Why Jets' Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Cole Perfetti are more playoff-ready this season

New York Times

04-04-2025

If I told you this season's Winnipeg Jets are better than last season's model, would you believe me?
What if it became clear that Winnipeg is playing at a higher level right now than it did last season, even when compared only to the Jets' season-ending eight-game win streak? That might be an easier sell now that the Jets shut out Vegas, but it's been true since Winnipeg beat Dallas 4-1 on March 14. Winnipeg has won the territorial battle in a way that it didn't down the stretch last season.
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That was a good team, too, but the underlying numbers of this Jets team are better than the one that fell to Colorado in five playoff games.
Recently, they've been better than anyone else in the NHL in a lot of cases. No team has a better expected goals percentage over its last 10 games than Winnipeg. No team has given up fewer shots per minute while short-handed since the 4-Nations break. No team has given up fewer goals per minute at five-on-five.
The goaltending has remained great, while the penalty kill has improved enough to make up for Gabriel Vilardi's absence from the top power play.
Now that Winnipeg has put its original lines back together, there are a lot of signs under the hood that suggest these Jets are more legitimate Cup contenders than they were last season.
'You may have those analytics or those stats,' head coach Scott Arniel said. 'I just think that we're a confident group.'
We do have the stats. Winnipeg is controlling the play at a higher level now than it did last season, including its season-ending eight-game win streak. Here's how:
Scheifele and Connor are each on track to set new career high point totals. Given where they started from — Connor set the Jets 2.0 record with 93 points in 2021-22, while Scheifele has cleared 80 points three times, including this season — that's an incredible achievement.
Connor has already scored 91 points, needing only three more in Winnipeg's six remaining games to surpass his own Jets 2.0 record. Scheifele has 82 points, which brings him within one of 800 on his career and two points shy of his single-season best (84). These kinds of numbers make it possible that we miss the point when we look back at their 2024-25 seasons: yes, Connor and Scheifele have stepped up their game this season, but their biggest leaps forward have come in terms of their defensive impact.
Who had AI getting an assist off his face on their bingo card? 🤪 pic.twitter.com/msVUxCGe9w
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) April 4, 2025
Do you remember 2021-22, when Connor scored 93 points and the Jets missed the playoffs? His defensive impact was so poor that season that the Jets got outscored (by three) when he was on the ice during five-on-five sessions.
This season, the Jets are winning Connor's five-on-five minutes by 18 goals, which is the single best number of his NHL career. He and Scheifele are grading out as stars — second and third among healthy Central Division forwards — and their star turn is about ramping up their defensive game.
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There are still occasional moments of fear. One of Vegas' best chances against goaltender Eric Comrie on Thursday came when Jack Eichel stole a puck from Scheifele and centred it. However, the overall trend has been of much better defence without sacrificing any of the scoring that makes them great.
It's the improvements they've made during five-on-five that bode well for the playoffs — improvements that have helped the Jets win games with or without Vilardi on their wing.
There are still areas of Connor and Scheifele's game that could stand to improve. Their five-on-five shift length continues to lead the team, and it's rare to see them go off for a change when an offensive opportunity is available. This reduces the Jets' potential for 'hand-off' shifts, where multiple lines hem opponents in their zone for extended periods to the point of exhaustion and dramatically increase scoring odds.
To be clear, this is a nitpick, not the driving story. I would worry about the tendency to extend shifts against Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche in a way I wouldn't against Marco Rossi in Minnesota.
But the overall arc is ascent: Even if you limit the duo's performance to the Jets' eight-game win streak to end last season, you find them outscored 3-2 while earning 43.1 percent of shot attempts and 39.7 percent of expected goals.
Here's Connor's defensive zone heat map from last season, courtesy of Hockey Viz. Red indicates areas of the ice where teams got more shots against Winnipeg than average; blue indicates fewer shots against Winnipeg than average:
And here it is this season:
Last season's defensive zone results brought Connor dangerously close to being an empty-calorie scorer. This season's results make him one of the top forwards in the best division in the NHL. No, that doesn't guarantee playoff success, but Winnipeg can beat anybody in seven games if Connor and Scheifele control play.
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They're doing a better job of it right now — and throughout this season — than they did during the eight games at the end of last season that put visions of playoff glory in fans' minds.
What a difference a couple of months has made to Winnipeg's second line. Perfetti has been at the heart of it, learning to initiate contact on his way into corners, playing faster in all three zones and delivering the NHL's goal of the week:
Cole Perfetti did that. 😮‍💨
Electric Goal of the Week presented by @HyundaiCanada pic.twitter.com/SS5CXkrmVj
— NHL (@NHL) April 3, 2025
Nikolaj Ehlers has been flying, too, and just in time for what could be the most important stretch run of the pending unrestricted free agent's career. It doesn't seem like Ehlers will miss time despite leaving Thursday's game hurt, based on Arniel's postgame comments to reporters in Las Vegas.
That's phenomenal news for the Jets, because few secondary scoring lines beat their opposition quite this badly.
Winnipeg will need more from this line than it got from the Tyler Toffoli version last season. It will need more production than Ehlers has put together in any playoffs of his career.
To watch Perfetti and Vladislav Namestnikov play a feisty, puck-hounding game in all three zones is to believe they have more to give when the games get even tougher. It was encouraging that Perfetti was one of the Jets' most dangerous players against Los Angeles and Vegas, which are teams that make space tough to come by.
This line doesn't get the same heavy run against opposing top lines and top pairs that Scheifele's line gets. They need to be a strength for Winnipeg as a result and they're doing that. One simple, but telling frame of comparison: Toffoli had five points during the Jets' eight-game win streak to end last season. Perfetti has seven points in his last eight games right now.
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When I asked Arniel about Perfetti's year-over-year improvement, the Jets head coach pointed to Perfetti's resilience.
'I think what we've talked about is the mental part of it,' Arniel said. 'He recognizes that he's going to have highs and lows. He's going to have slumps; he's going to be in situations where he's going to have a bad game or a bad shift or a bad period.
'He's been able to get himself out of it this year faster than he's ever been able to (before).'
When Lowry's line runs hot, the Jets' middle six becomes the biggest non-Connor Hellebuyck strength of the team. When it runs cold, as it did for parts of February and March, you have to appreciate a good backcheck or board battle to get the most out of your viewing time.
Lowry's line has not dominated on the scoresheet the way it does in terms of flow of play, but there have been recent signs of life. Nino Niederreiter scored two points in four games with two groups of Swiss fans in attendance last week — a group connected to EHC Chur, Niederreiter's hometown team, and a group of his oldest friends. Neither group was aware the other had planned their trip, but it made for a lively atmosphere at Canada Life Centre, perhaps sparking Niederreiter's recent offensive push.
Mason Appleton scored twice on that homestand, and Lowry scored the insurance goal in Winnipeg's 4-0 win against Vegas on Thursday. I've opined before, wondering if this group needs a break from one of the hardest jobs in hockey.
Even among shutdown lines, it's rare for players to get such a steady diet of tough matchups, and I suspect it's exhausting to need to play 'perfect' hockey to achieve success. Lowry's line commits to every backcheck, board battle and contested puck in a way that's tough to match.
While they lost the flow of play battle against Vegas, Lowry's line got on the scoresheet again. If they're rejuvenated in any way, then the sum of all parts in Winnipeg's top-nine forward group should be more impressive come playoff time than it was a year ago.
A healthy Vilardi would work wonders, too.
(Photo of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey: Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)