollars in relief measures passed and implemented, and many months of lower revenues due to the 2020 recession. But in January, as Trump prepared to return to the White House, bond analysts were already forecasting higher rates, noting his penchant for tax cuts and lack of seriousness about deficits. On May 20, amid the tax fight in Congress, a batch of 20-year government bonds had trouble selling at auction, sending rates flying higher still. The bond market, it is fair to say, is not pleased with the direction this administration is going. High interest rates could hurt…real bad The nominal (that is, not adjusted for inflation) 10-year Treasury rate has grown from lows of around 3.6 percent in September to above 4.4 percent now. That, on its own, might not sound like a lot: only a 0.8-point increase? But if you apply even a small increase in interest costs to the tens of trillions of dollars in debt the US government has outstanding, you get a very big number. Case in point: The Congressional Budget Office, as it evaluates Trump and Republicans' tax and spending proposals, is assuming 10-year interest rates of 4.1 percent this year, falling to 3.8 percent over time. What if, instead, rates stayed higher — at 4.4 percent, say? Even that modest-sounding change would cost the US government $1.8 trillion over the next decade, per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; for scale, that's about what Trump's more extreme tariff plans are projected to bring in. How persistently high interest rates would affect federal interest payments over the next 10 years. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget A bond market reaction that persistently pushes up rates like this could turn a 'merely' $3.1 trillion bill into a $5 trillion bill, raising the price tag by nearly 60 percent, without a single additional dollar in tax cuts or spending. By 2035, the US would be spending $2.1 trillion a year on interest, more than on defense or on Social Security, or on Medicare — some of the biggest portions of the federal budget. That constrains politicians in both parties quite severely. It makes it harder for Republicans to pass the tax cuts they want, because they now are meaningfully more expensive. Same goes for any deficit-financed spending that Democrats may want. Some politicians might say, 'Who cares? Voters care more about tax cuts than the deficit. Why should it matter to me if some number labeled 'deficit' goes up?' It may be true that voters can't easily parse the difference between a $1 and $2 trillion deficit. But they can definitely tell when things in their daily lives get more expensive, and higher interest costs will make everything more expensive. Thirty-year mortgage interest rates move in almost perfect tandem with long-term government bonds, as this chart from the Bipartisan Policy Center shows: Mortgage interest rates generally track movements in the interest rate on US government bonds. Bipartisan Policy Center This makes sense, if you think about it. When a bank issues a mortgage (or buys one from an issuer), it's lending money on a long-term basis in exchange for regular interest payments. That's exactly what an investor does when they buy a long-term government bond. Because mortgage borrowers (that is, homeowners) are typically considered riskier than the US government, they pay somewhat higher rates, but the two rates move together. If the US government starts paying more interest, mortgage borrowers will have to pay more interest too, so that banks lend to them rather than the federal government. That means that if the bond market sends rates on US debt higher, it's not just more expensive for the government; it's more expensive for anyone who borrows. That means homeowners with mortgages, anyone with credit card debt, anyone with a car loan, anyone taking a student loan, and, perhaps most importantly, businesses taking out loans to build factories or invest in research. Good luck getting a US manufacturing renaissance going with persistently high interest rates driven by high deficits. The odds are still high that Congress passes some kind of deficit-exploding tax bill. The House passed its version by a single vote, and while some Republican senators have voiced complaints, Republicans' 53-vote majority there means they can afford a few defectors and still pass something. Many of the Trump tax cuts passed in 2017 are set to expire next year, and the political urge to avoid a sudden spike in taxes will probably overwhelm whatever pressure the bond market brings to bear. The bond market is powerful, but Republican hatred of taxes may be more powerful. But important Republican policymakers are paying attention. House Budget committee chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) hinted to Politico's Victoria Guida that he thinks the markets may force more budget cuts than his party is inclined to support, saying, 'If the bond markets don't think we're serious, I'm not sure it will matter what we do, because they're going to dictate the terms.' And senators needed to get the package to the president's desk are watching too. 'Have you been watching what the bond markets are doing in relation to the one big, beautiful bill?' Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) asked. 'They're not thinking it's a very big, beautiful bill.'


Fox News
29 minutes ago
- Fox News
What's Ahead For The President's Reconciliation Bill
The House of Representatives' budget reconciliation plan, backed by President Trump, is headed to the Senate. The bill touched on nearly every aspect of President Trump's agenda, which Senate Leader John Thune hopes to have passed by July 4, 2025. The budget bill passed through the House with a slim majority, which concerns some Americans that it may face restraint in the Senate. U.S. Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) joins the Rundown to discuss the Senate's work on President Trump's reconciliation bill and Republicans' efforts to cut taxes, reduce spending, and create more U.S. jobs. She also describes her own bipartisan bill, which aims to improve childcare affordability and help parents re-enter the workforce. Not many people can say they've climbed to the top of Mount Everest, but FOX News Correspondent Mike Tobin can. Making it to the top is extremely dangerous and requires peak physical abilities. Mike joins the podcast to discuss the accomplishment, why he decided to climb Mount Everest, and what it was like to reach the top. Plus, commentary from Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, Chuck DeVore. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit

Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Making Canada 51st state is a great idea, but not for reason Trump thinks
President Donald Trump keeps blathering on about making Canada the 51st state. I'm for it. With a population of about 40 million that would equal about 55 congressional seats. Guess what? The Republicans would end up in a perpetual minority in the House. And they would have a tough time ever winning the presidency again. How about single-payer health care for all of us? How about more reasonable gun laws? How about some mandated minimal annual leave? How about minimal parental leave? Or a higher minimum wage? The list could go on. So let's congratulate Trump for coming up with a brilliant idea. Sorry, Canadians, but isn't it time you take one for the planet? George Wagner, Milwaukee Letters: Cudahy Farms offers dense urban development that is environmentally friendly Opinion: Here's what readers had to say about wake-enhanced boating on Wisconsin lakes Here are some tips to get your views shared with your friends, family, neighbors and across our state: Please include your name, street address and daytime phone. Generally, we limit letters to 200 words. Cite sources of where you found information or the article that prompted your letter. Be civil and constructive, especially when criticizing. Avoid ad hominem attacks, take issue with a position, not a person. We cannot acknowledge receipt of submissions. We don't publish poetry, anonymous or open letters. Each writer is limited to one published letter every two months. All letters are subject to editing. Write: Letters to the editor, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 330 E. Kilbourn Avenue, Suite 500, Milwaukee, WI, 53202. Fax: (414)-223-5444. E-mail: jsedit@ or submit using the form that can be found on the on the bottom of this page. This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Adding Canada would mean GOP could never control US House | Letters