Would it do the Tories any favours to bring back Boris Johnson?
Having endured their worst general election performance ever, followed by a similar humiliation in the local elections and plumbing fresh lows in the opinion polls, how long will it be before the Tories turn to their most self-destructive habit – blind panic? Given the general paucity of talent in what remains of the parliamentary party, there are even a few murmurs, again, about bringing back Boris Johnson. That must count as desperation, and the old rascal could easily make things worse for them...
Why bring back Boris?
Aside from the desperate panic, many Tories still hold fond memories of his undoubted electoral prowess, albeit that it lies firmly in the past. A full listing would have to include his improbable election as mayor of London in 2008, and subsequent re-election; the 2016 Brexit referendum; and the 2019 general election, which yielded the best parliamentary result since 1987 and the highest Tory vote share since 1979.
So there are warm feelings about the glory days, and a probably vain hope that he and he alone can magically recreate that campaigning success. The strange resurrection of Donald Trump in the United States has also stimulated thoughts of a Johnson return. If he can do it, why not Boris?
Why not Boris?
Well, there's also the indelible memory of Partygate, assorted sleaze stories, chaos, Dominic Cummings, wallpapergate, broken promises on levelling up, the collapse of his government beneath him, the unlawful prorogation of parliament, misleading the late Queen, and being found to have lied to the House of Commons, for which he was sanctioned.
It's also true that by the time his position was becoming untenable in 2022, Johnson was losing local elections and parliamentary by-elections, and his poll ratings were slipping badly. If he couldn't win elections, he was of no further use and had to go. His most grievous disservice to the nation was in making sure that Liz Truss rather than Rishi Sunak succeeded him – she was calculated to make him look good by comparison.
Could be elected leader immediately?
No. He's not an MP, so not eligible.
Could be become an MP?
The classic method, used by Johnson twice before, is to find a safe Tory seat to fight at the next general election. Or somehow exploit or engineer such an opportunity sooner, in a by-election. The trouble is, there is no longer any such thing as a safe Tory seat that is impervious to challenge by Reform UK, even with the charismatic Johnson standing.
If he did get elected, there's also the unfinished business of the three-month suspension imposed on him in the last parliament. Expert opinion varies on whether Johnson's first act as a newly elected MP would be to go away again for three months.
Would he transform the party's fortunes?
Not if the polls are anything to go by. A recent opinion poll did show that Johnson was the only candidate out of himself, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick who as leader might beat Nigel Farage and Reform, but only by a small margin (26 per cent to 23 per cent). Whether it would be worth the upheaval is highly debatable. There are possibly better options – James Cleverly, for example.
Johnson is also closely associated with Brexit and his 'oven-ready deal', and that project isn't as popular as it was. Definitely a wasting asset. Meanwhile, ex-Labour voters, notably in the red-wall seats gained so spectacularly in 2019, still feel betrayed about the failure of levelling up, while pro-Europe moderates in the former blue wall who defected to the Liberal Democrats loathe him.
Would the Tories want Johnson?
In the party, Johnson has collected many enemies, all too willing to tell the world why this untrustworthy, unreliable, cynical and compromised individual would be entirely unsuited to being premier, and even less cut out for the hard slog of being leader of the opposition.
He's always been trouble, and only his ability to win elections overcame the severe doubts about his character. These remain, but it's fair to add that the membership, even as he was being deposed, still loved him – though the MPs might prevent him from getting as far as a members' poll.
Less remarked upon than his supposed campaigning skills are the policy positions that are now deeply disliked among the Tory grassroots, such as net zero; his fiscal incontinence; and the level of legal migration under his famous post-Brexit 'Australian-style points-based system', which reached a record high. Uncharitably, it's been called the 'Boris wave' by his enemies. In a scrap for the right-wing vote with Farage, these would count as weak points.
Could it happen?
If Johnson were brought back, it would be the end of the Conservative Party. Keir Starmer often got the better of him back in the day, and would do so again, while Farage is a formidable rival.
The Tory party is so weak now that it would take more than a Johnson revival to rescue it. Indeed, the very reason why the party did so calamitously in the 2024 general election was its overall record in government – including the many disappointments, scandals and failures during the Johnson administration. In other words, Johnson is part of the problem and not part of the answer.
They need a fresher start, and a rethink on Brexit. The next Tory leader may not even be in parliament yet.
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