Club World Cup group stage and what we learned

New York Times

4 hours ago

To anyone who managed to watch every minute of every group-stage game of the Club World Cup, we applaud you.
With 48 games played across 13 days, there has been endless action to unpack. We have had shock results, extreme weather conditions, and plenty of strikes that would be worthy of winning goal of the tournament already.
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For those who have not been glued to their television screens, what has caught the eye from the opening fortnight?
Allow The Athletic to catch you up on some interesting themes we have spotted…
There have been plenty of examples of the Club World Cup pitches not being up to standard, and it is affecting the way the players are playing in the United States.
As evidenced by the change in grip and aerodynamics of the balls themselves, small details matter to professionals operating at the highest level. With players so finely tuned to the zip of a quality, well-watered pitch, a yard of distance could be the difference between an underhit pass and an assist, so you can understand why comments are being made.
'The pitches aren't great at all. It holds up the ball, the ball barely bounces,' Jude Bellingham said after Real Madrid's win against Pachuca. 'It's tough on the knees as well. Hopefully, there's someone who will look at that going into the World Cup next year.'
The bounce of the ball has been particularly notable, even from television coverage, with a comical example from Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior in that Pachuca clash. Before taking a corner, the Brazil international throws the ball, expecting it to bounce back up with similar force. Instead, the ball barely reaches his knees as the turf swallows it up.
'It was a little bit dry,' said Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper Gregor Kobel after their first-game 0-0 draw against Fluminense.
'You can feel the turf beneath it, so the ball was not bouncing the way it usually bounces. It was a little bit soft. The ball didn't get the height it normally gets.'
Dortmund seemingly had similar issues in their second game as they failed to read the run of the ball in Lucas Ribeiro's solo finish for Mamelodi Sundowns. Ribeiro's heavy touch forward would typically have zipped off the turf, but the ball held up as defender Ramy Bensebaini slid in, allowing Ribeiro to run through the whole Dortmund defence in a goal that looked like a glitch from a 2002 video game.
Bellingham's reference to next year's World Cup feels pertinent given that little has changed in the pitch quality since the U.S. hosted the Copa America 12 months ago, with similar complaints dominating the post-match analysis among players and managers.
In the interest of sticking to our analytics principles, readers might be interested to know that AI-driven turf management does exist, with a new company, Turfcoach, allowing clubs to collect data on their pitch.
One of Turfcoach's research papers highlights the effects of surface and climate towards the tactics and performance of the team, meaning those who do best in this summer's tournament might be the ones who simply adapt best to the conditions.
The sweltering U.S. heat — and the creative approaches teams have taken to adapt — has been one of the tournament's most eye-catching aspects.
Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich housed their substitutes in the dressing room to shield them from the oppressive conditions in Cincinnati and Charlotte, while Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca cut training short, calling it 'impossible to train' under a code red heat warning.
With this tournament also acting as a dry run for next summer's World Cup, it raises the question: could this be the hottest World Cup on record? While historical weather data is limited before 2010, data from the last four World Cups — sourced from weather provider Visual Crossing — suggests the U.S. edition is likely to be the warmest in modern times.
How players and teams adapt to hot World Cups has always been a point of fascination, but next summer might take that challenge to another level.
Unlike an international World Cup, it feels a little trickier to spot any reliable tactical trends that unite teams from the group stage of the tournament. However, have we seen a disciplinary issue at the Club World Cup?
Players would be forgiven for (literally) feeling a little hot under the collar, but there have been 10 red cards across the 48 games played in the group stage. For context, that is more than each of the past three Champions League group stages after gameweek three, and more than the past two World Cup group stages combined (two in 2022 and three in 2018).
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All in all, there have been seven fouls for every yellow card shown — about average compared with other tournaments listed above. However, it may be the case that two Argentine clubs are doing a lot of the heavy lifting here. River Plate's 11 yellow cards and three reds across three games were rather shocking, with Marcos Acuna's red mist particularly notable as he chased Inter's Denzel Dumfries towards the tunnel before being tackled to the ground.
With 104 fouls, River were the only club to hit triple figures by this measure, nearly 40 more than Boca Juniors, who clocked up 67 fouls, five yellow cards and two reds — both against Benfica — as the Argentine contingent failed to control their emotions.
Ander Herrera's dismissal did not even see him get on the pitch, as he clashed with a member of tournament staff after showing his disdain for a VAR review for a penalty incident.
To balance things out, Boca's Group C opponents, Auckland City, were the only side not to receive a yellow card during the group stages.
At times, you might have to do some mental gymnastics or sophisticated data modelling to accurately determine whether a player can cut it if they move to a new league.
Some might be familiar with the 'Bundesliga tax', speaking to the idea that there is often an 'exchange rate' in a player's output when they transfer from one country to another.
Within Europe, for example, you can determine a league's strength by looking at clubs' performances from the respective leagues in European competitions, be it the Champions League, Europa League or Conference League. Therefore, if a player goes from League A to League B, you can adjust expectations accordingly.
However, aside from friendlies, we rarely get a decent calibration of this league exchange rate across continents, with previous iterations of the Club World Cup being a smaller selection of champions from the respective confederations.
This summer has provided more cross-pollination than ever, with Chelsea's clash with Los Angeles FC being the first time that a club from England had played a club from the U.S. in a competitive fixture. Sure, a single game between two teams is not going to provide a robust output on the respective league strengths, but it can be a good snapshot.
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There have been a fair few shocks already to help with this calibration. Inter Miami's 2-1 victory over Porto sent shockwaves through Portugal after an incredible winning free kick scored by a certain Lionel Messi. Botafogo shocked Paris Saint-Germain with a 1-0 victory and a disciplined defensive performance against the UEFA Champions League winners. Meanwhile, lowly Auckland City arguably had the result of the tournament with a 1-1 draw against Boca Juniors in their final group-stage game.
For all that we can use this information, the timing of the Club World Cup means some clubs might be taking the tournament more seriously than others. European leagues have come to an end, while South American and MLS teams are in a different stage of their conditioning, being halfway through their respective domestic seasons.
Still, any analysis can only work on the information it has been given, and there are positives to be taken from the fact that an intercontinental tournament has drummed up some clashes between leagues that have never faced off before.
The data models will be so happy.
It is not uncommon to see South American sides perform well in the Club World Cup.
In the previous iteration of the tournament, CONMEBOL has been the only true competitor (four wins) to UEFA in the number of victories (16) since its inaugural year in 2000.
In truth, that glory has been propped up by Brazil, who have the joint-second highest number of wins as a nation (level with England — four) across the tournament's history, behind only Spain (eight). Corinthians were the last Brazilian club to clinch the title in 2012, after Paolo Guerrero's header saw off Chelsea in a 1-0 victory.
While the Argentine pair of River and Boca went into self-destruct mode, Brazilian lights are shining bright once again this summer.
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Flamengo, Palmeiras, Botafogo and Fluminense have all advanced to the knockout stages, with Mexico's Monterrey (representing Concacaf) also joining the South American contingent. Just one loss between them across the group games shows that none of them are willing to roll over easily against the bullies from Europe.
With Botafogo and Palmeiras facing each other on Saturday, twisted logic might mean that fans of Brazilian football should be happy that at least one club will be guaranteed to make it to the quarter-finals. Of course, supporters of either side would not take kindly to the suggestion that they could not have progressed past European opposition themselves, such is the pride, optimism and quality that the pair possess.
Could a South American side go all the way this summer? European clubs remain the favourites to win the trophy on July 13, but given the fierce desire to make a dent in the tournament — coupled with favourable physical conditioning compared with other confederations — you would not bet against it.