NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan odds, expert predictions for FireKeepers Casino 400
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan this weekend for the FireKeepers Casino 400. The Michigan track draws plenty of racing pride and has real potential this year for a long shot to finish first. The usual suspects are favored in the odds, but our experts have some insight into other drivers who could claim their first win of the year.
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As we do each week, we're bringing our burning questions about NASCAR controversies, power players and the race ahead to our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
Take it away, guys!
OK, tell us about the in-season tournament and why Jeff was railing against the seeding system on Tuesday. We haven't touched on it much this year, and it's almost time! Should we be getting excited about this yet?
Jeff: Save your excitement for a few more weeks, but I'm definitely looking forward to it when the time comes. Basically, NASCAR is taking the top 32 drivers in points and doing a single-elimination, March Madness-style bracket over five races. It's head-to-head matchups between drivers that will play out in each race (1 vs. 32, 2 vs. 31, etc.).
My beef with it is how they're doing the seeding. Instead of doing it in the order of point standings, NASCAR is going to take a driver's top finish over the next three weeks and seed the drivers based on that. So the winner of the Mexico City road course is going to be a guaranteed top-three seed (depending on tiebreakers) while some big-name driver who has three bad races might be a seed in the high 20s or worse. That's going to confuse casual bettors, which is the whole point of this thing in the first place. Imagine seeing Kyle Larson as a No. 27 seed heavily favored in the odds against AJ Allmendinger as a No. 6 seed; is it really an 'upset' if Larson wins that first-round matchup? Of course not. Other than that, though, it should be a fun, breezy talking point during the often-dry summer months.
Jordan: It's a fun concept that should hopefully add some intrigue during a time in the season that sometimes needs more of it. Heightening the novelty is the fact that the five tracks comprising the tournament include a superspeedway, two road/street courses and one of the most iconic tracks in all of motorsports. However, as Jeff noted, the only hangup with all this is how the seeding is determined, as it's not nearly as straightforward as it should be, potentially turning off the casual fans NASCAR hopes to attract. This may be one of those things where it takes a year to work out all the kinks before taking off in Year 2.
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You've been covering Carson Hocevar, who almost won last week. How long until the 22-year-old gets his first Cup win? What's his biggest weakness/obstacle at this point? Is his perceived aggressiveness on the track a pro or a con?
Jeff: It sure seems like Hocevar and Spire are on the doorstep of something special. I wrote a profile of Hocevar this week that I'd love for you to check out, as he has quite a unique personality and doesn't run from his roots as a true NASCAR fan. But he's also obviously run afoul of many veteran drivers, who keep calling him out and getting angry with him, and it's seemingly going to come back to bite him at some point. That's not unusual for a young driver who bursts onto the NASCAR scene, though; veterans often try to get a brash new driver to adapt to the series' on-track code (which is ever-evolving), and sometimes it can result in fireworks. Overall, though, the saying in the garage is it's easier to pull the reins on a fast driver than to try and make a slow driver go faster.
Jordan: Certainly feels like it could happen soon, especially if Spire Motorsports can continue fielding fast racecars as it's been doing on a seemingly near-weekly basis. And this week's race at Michigan, Hocevar's home track, represents a good place for him to get that first W, as it shares similar characteristics with Nashville and Charlotte, sites of the previous two races, where Hocevar was in contention for the victory.
You talked a bit in our preview last week about Bubba Wallace's recent tough trend. What does he need to do to start improving? What's off for him, after what felt like an optimistic start?
Jeff: He rebounded to a top-10 finish last week at Nashville, so that's progress. Honestly, at this point, he just needs to string together some good finishes, especially with the road course season coming up (which hasn't been his strong suit, although he's improved lately). He's still inside the playoff picture, just not quite as securely as before. Michigan is a place that has fit him well before, so he's very capable of leaving with back-to-back top-10 runs that would get his season back on track.
Jordan: Maintaining track position up front and avoiding miscues are the two areas Wallace's No. 23 needs to improve upon. During his three-race stretch of poor finishes, issues on pit road cost Wallace several positions, dropping him back in the field and making him vulnerable to getting swept in crashes, which is exactly what happened. At Nashville, Wallace again had an issue on pit road — he was penalized for speeding — but he was able to rally back to finish inside the top 10. He's a winning driver and his team is capable, and Michigan is a track where he's nearly won previously, so a mistake-free race on Sunday could manifest into Wallace getting his third career win.
Who is your favorite to win this week? Who does the track advantage?
Jeff: This is NASCAR's only remaining two-mile oval (RIP Fontana, sniff sniff) and is the fastest track in the Cup Series. Teams will need to bring their best stuff, get their engines tuned up and nail their setups to rip around Michigan. There's a lot of manufacturer pride racing near Detroit, but it's mostly been a Ford show. Until Tyler Reddick and his Toyota won last season, Ford had won nine straight Michigan races (nine!). Chevrolet hasn't won a Michigan race since 2017, and Hendrick Motorsports hasn't won there since 2014. How crazy is that?
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Anyway, I'll be honest: For some reason, I'm thinking we could see RFK Racing show up with some speed this week, and they're not even close to the favorites. Chris Buescher is +2000, and Brad Keselowski is +2500. And both drivers rank in the top three for average finish at Michigan in the three Next Gen races there. Hmm…
Jordan: Ford has typically dominated races here in recent years, and Sunday feels no different, especially with how strong Team Penske has performed on intermediate tracks this season. Any one of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric or Josh Berry could win, and it would in no way be a surprise. But among this quartet, Blaney is the pick. His consistent speed has been impressive, and Michigan, with its tendency for long green-flag runs, favors his driving style, where he is often the fastest over such runs. Look for Blaney to get his second win in as many weeks.
Who is a long shot you like?
Jeff: Speaking of RFK, Ryan Preece is +6000. Heck, Austin Cindric is +6000 (what??). And so is Erik Jones, who has shown strength at Michigan. They are all +190 to secure a top-10 finish, so maybe you could sprinkle a bit there and see if you end up getting two of the three correct.
Jordan: Chris Buescher checks a lot of boxes. He drives a Ford (winner of nine of the past 10 races here) and has a Michigan win on his resume. His smooth driving style is a good fit here, where managing pace goes a long way to achieving success. And he's listed as high as +2200 on some boards, which means he offers a good return if he can find victory lane on Sunday.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Tyler Reddick, who won at Michigan last year: Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
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